@snarlcakes what was GDP growth under Biden compared to Trump? Such growth is great, if everything else is working. More profits with inflation isn't good. AI layoffs aren't going to help. "We know food is high for you, but look how much more money Musk has" probably isn't a winning campaign. Maybe so.
Will you start by acknowledging Biden and Obama's dismal record on real wages?
I'd stop reading those sources, unless they're claiming it won't drop back to prewar levels until the end of the year. That's a reasonable take. However, if the war ends tomorrow the price of gasoline will drop. The question is how much and how fast.
Seriously, I'd be happy to read any sources that you can find from a fuel analyst or oil representative that will state otherwise and explain their reasoning (aka, not a journalist, politician, or podcaster who just goes off of headlines. Guys that can back their opinions up with non-partisan government reports and statistics).
Something to bear in mind is that the current price of oil is what it costs to buy a barrel of crude oil today (not refined into gasoline). While that does have a small impact on the current price of gasoline, at the end of the day, it is all about supply and demand of what is currently in stock / reserve, what amount has been processed, and the reestablishment of the supply chain back to pre-war levels for market stability.
15%-20% of the world's oil has now been cut off for two months. Those effects have not actually been felt yet because all countries have been processing their current crude inventory. We are currently processing our reserves and exporting RECORD amounts of our own crude (and that is only going to go up over the next month), while also having not increased production. Gasoline distribution companies are not going to magically lower prices back down until the current oil storage levels in this country are filled back up to and operating at pre-war levels (ie. after two to three months of uninterrupted delivery).
Even then, they are going to reduce refined gas prices gradually. We are up $2+ from pre-war levels. Even with things returning to normal, I can nearly guarantee that they will only drop it by $0.20 to $.30 a month after the supply chain has been restored (which is a minimum of two months away). So dropping to pre-war levels by the beginning of 2027 is the best-case scenario (2 months reestablished supply chains = June / July, $0.30 cent drop per month afterward). Call me a cynic, but I don't think things will go even that smoothly. All it takes is a faction of Iranian jihadists trying to keep the war alive or even Israel launching another offensive and things go right back up again.
And to be clear, I am absolutely not "rooting" for this to happen. This is just the reality of the situation.
Perhaps we need to rework and rebuild refineries to process light, sweet crude instead of the older, heavier variety? That would be a sensible step and I have to imagine AI could help on the technological co-development to do so more efficiently and economically.
@snarlcakes all being equal, yes, the stronger the market the better. But at the moment it is the answer to "food and oil are high, but the market". In that context it isn't going to work very well.
November is a long way off. But he has given a lot of commercials to Ds that he is out of touch.
Ultimately, Trump and the Trump-led MAGA movement will be seen as a disaster for the GOP. It will be seen as an embarrassing and destructive time in US history as well.
You've been ringing that bell for 10 plus years now. Is your arm tired yet?
A good friend will bail you out of jail, but your best friend will be sitting next to you in the cell saying "that was f***ing awesome"
@snarlcakes all being equal, yes, the stronger the market the better. But at the moment it is the answer to "food and oil are high, but the market". In that context it isn't going to work very well.
November is a long way off. But he has given a lot of commercials to Ds that he is out of touch.
I initially responded to Butch's post that the stock market performance won't matter in key races this fall. It's was an absurd claim. Trump's polling numbers would be worse if the market was down 15%. I agree other factors matter as well. I'm not sure we disagree that much.
Republicans will lose the midterms but not over inflation or thr economy.
https://twitter.com/i/status/2050792376042455389
Republicans will lose the midterms but not over inflation or thr economy.
Let's get you on record then. Are you saying House and Senate?
Republicans will lose the midterms but not over inflation or thr economy.
Let's get you on record then. Are you saying House and Senate?
Correct. Senate too. NC and ME are gone. IA, OH, and AK are looking very bad. Texas and SC could truly flip if Cornyn and Graham are the nominees.
