I'm interested in seeing how accurate (or not) Polymarket is. It seems odd that Flanagan (MN Senate) keeps losing her lead in the polls and is now projected to win a much closer race than Brown in OH, yet Polymarket is at 89% for her to win and only 59% for Brown.
Fuel prices, inflation, etc. are going to crush the GOP in the midterms IMO. But, I wonder if there are areas to make up ground in states like MN (Ellison is trailing as incumbent AG, Flanagan is in a tough heat) where fraud was rampant and people are sick of the shit leftists like Walz peddled for so long.
Polymarket was superior to polling in '24. I expect the same this time around.
Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? - Vanderbilt University
He's incompetent and has become a significant drag on the party. He should NOT be making campaign appearances in swing districts as even White House and campaign officials acknowledge a presidential visit in a competitive swing district is a net negative for the local Republican candidate(s).
Trump economy approval hits new low, AP-NORC poll finds | AP News
Polymarket now has Talarico up in Texas 62-39. On August 11, it was even money.
Trends. They're horrible for MAGA.
Remember, the markets are reporting odds, not vote spread. 62/39 is still a very close election.
I acknowledged this race is close earlier in the thread. His lead in the polls, as I mentioned previously, is single digits. I never suggested he was up by 23 points in any poll.
Polymarket odds reflect the probability of a candidate winning, not the exact margin or how close the final vote will be.
As of this evening, the market is currently priced at 65% for Talarico. That means traders believe there's a 65% chance Talarico will win. It doesn't mean that Talarico will win by 65% of the vote.
https://twitter.com/Polymarket/status/2105632067451036124
Are you taking polymarket serious for politics?
Those are great odds if it hits.
I'm interested in seeing how accurate (or not) Polymarket is. It seems odd that Flanagan (MN Senate) keeps losing her lead in the polls and is now projected to win a much closer race than Brown in OH, yet Polymarket is at 89% for her to win and only 59% for Brown.
Fuel prices, inflation, etc. are going to crush the GOP in the midterms IMO. But, I wonder if there are areas to make up ground in states like MN (Ellison is trailing as incumbent AG, Flanagan is in a tough heat) where fraud was rampant and people are sick of the shit leftists like Walz peddled for so long.
I agrees. My take. I assume the amount betted is going to matter the most with accuracy. And you will see some races move a lot ok the day of election or close to it. Especially, since this is a midterm and not a Presidential election. Also, politics is very emotional and these betting markets are relatively new. Someone is going to make a sh#t ton of money off of them. You should see ROIs compress in the future as people figure it out.
@snarlcakes he was elected to close the border and bring down costs. He closed the border and then did what he wanted. The opposite of what he was elected to do. Now we will bring the freaks and crazies back. This is on him. He is a failure.
He's closed the boarder, for now. They haven't done anything but put a band-aid on the issue.
The minute a dem gains office, there goes the E.O.
@snarlcakes I’m 55 and have never banged anyone over 35. I don’t see that changing. I’m probably just done for good. As I type this I’m getting my ankles stripped by a man in a man bun and I don’t even care.
You have got to stop. Between soccer, Trump's grade, AI, and now celibacy, I can't take it anymore. You need to rethink life and get yourself together.
That's your coach.
@snarlcakes it’s a discipline I clearly lack. Admittedly, I never had the courage in my heart to say no to a chubby 6.
I am flawed.
With enough alcohol, you can justify any woman as at least a 6.
@snarlcakes he was elected to close the border and bring down costs. He closed the border and then did what he wanted. The opposite of what he was elected to do. Now we will bring the freaks and crazies back. This is on him. He is a failure.
He's closed the boarder, for now. They haven't done anything but put a band-aid on the issue.
The minute a dem gains office, there goes the E.O.
So........ don't vote Dem?
You could write and pass the most perfect immigration/ border law imaginable. There will always be some play in the joints. You can always just not staff the border since it is a physical thing.
As long as one party believes in open borders any solution will be a "band-aid".
@snarlcakes he was elected to close the border and bring down costs. He closed the border and then did what he wanted. The opposite of what he was elected to do. Now we will bring the freaks and crazies back. This is on him. He is a failure.
He's closed the boarder, for now. They haven't done anything but put a band-aid on the issue.
The minute a dem gains office, there goes the E.O.
That's pretty sad. I thought Dems cared about the country and processes?
I'm interested in seeing how accurate (or not) Polymarket is. It seems odd that Flanagan (MN Senate) keeps losing her lead in the polls and is now projected to win a much closer race than Brown in OH, yet Polymarket is at 89% for her to win and only 59% for Brown.
Fuel prices, inflation, etc. are going to crush the GOP in the midterms IMO. But, I wonder if there are areas to make up ground in states like MN (Ellison is trailing as incumbent AG, Flanagan is in a tough heat) where fraud was rampant and people are sick of the shit leftists like Walz peddled for so long.
Polymarket was superior to polling in '24. I expect the same this time around.
Are Betting Markets Better than Polling in Predicting Political Elections? - Vanderbilt University
For me, it makes sense and it doesn't at the same time. I don't know enough about how the $ of bets, who is placing the bets, etc. impacts the odds. It does seem to move even more quickly with significant changes than polling does (see Gavin's Presidential Nomination hopes).
@jdb they will destroy this country. I think it’s pretty obvious by now
Never lower your standards. Never listen to the losers. 35 is definitely too old for you. Either ~27 when they’re the hottest to trot (ideal) or 16-21 when they’re too inexperienced to know you’re 55 instead of 35.I’m 55 and have never banged anyone over 35. I don’t see that changing. I’m probably just done for good.
Women haven’t changed, just your mindset.
@snarlcakes he was elected to close the border and bring down costs. He closed the border and then did what he wanted. The opposite of what he was elected to do. Now we will bring the freaks and crazies back. This is on him. He is a failure.
He's closed the boarder, for now. They haven't done anything but put a band-aid on the issue.
The minute a dem gains office, there goes the E.O.
That's pretty sad. I thought Dems cared about the country and processes?
We sure know the Pubs don't care about processes but it's ok for them to shit on the constitution because that's your side.
@hurryinghoosiers you’re impervious to data. But my hope is that you will someday see the light