@snarlcakes Twenty and others are wrong to presume that because Trump's policies have been bad that people will vote for Dems. Our electorate is dumb but I would hope not that dumb. The left hasn't changed. Recognizing of course it's only a slim set that determines elections. Back to Trump, he's been terrible. Credit for the border, which is critically important, and changing the narrative and rhetoric on public safety, but the faults we witnessed with his chaotic handling of Covid are appearing again from the war to tariffs, etc. He ran on the representation that costs would come down. They haven't. Gas is nearly $5.00 per gallon. His handling of the war is erratic at best. His messaging gives little confidence to anyone. His tariffs, ignoring the fact that he blatantly lies about them or unimaginably doesn't understand how they operate, is a nightmare for American businesses. I don't mind that he fires people. I prefer that to Biden and others not doing so. But in some ways he operates with the polar of DEI - loyalty to himself, not merit. It's the same end: an incompetent administration.
The parties need a reboot.
Even when they were doing it every 10 years, it was often done to benefit the party in charge. I would rather districts have uneven populations than parties getting redraw the lines to benefit themselves. Voters should get to choose their representative, not the other way around.
The states have uneven populations (can't change that) and so we are already used to having uneven representation on a per capita basis.
Not saying that gerrymandering still doesn't happen. I'm just saying that as nice as it would be to have a fair and balanced redistricting that properly represents a state, you can't lock that in forever. Those populations will change over time and districts need to be reevaluated.
Who started the redistricting bs?
You might get yourself checked for dementia.
The answer btw is your orange lord and savior.
Democrats started it. Look at all the states in the NE. All gerrymandered to the max. Best scenario for Republicans is all 50 states draw free and fair maps. Dems can't have that though. Texas was simply trying to undo some of the wrongs Dems had already made. But Republicans are cowards and refuse to play the games Dems do.
you should check your timeline.
I wish they didn't approve it, we are setting dangerous precedents. But to be slightly fair to Virginia RE your comments, recall Texas began this stupidity.
Yeah, it's wrong, but OP pretending this isn't a case of FAFO is just precious.
It's not wrong. Gerrymandering is allowed under the current system. Kudos to Virginia Democrats.
I fucking hate it.
Gerrymandering is one thing. Gerrymandering like we have seen from both sides over the last several years is nothing more than political bullshit. Virginia's attempt to keep up with the joneses is an abomination. It wasn't a great day for the Republic yesterday in my humble opinion.
I changed my opinion a while ago. All states should gerrymander and be done with it. The hodgepodge of some states doing and some not is the worst outcome and most unfair to voters.
To the extent that it is possible, we should not split counties. When it is necessary then you try to keep each township in the same congressional district. This should not be difficult.
To the extent that it is possible, we should not split counties. When it is necessary then you try to keep each township in the same congressional district. This should not be difficult.
Oh you are absolutely right about that. It really isn't.
It's just getting the guys that are currently in power to agree to it when they know that doing so will weaken their party's influence Not going to be alot of takers to that one.
Good news is the VRA is about to die. But of course Jackson, Sotomayor, and Kagan are playing politics by slow walking the decision so states don't have time to redistrict before the midterms.
https://twitter.com/i/status/2044965911929512179
I wish they didn't approve it, we are setting dangerous precedents. But to be slightly fair to Virginia RE your comments, recall Texas began this stupidity.
Yeah, it's wrong, but OP pretending this isn't a case of FAFO is just precious.
It's not wrong. Gerrymandering is allowed under the current system. Kudos to Virginia Democrats.
I fucking hate it.
Gerrymandering is one thing. Gerrymandering like we have seen from both sides over the last several years is nothing more than political bullshit. Virginia's attempt to keep up with the joneses is an abomination. It wasn't a great day for the Republic yesterday in my humble opinion.
I changed my opinion a while ago. All states should gerrymander and be done with it. The hodgepodge of some states doing and some not is the worst outcome and most unfair to voters.
It appears that SCOTUS is getting ready to gut section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Sean Spicer is reporting they've already reached a decision and the minority is slow walking their dissent.
https://twitter.com/theDChuddle/status/2044769536507826673
If that is true, Roberts needs to announce the decision ASAP so red states have time to redistrict before the midterms. We can read KBJ's and Sotomayor's vapid dissents at a later date.
@hhlurker Your LOL is misplaced. The elections were a referendum on the policies of the left. That's why @twenty's logic doesn't make sense. One can recognize that Trump has been a total disaster. And clearly he has been a total disaster. That doesn't make them believe the policies of the left are all of the sudden sensible. The left remain a total nonstarter for tens of millions of Americans.
The best thing that could happen for both parties is: 1) Pubs lose midterms so that JD and Ted and others can begin the process of distancing themselves from Tump without consequences and 2) Dems find new blood. People do not want the policies of the left. Get a new voice. Move back to sensible policies and the next two elections could be landslides for the Dem party
What logic doesn't make sense? I agree with everything you've said here.
Elections are decided by people on the margins. And usually just based upon which side gets their turnout and has a motivated base. Which is why we've seen the consistent pendulum swing for the last decade.
The GOP was only able to win the House by like 1 or 2 seats in what was supposed to be a GOP tailwind cycle. Running against a terrible top of the ticket candidate in Harris, after the absurd Biden term and the hot mess of the Democratic nomination process.