I'd stop reading those sources, unless they're claiming it won't drop back to prewar levels until the end of the year. That's a reasonable take. However, if the war ends tomorrow the price of gasoline will drop. The question is how much and how fast.
Seriously, I'd be happy to read any sources that you can find from a fuel analyst or oil representative that will state otherwise and explain their reasoning (aka, not a journalist, politician, or podcaster who just goes off of headlines. Guys that can back their opinions up with non-partisan government reports and statistics).
Something to bear in mind is that the current price of oil is what it costs to buy a barrel of crude oil today (not refined into gasoline). While that does have a small impact on the current price of gasoline, at the end of the day, it is all about supply and demand of what is currently in stock / reserve, what amount has been processed, and the reestablishment of the supply chain back to pre-war levels for market stability.
15%-20% of the world's oil has now been cut off for two months. Those effects have not actually been felt yet because all countries have been processing their current crude inventory. We are currently processing our reserves and exporting RECORD amounts of our own crude (and that is only going to go up over the next month), while also having not increased production. Gasoline distribution companies are not going to magically lower prices back down until the current oil storage levels in this country are filled back up to and operating at pre-war levels (ie. after two to three months of uninterrupted delivery).
Even then, they are going to reduce refined gas prices gradually. We are up $2+ from pre-war levels. Even with things returning to normal, I can nearly guarantee that they will only drop it by $0.20 to $.30 a month after the supply chain has been restored (which is a minimum of two months away). So dropping to pre-war levels by the beginning of 2027 is the best-case scenario (2 months reestablished supply chains = June / July, $0.30 cent drop per month afterward). Call me a cynic, but I don't think things will go even that smoothly. All it takes is a faction of Iranian jihadists trying to keep the war alive or even Israel launching another offensive and things go right back up again.
And to be clear, I am absolutely not "rooting" for this to happen. This is just the reality of the situation.
The average price of regular gas today is 4.55. Are you predicting it would take at least 2 months to get it to drop to 4.30ish range if the war ended today? If so, we're not going to agree. Luckily, the war will end eventually and we'll get to find out how quickly the price moves.
The average price of regular gas today is 4.55. Are you predicting it would take at least 2 months to get it to drop to 4.30ish range if the war ended today? If so, we're not going to agree. Luckily, the war will end eventually and we'll get to find out how quickly the price moves.
Yes. I believe that.
This is a decent article that explains a little better what I was trying to say in posts above.
(Edit)
However, one thing I will add is that Trump has more leverage over high-level CEO's than the average president. He will absolutely, positively push to get prices down as fast as possible (AKA threaten the oil execs with some kind of retribution that is likely illegal but since it is obvious at this point that nobody is going to hold this administration to task for any illegal activity, will probably be believed). The recovery here will likely be better than other countries.
Is this bad?
https://twitter.com/i/status/2052388458669244542
https://twitter.com/i/status/2052412640786513965
https://twitter.com/i/status/2052438370760929464
@dbmhoosier foreclosures up a third from a year ago. how bad that is i don't know. many are in fla which might reflect second homes and condos etc.
Correct. Senate too. NC and ME are gone. IA, OH, and AK are looking very bad. Texas and SC could truly flip if Cornyn and Graham are the nominees.
I'm with Snarl in that I think the Senate will be 50/50 at worst. Trumps approval can literally not really get much worse at this point, so it will likely go up a little by November. The Indiana primaries have proven that Trump still has significant pull with Republican turnout.
It's an interesting day when I think the Republicans have a better outlook in elections than DBM does.
@squeakyclean thanks. I just think you will see the market move quicker in the beginning. For example, using the same numbers, I think gas would drop 60-90 cents in the first 2 months.
Ultimately, Trump and the Trump-led MAGA movement will be seen as a disaster for the GOP. It will be seen as an embarrassing and destructive time in US history as well.
You've been ringing that bell for 10 plus years now. Is your arm tired yet?
You've been ignoring that bell for 10 years...have you checked for excessive ear wax buildup?