Major slippage seen in Universities and South Dallas. Crockett's revenge continues.QuoteLatinx Adjacent Doctor PhDDallas County turnout fell 18% Day over Day yesterday.Talarico is not getting anywhere close to what he needs to make this a race. But by all means go bet on him based on what a betting market says. He will lose by 3-6 points and you can bank it.
Paxton wins by 2 or 3
@arioznahoosier4554 Harris County had 104,000. The previous record for a midterm was 63,000. That 40,000 will make up for Dallas. It is going to be close. Even Paxton admits to there being an "enthusiasm gap."
Talarico has a chance. Texas only elects Republicans, so I don't think it smart to predict a Democratic win. But it will be close. Musk's millions certainly help Paxton. Advertising only makes a few percent difference, but in a virtual tie that is enough.
@arthur-dent I see people at the library next to the place I get sushi. Packed. I don’t think a single person under the age of 75
Dems perform the best the first few days of early voting so this will only get more red. Sure not looking like some massive blue wave so many predicted - but betting markets say!!!!
Day 3 Florida In Person Early Vote update
Republican: 12,789 (43.2%)
Democrat: 10,680 (36.1%)
Other: 6,136 (20.7%)
Why are you using Florida as some kind of bellwether? It's solidly red. Donalds has multiples more cash than Jolly. Donalds will win and Moody will roll.
Here's what MAGA pollster Rich Baris said to Piers Morgan recently.
"I mean, look, just so everybody understands this, even if Donald Trump did not spend a decade plus promising never to start another new war in the Middle East, unpopular war leads to defeat for the incumbent party 100% of the time. So when I say fundamentals matter, they matter. If the polls are this close, don't bet against them.
"It's going to be a bloodbath. It's going to be a bloodbath, Piers. The House is gone. The Senate, it's a question of how many seats at this point. Is there a scenario where Republicans could hold on with Vance's vote? Sure. I heard somebody before bring up Minnesota. We even had, I'll tell you, only two points behind in Minnesota. The problem, again, was the undecided vote."
@arioznahoosier4554 Harris County had 104,000. The previous record for a midterm was 63,000. That 40,000 will make up for Dallas. It is going to be close. Even Paxton admits to there being an "enthusiasm gap."
Talarico has a chance. Texas only elects Republicans, so I don't think it smart to predict a Democratic win. But it will be close. Musk's millions certainly help Paxton. Advertising only makes a few percent difference, but in a virtual tie that is enough.
There is also an assumption here that all the early votes from Republicans are for Republican candidates. It's not a huge percentage, but there are some Republicans out there who are kinda pissed at how things are going. It may only be 1 in 100, but a few of them very well might be voting Democrat. I've seen plenty of testimonials in the news media of Trump supporters who are going to vote Democrat this cycle. Even if you think that number is being exaggerated by the liberal media, the fact that they can find some that say it to the camera (and you will be hard pressed to find any Democrats going on Fox saying "I've voted democrat my whole life but I'm voting Republican this election"), has to be a bit of a bad sign for Paxton.
@carramrod don't be a fucking idiot. You might hate her, but she's not stupid. No one with any sense, even her fiercest critics, accuse her of being stupid. Such a weak, stupid attack only makes you look bad.
Nah. She’s a standard deviation or two below the rest of her peers in IQ.
I’m not sure what “fiercest critics” you’re referring to but her peers on the high court go out their way to take swipes at her in their opinions in a way that is unprecedented.
There is also an assumption here that all the early votes from Republicans are for Republican candidates. It's not a huge percentage, but there are some Republicans out there who are kinda pissed at how things are going. It may only be 1 in 100, but a few of them very well might be voting Democrat. I've seen plenty of testimonials in the news media of Trump supporters who are going to vote Democrat this cycle. Even if you think that number is being exaggerated by the liberal media, the fact that they can find some that say it to the camera (and you will be hard pressed to find any Democrats going on Fox saying "I've voted democrat my whole life but I'm voting Republican this election"), has to be a bit of a bad sign for Paxton.
Didn't one of the Bush daughters just publicly donate to Talarico? It may mean nothing, but if just two percent of Republicans switch to D that is a big change. I am certain no where close to 2% of Ds are switching.
But I once heard a meteorologist say that he thought we would set a record high the next day but they were taught in meteorology to not predict breaking records. He said think of it, you would be predicting something that has never happened. That is my concern picking Talarico. But I feel safe it will be in the margin of error and may well be decided after a bitter court struggle.
There is also an assumption here that all the early votes from Republicans are for Republican candidates. It's not a huge percentage, but there are some Republicans out there who are kinda pissed at how things are going. It may only be 1 in 100, but a few of them very well might be voting Democrat. I've seen plenty of testimonials in the news media of Trump supporters who are going to vote Democrat this cycle. Even if you think that number is being exaggerated by the liberal media, the fact that they can find some that say it to the camera (and you will be hard pressed to find any Democrats going on Fox saying "I've voted democrat my whole life but I'm voting Republican this election"), has to be a bit of a bad sign for Paxton.