The Democratic party is still a hot mess, and no they don't have policies that are broadly popular. But instead of taking advantage of such a situation, the Trump party basically says 'hold my beer... We can try our best to look like the even bigger dumbasses'
It's pathetic, but was all very predictable
This is almost a decade old at this point, but it's still definitely worth the read/listen. Like most things, gerrymandering is way more complicated than a black & white issue. Even to the point about what counts as a gerrymander. If I recall correctly, there's also some thought provoking parts in there about racial gerrymandering.
For example, not cracking a "majority-minority" district has been a voting rights thing for some time now. But what if creating a majority-minority district requires some creative line drawing? Looks like a gerrymander, but is it? Or what about grouping different ethnicities of "Hispanic" together? Hard to lump in Cubans, Mexicans, Hondurans, & Guatemalans. Different cultures, ethnic stories, ethnic identities, but all Hispanic.
And does a majority-minority district even make sense from a voting power perspective? In somewhere like Mississippi where there's the ability to have a "black" district within a white state, is it to their benefit to be able to control a district? Versus a liberal urban center where the black population could have a significant say in the election of multiple candidates across multiple districts that are likely to get elected in a general election but instead get packed into their majority-minority district where they get one.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/the-gerrymandering-project/
What logic doesn't make sense?
Your exchange with @snarlcakes on Page 1 of this thread presuppose that people will switch votes to Dems. I don't believe that. I think what we'll see is lower turnout if the parties don't pivot by the next presidential election. Trump has been awful but again that doesn't make one think about becoming a Dem. It only makes them tune out or hope Aliens are real
Even with gerrymandering, states still attempted to pay attention to communities of interest and compactness when drawing districts. Virginia has none of that. Virginia drew a blatantly political “temporary” map that screams “fuck Trump!”
@snarlcakes Twenty and others are wrong to presume that because Trump's policies have been bad that people will vote for Dems. Our electorate is dumb but I would hope not that dumb. The left hasn't changed. Recognizing of course it's only a slim set that determines elections. Back to Trump, he's been terrible. Credit for the border, which is critically important, and changing the narrative and rhetoric on public safety, but the faults we witnessed with his chaotic handling of Covid are appearing again from the war to tariffs, etc. He ran on the representation that costs would come down. They haven't. Gas is nearly $5.00 per gallon. His handling of the war is erratic at best. His messaging gives little confidence to anyone. His tariffs, ignoring the fact that he blatantly lies about them or unimaginably doesn't understand how they operate, is a nightmare for American businesses. I don't mind that he fires people. I prefer that to Biden and others not doing so. But in some ways he operates with the polar of DEI - loyalty to himself, not merit. It's the same end: an incompetent administration.
The parties need a reboot.
Once again he hasn't been terrible. His handling of the border and moving the Overton window have been great. I am not a fan of the Iran War, but the handling of it has been good and the military has been fantastic. Tariffs were annoying, but they didn't derail the economy or cause inflation. The economy his 1st year was average to abode average. Not to mention Venezuela was major success. And gas is around 4 dollars and will quickly drop if/when the Iran War ends. As for affordability, people were better off after Trump's 1st year than the prior year.
My issue is the emotional response that Trump causes people to have and the hyperbole that follows. If you would have said he's been meh or not that good, I would have scrolled on by. However, you have to go to an extreme, which isn't true or a reasonable take.
What logic doesn't make sense?
Your exchange with @snarlcakes on Page 1 of this thread presuppose that people will switch votes to Dems. I don't believe that. I think what we'll see is lower turnout if the parties don't pivot by the next presidential election. Trump has been awful but again that doesn't make one think about becoming a Dem. It only makes them tune out or hope Aliens are real
I never said people are going to switch to voting Dem (though there is plenty of data to indicate that there is some subset of voters that do switch between parties).
Young voters are particularly shifty and have very little consistent alignment with one party from cycle to cycle (or turning out to vote, at all).
Older voters are typically very cemented into their party line viewpoints and are usually very reliable turnout.... Even moreso with older, conservative voters, who are by far the most reliable voting bloc.
Something like 80% of Republican voters support the Iran war. 85+% of Republicans over age 50. For all this talk about the new right, it's actually the same exact voter that was already and always there... Voting for GWB, Romney and Trump. Those people aren't going anywhere, doesn't matter who the hell is at the top of the ticket. But that's also only about 30% of the country (Republicans).
@hhlurker Your LOL is misplaced. The elections were a referendum on the policies of the left. That's why @twenty's logic doesn't make sense. One can recognize that Trump has been a total disaster. And clearly he has been a total disaster. That doesn't make them believe the policies of the left are all of the sudden sensible. The left remain a total nonstarter for tens of millions of Americans.
The best thing that could happen for both parties is: 1) Pubs lose midterms so that JD and Ted and others can begin the process of distancing themselves from Tump without consequences and 2) Dems find new blood. People do not want the policies of the left. Get a new voice. Move back to sensible policies and the next two elections could be landslides for the Dem party
What logic doesn't make sense? I agree with everything you've said here.
Elections are decided by people on the margins. And usually just based upon which side gets their turnout and has a motivated base. Which is why we've seen the consistent pendulum swing for the last decade.
The GOP was only able to win the House by like 1 or 2 seats in what was supposed to be a GOP tailwind cycle. Running against a terrible top of the ticket candidate in Harris, after the absurd Biden term and the hot mess of the Democratic nomination process.
The Democratic party is still a hot mess, and no they don't have policies that are broadly popular. But instead of taking advantage of such a situation, the Trump party basically says 'hold my beer... We can try our best to look like the even bigger dumbasses'
It's pathetic, but was all very predictable
So, fighting the Iran War is being a bigger dumbass, correct? Because that's what will hurt Trump the most in November if he loses Congress.