I think we had another president recently who governed on Hope…or something like that
A couple of things.
Iran is not a country, it is a religion. A fanatical one at that. Until that changes, no negotiated conclusion is possible.
Second, building an atom bomb is about intentions, not about facilities and equipment. We can bomb and destroy all the stuff necessary to assemble and deliver a bomb, but until these fanatics decide they don’t want one, our mission won’t be finished.
Disagree, our mission is likely finished. The political and monetary costs of setting Iran's nuclear weapons program back for an uncertain amount of time is just too high, even for this admin. The Middle East has more domino effect than any place on the planet; downstream consequences there are always extra brutal. We also see that geography still trumps tech in 2026 and Iran has all the cards. We're reminded daily why every other admin of either party, hawkish or doveish, decided to build coalitions and engage diplomatically rather than do something stupid like this.
The cost are too high? We're paying a buck more for gas. The experts and doomers said the global economy would be imploding, checks notes, three months ago. I'll take the other side of the mission is over prediction.
A couple of things.
Iran is not a country, it is a religion. A fanatical one at that. Until that changes, no negotiated conclusion is possible.
Second, building an atom bomb is about intentions, not about facilities and equipment. We can bomb and destroy all the stuff necessary to assemble and deliver a bomb, but until these fanatics decide they don’t want one, our mission won’t be finished.
Disagree, our mission is likely finished. The political and monetary costs of setting Iran's nuclear weapons program back for an uncertain amount of time is just too high, even for this admin. The Middle East has more domino effect than any place on the planet; downstream consequences there are always extra brutal. We also see that geography still trumps tech in 2026 and Iran has all the cards. We're reminded daily why every other admin of either party, hawkish or doveish, decided to build coalitions and engage diplomatically rather than do something stupid like this.
How long before “we” threaten to use a nuke to destroy the “mountain” where their materials are hidden?
Hope that does't happen. The US or any country normalizing nuclear threats would be no bueno.
A couple of things.
Iran is not a country, it is a religion. A fanatical one at that. Until that changes, no negotiated conclusion is possible.
Second, building an atom bomb is about intentions, not about facilities and equipment. We can bomb and destroy all the stuff necessary to assemble and deliver a bomb, but until these fanatics decide they don’t want one, our mission won’t be finished.
Disagree, our mission is likely finished. The political and monetary costs of setting Iran's nuclear weapons program back for an uncertain amount of time is just too high, even for this admin. The Middle East has more domino effect than any place on the planet; downstream consequences there are always extra brutal. We also see that geography still trumps tech in 2026 and Iran has all the cards. We're reminded daily why every other admin of either party, hawkish or doveish, decided to build coalitions and engage diplomatically rather than do something stupid like this.
The cost are too high? We're paying a buck more for gas. The experts and doomers said the global economy would be imploding, checks notes, three months ago. I'll take the other side of the mission is over prediction.
So a buck more a gallon and all the other prices that raises isn't an issue? If not, when did you turn 18 and are you looking forward to voting for the first time? lol
But seriously, markets are still thinking this can't go on forever. Would be a very different picture if this looked like another long war.
Two facts remain that can't be wished away:
1. We can't ever truly destroy their nuke program without having guys there or maybe nuking it
2. They can shut down the strait at anytime with little cost and effort
A couple of things.
Iran is not a country, it is a religion. A fanatical one at that. Until that changes, no negotiated conclusion is possible.
Second, building an atom bomb is about intentions, not about facilities and equipment. We can bomb and destroy all the stuff necessary to assemble and deliver a bomb, but until these fanatics decide they don’t want one, our mission won’t be finished.
Disagree, our mission is likely finished. The political and monetary costs of setting Iran's nuclear weapons program back for an uncertain amount of time is just too high, even for this admin. The Middle East has more domino effect than any place on the planet; downstream consequences there are always extra brutal. We also see that geography still trumps tech in 2026 and Iran has all the cards. We're reminded daily why every other admin of either party, hawkish or doveish, decided to build coalitions and engage diplomatically rather than do something stupid like this.
The cost are too high? We're paying a buck more for gas. The experts and doomers said the global economy would be imploding, checks notes, three months ago. I'll take the other side of the mission is over prediction.
So a buck more a gallon and all the other prices that raises isn't an issue? If not, when did you turn 18 and are you looking forward to voting for the first time? lol
But seriously, markets are still thinking this can't go on forever. Would be a very different picture if this looked like another long war.
Two facts remain that can't be wished away:
1. We can't ever truly destroy their nuke program without having guys there or maybe nuking it
2. They can shut down the strait at anytime with little cost and effort
When did I say it wasn't an issue? You said the war is likely finished because the costs are too high. I am saying paying a buck more for gas isn't too high of a cost for the war to continue.
I disagree on markets. They're responding to reality. The scary predictions of 150,200,300 dollar barrels haven't happened.
Also, the cost for Iran to shutdown the strait is runway inflation and a collapsing economy (by the way blowing up ones own economy isn't a sign of strength). Not to mention other countries developing alternative routes to get oil to the markets and in turn less dependency on the straight.
By the way I always love it when you guys talk out both sides of your mouth. American's paying a buck more for gas, 3% inflation, and a growing economy is too much of a cost. However, Iran dealing with triple digit inflation and a contracting economy is no big deal and equals winning 🙄
We're reminded daily why every other admin of either party, hawkish or doveish, decided to build coalitions and engage diplomatically rather than do something stupid like this.