Didn't one of the Bush daughters just publicly donate to Talarico? It may mean nothing, but if just two percent of Republicans switch to D that is a big change. I am certain no where close to 2% of Ds are switching.
But I once heard a meteorologist say that he thought we would set a record high the next day but they were taught in meteorology to not predict breaking records. He said think of it, you would be predicting something that has never happened. That is my concern picking Talarico. But I feel safe it will be in the margin of error and may well be decided after a bitter court struggle.
No surprise. The Bush family is one of the most corrupt and disgusting families in our country's history.
This is sour grapes as Paxton nuked Jorge 2022.
No surprise. The Bush family is one of the most corrupt and disgusting families in our country's history.
This is sour grapes as Paxton nuked Jorge 2022.
You will never lose the Dumbest Poster in WC History title.
Dems perform the best the first few days of early voting so this will only get more red. Sure not looking like some massive blue wave so many predicted - but betting markets say!!!!
Day 3 Florida In Person Early Vote update
Republican: 12,789 (43.2%)
Democrat: 10,680 (36.1%)
Other: 6,136 (20.7%)
Why are you using Florida as some kind of bellwether? It's solidly red. Donalds has multiples more cash than Jolly. Donalds will win and Moody will roll.
Here's what MAGA pollster Rich Baris said to Piers Morgan recently.
"I mean, look, just so everybody understands this, even if Donald Trump did not spend a decade plus promising never to start another new war in the Middle East, unpopular war leads to defeat for the incumbent party 100% of the time. So when I say fundamentals matter, they matter. If the polls are this close, don't bet against them.
"It's going to be a bloodbath. It's going to be a bloodbath, Piers. The House is gone. The Senate, it's a question of how many seats at this point. Is there a scenario where Republicans could hold on with Vance's vote? Sure. I heard somebody before bring up Minnesota. We even had, I'll tell you, only two points behind in Minnesota. The problem, again, was the undecided vote."
People see all these garbage polls and before you know it…they think it’s gospel.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2112994041373581819
Donalds is not outperforming Moody…but some will believe that poll
@arthur-dent I assume she did. The rumor was she donated to his Talerico's PAC. Also, Bushes brother came out and said he voted for him as well. One of Trump's greatest attributes is exposing dummies and shit libs like George. It explains why George was such a terrible President. One of Trump's greatest attributes is exposing dlike Bush. You guys get to claim him now😉
@arthur-dent I assume she did. The rumor was she donated to his Talerico's PAC. Also, Bushes brother came out and said he voted for him as well. One of Trump's greatest attributes is exposing dummies and shit libs like George. It explains why George was such a terrible President. One of Trump's greatest attributes is exposing dlike Bush. You guys get to claim him now😉
Correct i never liked bush he was uniparty all the way and its obvious now. They are so principled they vote for far left wing democrats lol. But I am excited for election night i fully expect repubs to keep the senate. Dems might take the house but that is normal in a midterm I just want to see how far off these polls and betting markets are i think it will be by alot.
Dems perform the best the first few days of early voting so this will only get more red. Sure not looking like some massive blue wave so many predicted - but betting markets say!!!!
Day 3 Florida In Person Early Vote update
Republican: 12,789 (43.2%)
Democrat: 10,680 (36.1%)
Other: 6,136 (20.7%)
Why are you using Florida as some kind of bellwether? It's solidly red. Donalds has multiples more cash than Jolly. Donalds will win and Moody will roll.
Here's what MAGA pollster Rich Baris said to Piers Morgan recently.
"I mean, look, just so everybody understands this, even if Donald Trump did not spend a decade plus promising never to start another new war in the Middle East, unpopular war leads to defeat for the incumbent party 100% of the time. So when I say fundamentals matter, they matter. If the polls are this close, don't bet against them.
"It's going to be a bloodbath. It's going to be a bloodbath, Piers. The House is gone. The Senate, it's a question of how many seats at this point. Is there a scenario where Republicans could hold on with Vance's vote? Sure. I heard somebody before bring up Minnesota. We even had, I'll tell you, only two points behind in Minnesota. The problem, again, was the undecided vote."
People see all these garbage polls and before you know it…they think it’s gospel.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2112994041373581819
Donalds is not outperforming Moody…but some will believe that poll
its not even going to be close and early voting already proves it but get back to me on election night.
Current Polymarket numbers (chances of winning):
- Iowa: Hinson (R) 56%
- Kansas: Marshall (R) 62%
- Maine: Jackson (D) 66%
- Texas: Talarico (D) 68%
- Michigan: El-Sayed (D) 70%
- Ohio: Brown (D) 72%
- Alaska: Peltola (D) 75%
- Minnesota: Flanagan (D) 87%
- Georgia: Ossoff (D) 96%
- North Carolina: Cooper (D) 97%
Correct i never liked bush he was uniparty all the way and its obvious now. They are so principled they vote for far left wing democrats lol. But I am excited for election night i fully expect repubs to keep the senate. Dems might take the house but that is normal in a midterm I just want to see how far off these polls and betting markets are i think it will be by alot.
You mean "a lot," "alot" is not a word.