November 3 is just five weeks from today (9/29), with early voting already underway in some states and several more jumping in within the next seven days.
Here are the latest Real Clear Politics polling averages:
Texas Senate: Talarico (D) +2.9
Ohio Senate: Brown (D) + 3.7
Michigan: El-Sayed (D) +3.3
Iowa: Turek (D) +0.5
Maine: Jackson (D) +0.9
New Hampshire: Pappas (D) +6.4
Alaska: Peltola (D) +2.3
Georgia: Ossoff (D) +8.0
North Carolina: Cooper (D) +8.6
Generic Congressional Vote: Dems +8.7
Might be a good time for predictions. I say Dems end up with between 230 and 233 House seats.
Still very unsure about the Senate. The above numbers bode well for Dems, but several polls are within the margin of error. I think the prediction markets might be more reliable at this point. (Polymarket says 62% chance Dems take the Senate).
November 3 is just five weeks from today (9/29), with early voting already underway in some states and several more jumping in within the next seven days.
Here are the latest Real Clear Politics polling averages:
Texas Senate: Talarico (D) +2.9
Ohio Senate: Brown (D) + 3.7
Michigan: El-Sayed (D) +3.3
Iowa: Turek (D) +0.5
Maine: Jackson (D) +0.9
New Hampshire: Pappas (D) +6.4
Alaska: Peltola (D) +2.3
Georgia: Ossoff (D) +8.0
North Carolina: Cooper (D) +8.6
Generic Congressional Vote: Dems +8.7
Might be a good time for predictions. I say Dems end up with between 230 and 233 House seats.
Still very unsure about the Senate. The above numbers bode well for Dems, but several polls are within the margin of error. I think the prediction markets might be more reliable at this point. (Polymarket says 62% chance Dems take the Senate).
Dems take House. Pubs hold Senate. North Carolina flips. Georgia and Texas hold
Might be a good time for predictions. I say Dems end up with between 230 and 233 House seats.
Still very unsure about the Senate. The above numbers bode well for Dems, but several polls are within the margin of error. I think the prediction markets might be more reliable at this point. (Polymarket says 62% chance Dems take the Senate).
House is in the bag. I'm still leery of getting too amped up about the Senate. Damn near need an inside straight to pull it off.
November 3 is just five weeks from today (9/29), with early voting already underway in some states and several more jumping in within the next seven days.
Here are the latest Real Clear Politics polling averages:
Texas Senate: Talarico (D) +2.9
Ohio Senate: Brown (D) + 3.7
Michigan: El-Sayed (D) +3.3
Iowa: Turek (D) +0.5
Maine: Jackson (D) +0.9
New Hampshire: Pappas (D) +6.4
Alaska: Peltola (D) +2.3
Georgia: Ossoff (D) +8.0
North Carolina: Cooper (D) +8.6
Generic Congressional Vote: Dems +8.7
Might be a good time for predictions. I say Dems end up with between 230 and 233 House seats.
Still very unsure about the Senate. The above numbers bode well for Dems, but several polls are within the margin of error. I think the prediction markets might be more reliable at this point. (Polymarket says 62% chance Dems take the Senate).
Dems win the House easily and GOP hangs onto the Senate.
Dems take 235-240 House seats and at least 53 Senate seats. Only IA, TX, ME, and possibly AK will be remotely competitive.
Damn near need an inside straight to pull it off.
I don't think it's as big of a get as you think at the moment. It's effectively 47-47 right now, with Alaska, Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Maine being the closest six races. Five of them are currently leaning blue. It's not really pulling an inside straight as much as it's seeing if the river card gives either party a second pair.
Edit to add: if the GOP pulls out Michigan and ends up on 50, the progressives need to be kicked out of the party.
Dems take 235-240 House seats and at least 53 Senate seats. Only IA, TX, ME, and possibly AK will be remotely competitive.
"At least 53?" If the Dems win every single one of those races, they'll hit 53. 53 is the ceiling for the Dems, not the floor.
Center for Politics (Sabato) at UVa has just moved eleven (11) House races toward Dems.
The trend for the last several weeks is clear; nothing is moving the other way. Dems have the momentum.
I don't think it's as big of a get as you think at the moment. It's effectively 47-47 right now, with Alaska, Texas, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Maine being the closest six races. Five of them are currently leaning blue. It's not really pulling an inside straight as much as it's seeing if the river card gives either party a second pair.
Just one state, but great to see this.
Virginia early voting surges, more than 220,000 ballots cast ahead of election
Ken Paxton, G.O.P. Nominee in Texas, Privately Said Trump’s Convention Hurt Him - The New York Times
There's evidence to support Paxton's claim. For example, Real Clear Politics' Generic Congressional Vote, which averages results of other major polls, showed a sharp rise in support for Democrats after the convention, while Republicans’ support stayed about the same.
Trump's a drag.
I didn't realize Hinson is a cutie. Iowa is a lock for the GOP. Write it in blood.
Polymarket now has Talarico up in Texas 62-39. On August 11, it was even money.
Trends. They're horrible for MAGA.
Polymarket now has Talarico up in Texas 62-39. On August 11, it was even money.
Trends. They're horrible for MAGA.
Internal Dem polls have him down 1…which means 5