start with a blank piece of paper, and design the perfect Democrat to win in 2028, you draw a picture of Andy Beshear. It's not even a debate.
Only if I don't choose to run 
@snarlcakes it's not tho. centrist dems aren't for open borders defund cradle to grave benes and all the rest. now. how many centrist dems are left i don't know. but clinton etc (and biden historically) had no desire for soft crime open borders etc.
Who are these centrist Dems? Spanberger promised to govern as a moderate including no redistricting and then once sworn into office immediately implemented policies that would make California blush. Shapiro promised over and over to sign that school choice bill and as soon as the Republican legislature put it on his desk he vetoed it. Even Fetterman votes with the radicals every time. All Dems are insane radicals.
You guys don't have to go to crazy town to try make the point that some people benefit more than others from an increasing stock market or expanding economy.
It's not crazy town. GDP is a measure of how much your national economy is producing. Great. But economies don't vote. People do. And the voter who is reaping the benefits of a growing GDP has the exact same number of votes as the voter who isn't. This, ultimately, is a big reason why Biden appeared so out of touch. He kept touting all these economic indicators. But none of those indicators translated to individual voters feeling better about their personal economic situation.
If you can pair a growing GDP with a shrinking Gini coefficient, then you might be able to start translating these high-level indicators to street-level voter opinion. They are still just abstractions, but at least then you are combining different abstractions that target different data to get a clearer picture.
I'll try this another way. If the economy was in a recession in 24 and the market was down 15-20%, instead of up 15-20% you think the votes would have been the same? You don't think Trump would have won by a wider margin?
Maybe? Probably? What I'm saying is, it wouldn't be the recession itself that had the biggest effect. It would be the incidental ways in which the recession is felt by voters.
@snarlcakes it's not tho. centrist dems aren't for open borders defund cradle to grave benes and all the rest. now. how many centrist dems are left i don't know. but clinton etc (and biden historically) had no desire for soft crime open borders etc.
Who are these centrist Dems? Spanberger promised to govern as a moderate including no redistricting and then once sworn into office immediately implemented policies that would make California blush. Shapiro promised over and over to sign that school choice bill and as soon as the Republican legislature put it on his desk he vetoed it. Even Fetterman votes with the radicals every time. All Dems are insane radicals.
Josh Shapiro did bitch out on school choice.
He also:
- Accelerated the lowering of PA’s corporate tax rate
- Instituted permitting reform that has dramatically cut approval timelines for businesses
- Stood up to shit libs that want to kill fracking in PA
- Accelerated state trooper hiring
- Removed 4 year degree requirements for the vast majority of government jobs
He has parts of his track record that could lead one to fairly describe him as a moderate. But yes, people like Spanberger, Mark Kelly, Beshear, Buttigieg are only nominally moderate as far as I can tell.
@snarlcakes it's not tho. centrist dems aren't for open borders defund cradle to grave benes and all the rest. now. how many centrist dems are left i don't know. but clinton etc (and biden historically) had no desire for soft crime open borders etc.
Who are these centrist Dems? Spanberger promised to govern as a moderate including no redistricting and then once sworn into office immediately implemented policies that would make California blush. Shapiro promised over and over to sign that school choice bill and as soon as the Republican legislature put it on his desk he vetoed it. Even Fetterman votes with the radicals every time. All Dems are insane radicals.
Josh Shapiro did bitch out on school choice.
He also:
- Accelerated the lowering of PA’s corporate tax rate
- Instituted permitting reform that has dramatically cut approval timelines for businesses
- Stood up to shit libs that want to kill fracking in PA
- Accelerated state trooper hiring
- Removed 4 year degree requirements for the vast majority of government jobs
He has parts of his track record that could lead one to fairly describe him as a moderate. But yes, people like Spanberger, Mark Kelly, Beshear, Buttigieg are only nominally moderate as far as I can tell.
The problem with folks like you and DBM is that you think "moderate Democrat" means "someone who was elected as a Democrat, but actually always behaves like a conservative Republican." If a moderate Democrat does actually run, they aren't getting your vote, anyway. You don't matter in this discussion. You are, and will remain, loyal Republicans, no matter what. But most voters are to the left of you, and they can be swayed by moderate Dems that you despise as actually leftists in disguise.
@goat I vote Democrat more than any right winger on this board. Just voted in a Democrat primary a few weeks ago.
Don’t you ever mistake my ability to discern between moderate in affect and moderate in policy/ governance as some kind of blind partisanship again.
But if you like, I could offer you some pointers on how to gain the same level of discernment.
@goat I vote Democrat more than any right winger on this board. Just voted in a Democrat primary a few weeks ago.
Don’t you ever mistake my ability to discern between moderate in affect and moderate in policy/ governance as some kind of blind partisanship again.
But if you like, I could offer you some pointers on how to gain the same level of discernment.
@goat I want to be fully transparent. I too can decipher between the two. You have sh#t libs and super duper sh#t libs. I'm joking, you're all Marxists to me.
@goat I vote Democrat more than any right winger on this board. Just voted in a Democrat primary a few weeks ago.
