I'm interested in seeing how accurate (or not) Polymarket is. It seems odd that Flanagan (MN Senate) keeps losing her lead in the polls and is now projected to win a much closer race than Brown in OH, yet Polymarket is at 89% for her to win and only 59% for Brown.
Fuel prices, inflation, etc. are going to crush the GOP in the midterms IMO. But, I wonder if there are areas to make up ground in states like MN (Ellison is trailing as incumbent AG, Flanagan is in a tough heat) where fraud was rampant and people are sick of the shit leftists like Walz peddled for so long.
Cooper +4
Ossoff +4
Moody +11
Marshall +5-6
Pappas +2
Flanagan +2
Hinson +3-4
Collins +3
Sullivan +2
Paxton +1
Rogers +1
Husted even
R 53 D 47
Still time for this to change…but that’s my best guess
"'Not only is there a swing away from the Republican Party compared to 2024, but the swing actually seems to be somewhat bigger in red America than in blue America, and that's putting these states that Trump won easily very much into play,' said David Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College."
Democratic surge predicted to hit Republican states hardest, scrambling Senate strategy | Reuters
@snarlcakes he was elected to close the border and bring down costs. He closed the border and then did what he wanted. The opposite of what he was elected to do. Now we will bring the freaks and crazies back. This is on him. He is a failure.
He's closed the boarder, for now. They haven't done anything but put a band-aid on the issue.
The minute a dem gains office, there goes the E.O.
That's pretty sad. I thought Dems cared about the country and processes?
What have pubs done to rectify the issue other then a worthless order that's only good until the current guy gets out of office?
It's almost like they want this issue to continue so they can run on it....
They’ve done what the Dems didn’t & won’t, which is enforce the laws they swore an oath too. What else needs to be done?
I'm interested in seeing how accurate (or not) Polymarket is. It seems odd that Flanagan (MN Senate) keeps losing her lead in the polls and is now projected to win a much closer race than Brown in OH, yet Polymarket is at 89% for her to win and only 59% for Brown.
Fuel prices, inflation, etc. are going to crush the GOP in the midterms IMO. But, I wonder if there are areas to make up ground in states like MN (Ellison is trailing as incumbent AG, Flanagan is in a tough heat) where fraud was rampant and people are sick of the shit leftists like Walz peddled for so long.
Cooper +4
Ossoff +4
Moody +11
Marshall +5-6
Pappas +2
Flanagan +2
Hinson +3-4
Collins +3
Sullivan +2
Paxton +1
Rogers +1
Husted even
R 53 D 47
Still time for this to change…but that’s my best guess
I think you're being hopeful. I think the baseline right now is probably D 51-49. I don't think that will happen. I think electoral forces will shift things one way or the other and the most likely endings are either GOP holds on at 50-50 or D's take over at 52-48.
I think the Dems probably have about a 60% chance right now of winning the Senate. At best. They are in the lead, but it's too close to feel safe.
EDIT: In other words, if you want a genuine prediction, I say Dems 52-48, but it's still a month out, so ask me again in 3.5 weeks.
@snarlcakes he was elected to close the border and bring down costs. He closed the border and then did what he wanted. The opposite of what he was elected to do. Now we will bring the freaks and crazies back. This is on him. He is a failure.
He's closed the boarder, for now. They haven't done anything but put a band-aid on the issue.
The minute a dem gains office, there goes the E.O.
That's pretty sad. I thought Dems cared about the country and processes?
What have pubs done to rectify the issue other then a worthless order that's only good until the current guy gets out of office?
It's almost like they want this issue to continue so they can run on it....
well the data shows that border crossings and Muslim immigration is down bigly. Seems like a start.
As previously mentioned, I’d like to see someone run on immigration reform. The process is broken and can be fixed to benefit most.
Dems take 235-240 House seats and at least 53 Senate seats. Only IA, TX, ME, and possibly AK will be remotely competitive.
"At least 53?" If the Dems win every single one of those races, they'll hit 53. 53 is the ceiling for the Dems, not the floor.
Nebraska and Kansas have competitive races.
It’s conceivable Trump would work with a Dem-controlled Congress to enact immigration reform. Depends on what he wants for a legacy.I’d like to see someone run on immigration reform. The process is broken and can be fixed to benefit most.
Why would Republicans be pouring this much $$ into the FL and TX governors races if they weren't anticipating a bloodbath?
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/2105902591041503246
Looks like Iowa is going to elect a Democratic governor. The Senate, though, is TBD.
Latest Polymarket odds (governor): Sand 85%
2026 Iowa Governor - Lahn vs. Sand | RealClearPolling
First the farmers turned on Trump. Now it's the fishermen.
Some fishermen turn on Trump amid fuel costs and trade war | AP News
Gas prices. "Same fate."
High gas prices mean GOP could feel 'same fate' as Dems in midterms: expert | Fox Business
Florida.
https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/2106753641625637281
DeSantis is top notch. Donalds is middle of the road candidate. Trump endorsed too early. Jolly is a horrible human. Donalds will win but they will probably have to spend more money than they want to spend in Florida
November 3 is just five weeks from today (9/29), with early voting already underway in some states and several more jumping in within the next seven days.
Here are the latest Real Clear Politics polling averages:
Texas Senate: Talarico (D) +2.9
Ohio Senate: Brown (D) + 3.7
Michigan: El-Sayed (D) +3.3
Iowa: Turek (D) +0.5
Maine: Jackson (D) +0.9
New Hampshire: Pappas (D) +6.4
Alaska: Peltola (D) +2.3
Georgia: Ossoff (D) +8.0
North Carolina: Cooper (D) +8.6
Generic Congressional Vote: Dems +8.7
Might be a good time for predictions. I say Dems end up with between 230 and 233 House seats.
Still very unsure about the Senate. The above numbers bode well for Dems, but several polls are within the margin of error. I think the prediction markets might be more reliable at this point. (Polymarket says 62% chance Dems take the Senate).
Because recent polling has been so fvcking accurate..right.....?
Always wrong..hickory..