The U S began developing the heavy precision bunker buster bomb 20 years ago and it was built to attack Iran nuclear sites.
We're reminded daily why every other admin of either party, hawkish or doveish, decided to build coalitions and engage diplomatically rather than do something stupid like this.
The U S began developing the heavy precision bunker buster bomb 20 years ago and it was built to attack Iran nuclear sites.
Interestingly, Israel, which neither confirms or denies having nukes, hides it nukes in deep underground silos.
We're reminded daily why every other admin of either party, hawkish or doveish, decided to build coalitions and engage diplomatically rather than do something stupid like this.
The U S began developing the heavy precision bunker buster bomb 20 years ago and it was built to attack Iran nuclear sites.
We dropped those bombs on their nuke program last summer but here we are...
A couple of things.
Iran is not a country, it is a religion. A fanatical one at that. Until that changes, no negotiated conclusion is possible.
Second, building an atom bomb is about intentions, not about facilities and equipment. We can bomb and destroy all the stuff necessary to assemble and deliver a bomb, but until these fanatics decide they don’t want one, our mission won’t be finished.
Disagree, our mission is likely finished. The political and monetary costs of setting Iran's nuclear weapons program back for an uncertain amount of time is just too high, even for this admin. The Middle East has more domino effect than any place on the planet; downstream consequences there are always extra brutal. We also see that geography still trumps tech in 2026 and Iran has all the cards. We're reminded daily why every other admin of either party, hawkish or doveish, decided to build coalitions and engage diplomatically rather than do something stupid like this.
The cost are too high? We're paying a buck more for gas. The experts and doomers said the global economy would be imploding, checks notes, three months ago. I'll take the other side of the mission is over prediction.
So a buck more a gallon and all the other prices that raises isn't an issue? If not, when did you turn 18 and are you looking forward to voting for the first time? lol
But seriously, markets are still thinking this can't go on forever. Would be a very different picture if this looked like another long war.
Two facts remain that can't be wished away:
1. We can't ever truly destroy their nuke program without having guys there or maybe nuking it
2. They can shut down the strait at anytime with little cost and effort
When did I say it wasn't an issue? You said the war is likely finished because the costs are too high. I am saying paying a buck more for gas isn't too high of a cost for the war to continue.
I disagree on markets. They're responding to reality. The scary predictions of 150,200,300 dollar barrels haven't happened.
Also, the cost for Iran to shutdown the strait is runway inflation and a collapsing economy (by the way blowing up ones own economy isn't a sign of strength). Not to mention other countries developing alternative routes to get oil to the markets and in turn less dependency on the straight.
By the way I always love it when you guys talk out both sides of your mouth. American's paying a buck more for gas, 3% inflation, and a growing economy is too much of a cost. However, Iran dealing with triple digit inflation and a contracting economy is no big deal and equals winning 🙄
I hope we're not gauging success based on comparisons with Iran's economy. They don't govern their people with a low inflation/ high employment mandate. They also aren't leaders of a world-wide economic system.
Eh -- we're paying a helluva cost if you consider we didn't have to be doing this in the first place and that we won't be eliminating Iran's ability to build a bomb or shut down the strait.
This is becoming a contest of endurance. If the contest is between the IRGC and Trump, who's your money on?
"The bigger advantage [Iran] has is not that they can hurt America or Israel. Their big advantage is that they can hurt the regional states and the global economy."
"Threats to the Red Sea and Saudi energy infrastructure suggest a broader effort to raise the cost of protecting global commerce while testing Washington's tolerance for disruption.
"'The Iranians...believe that by widening the war and increasing the pressure, [Trump] will eventually give in,'" the Gulf source said. 'Trump thinks he can hit the Iranians hard and bring them to the negotiating table, but they won't bend.' That calculation underpins Tehran's negotiating strategy."
I think it's better than 50-50 that Iran ends up with a role in the governance of the strait, where they previously had none.
How Iran is widening its pressure campaign to force US concessions | Reuters
Two facts remain that can't be wished away:
...
2. They can shut down the strait at anytime with little cost and effort
As a reminder, it should be noted that Iran cannot "shut down the strait whenever they want". The only reason that they can successfully do it now is because they have realized that Donald Trump (and/or other nations) are trying everything possible to avoid invading Iran (boots on the ground). We could absolutely force them into submission, but that would take 1000's of troops and a likely 5-year campaign.
So far, they have been calling Trump's bluff and winning, but Trump will eventually have a breaking point (whether it is personally or whether the economic realities force his hand) and then things get worse for a little bit before they get better.
This is becoming a contest of endurance. If the contest is between the IRGC and Trump, who's your money on?
...
"'The Iranians...believe that by widening the war and increasing the pressure, [Trump] will eventually give in,'" the Gulf source said. 'Trump thinks he can hit the Iranians hard and bring them to the negotiating table, but they won't bend.' That calculation underpins Tehran's negotiating strategy."
I think the Iranians know full well that this "operation" is incredibly unpopular with Americans and Trump / Republicans are likely going to be destroyed in the mid-terms because of it. It is a contest of endurance, but more to see if they can wait through November / January and then Congress will end this for them.