Don’t you ever mistake my ability to discern between moderate in affect and moderate in policy/ governance as some kind of blind partisanship again.
But if you like, I could offer you some pointers on how to gain the same level of discernment.
@goat I want to be fully transparent. I too can decipher between the two. You have sh#t libs and super duper sh#t libs. I'm joking, you're all Marxists to me.
I know. And that's fine. Support what you believe. But it's why you also don't matter in an election. Hell, most of us don't matter. Majority of people on this forum will always vote. We don't need GOTV drives. And most of us will always vote for the same party. If we weren't like that, this forum would probably suck for us. It is what it is.
I'd stop reading those sources, unless they're claiming it won't drop back to prewar levels until the end of the year. That's a reasonable take. However, if the war ends tomorrow the price of gasoline will drop. The question is how much and how fast.
Seriously, I'd be happy to read any sources that you can find from a fuel analyst or oil representative that will state otherwise and explain their reasoning (aka, not a journalist, politician, or podcaster who just goes off of headlines. Guys that can back their opinions up with non-partisan government reports and statistics).
Something to bear in mind is that the current price of oil is what it costs to buy a barrel of crude oil today (not refined into gasoline). While that does have a small impact on the current price of gasoline, at the end of the day, it is all about supply and demand of what is currently in stock / reserve, what amount has been processed, and the reestablishment of the supply chain back to pre-war levels for market stability.
15%-20% of the world's oil has now been cut off for two months. Those effects have not actually been felt yet because all countries have been processing their current crude inventory. We are currently processing our reserves and exporting RECORD amounts of our own crude (and that is only going to go up over the next month), while also having not increased production. Gasoline distribution companies are not going to magically lower prices back down until the current oil storage levels in this country are filled back up to and operating at pre-war levels (ie. after two to three months of uninterrupted delivery).
Even then, they are going to reduce refined gas prices gradually. We are up $2+ from pre-war levels. Even with things returning to normal, I can nearly guarantee that they will only drop it by $0.20 to $.30 a month after the supply chain has been restored (which is a minimum of two months away). So dropping to pre-war levels by the beginning of 2027 is the best-case scenario (2 months reestablished supply chains = June / July, $0.30 cent drop per month afterward). Call me a cynic, but I don't think things will go even that smoothly. All it takes is a faction of Iranian jihadists trying to keep the war alive or even Israel launching another offensive and things go right back up again.
And to be clear, I am absolutely not "rooting" for this to happen. This is just the reality of the situation.
The average price of regular gas today is 4.55. Are you predicting it would take at least 2 months to get it to drop to 4.30ish range if the war ended today? If so, we're not going to agree. Luckily, the war will end eventually and we'll get to find out how quickly the price moves.
Good news.
https://twitter.com/i/status/2052548863492272396
I'd stop reading those sources, unless they're claiming it won't drop back to prewar levels until the end of the year. That's a reasonable take. However, if the war ends tomorrow the price of gasoline will drop. The question is how much and how fast.
Seriously, I'd be happy to read any sources that you can find from a fuel analyst or oil representative that will state otherwise and explain their reasoning (aka, not a journalist, politician, or podcaster who just goes off of headlines. Guys that can back their opinions up with non-partisan government reports and statistics).
Something to bear in mind is that the current price of oil is what it costs to buy a barrel of crude oil today (not refined into gasoline). While that does have a small impact on the current price of gasoline, at the end of the day, it is all about supply and demand of what is currently in stock / reserve, what amount has been processed, and the reestablishment of the supply chain back to pre-war levels for market stability.
15%-20% of the world's oil has now been cut off for two months. Those effects have not actually been felt yet because all countries have been processing their current crude inventory. We are currently processing our reserves and exporting RECORD amounts of our own crude (and that is only going to go up over the next month), while also having not increased production. Gasoline distribution companies are not going to magically lower prices back down until the current oil storage levels in this country are filled back up to and operating at pre-war levels (ie. after two to three months of uninterrupted delivery).
Even then, they are going to reduce refined gas prices gradually. We are up $2+ from pre-war levels. Even with things returning to normal, I can nearly guarantee that they will only drop it by $0.20 to $.30 a month after the supply chain has been restored (which is a minimum of two months away). So dropping to pre-war levels by the beginning of 2027 is the best-case scenario (2 months reestablished supply chains = June / July, $0.30 cent drop per month afterward). Call me a cynic, but I don't think things will go even that smoothly. All it takes is a faction of Iranian jihadists trying to keep the war alive or even Israel launching another offensive and things go right back up again.
And to be clear, I am absolutely not "rooting" for this to happen. This is just the reality of the situation.
The average price of regular gas today is 4.55. Are you predicting it would take at least 2 months to get it to drop to 4.30ish range if the war ended today? If so, we're not going to agree. Luckily, the war will end eventually and we'll get to find out how quickly the price moves.
Good news.
https://twitter.com/i/status/2052548863492272396
The only problem with that is that it is literally a lie. Gas prices went up today, and the market went down.
Good news.
LOL. I'm going to assume the Readers added context wasn't there when you posted this.