This is becoming a contest of endurance. If the contest is between the IRGC and Trump, who's your money on?
...
"'The Iranians...believe that by widening the war and increasing the pressure, [Trump] will eventually give in,'" the Gulf source said. 'Trump thinks he can hit the Iranians hard and bring them to the negotiating table, but they won't bend.' That calculation underpins Tehran's negotiating strategy."
I think the Iranians know full well that this "operation" is incredibly unpopular with Americans and Trump / Republicans are likely going to be destroyed in the mid-terms because of it. It is a contest of endurance, but more to see if they can wait through November / January and then Congress will end this for them.
Reminds me a lot of our other recent wars. If you don't go all in and are too concerned with international law and perception, you aren't going to win it quickly.
This is becoming a contest of endurance. If the contest is between the IRGC and Trump, who's your money on?
...
"'The Iranians...believe that by widening the war and increasing the pressure, [Trump] will eventually give in,'" the Gulf source said. 'Trump thinks he can hit the Iranians hard and bring them to the negotiating table, but they won't bend.' That calculation underpins Tehran's negotiating strategy."
I think the Iranians know full well that this "operation" is incredibly unpopular with Americans and Trump / Republicans are likely going to be destroyed in the mid-terms because of it. It is a contest of endurance, but more to see if they can wait through November / January and then Congress will end this for them.
Reminds me a lot of our other recent wars. If you don't go all in and are too concerned with international law and perception, you aren't going to win it quickly.
Compliance (or not) with international law isn't relevant to this massive blunder unless you believe Trump should have just bombed the hell out of them and leveled the country, without regard to enormous loss of life and civilian casualties.
The United States is a signatory to post-WW2 international conventions. We abide by international law, the Law of Armed Conflict and Standing Rules of Engagement which recognize, among other things, military necessity and proportionality. If and when we ever abandon these principles, guidelines and mandates, we - - and the world - - will be fucked.
Trump was emboldened by the great success and ease of the Venezuela/Maduro operation. He believed similar success could be achieved in Iran in a matter of weeks. That belief was folly, reflecting a lack of understanding and/or disregard of history and the resolve of this fanatical group. The apparent failure to anticipate the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of a plan to forestall that or react forcefully to it was mind-boggling. Further, the war objectives were fluid, sometimes seemingly changing by the day and, accordingly, there was a shifting and incoherent strategy. Also, Trump's bizarre and inconsistent messaging contributed to the unpopularity of the conflict.
It's been a debacle, with no endgame or off-ramp in sight.
You notice that there is an "imminent deal" always popping up every Sunday evening. In a strange coincidence, these announcements always occur about an hour before the oil markets open even though it's been a week of Iran or the Houthis attacking some tankers in the Persian gulf / Red Sea.
It's almost like someone is trying to manipulate the oil markets to keep them low.
This is becoming a contest of endurance. If the contest is between the IRGC and Trump, who's your money on?
...
"'The Iranians...believe that by widening the war and increasing the pressure, [Trump] will eventually give in,'" the Gulf source said. 'Trump thinks he can hit the Iranians hard and bring them to the negotiating table, but they won't bend.' That calculation underpins Tehran's negotiating strategy."
I think the Iranians know full well that this "operation" is incredibly unpopular with Americans and Trump / Republicans are likely going to be destroyed in the mid-terms because of it. It is a contest of endurance, but more to see if they can wait through November / January and then Congress will end this for them.
Reminds me a lot of our other recent wars. If you don't go all in and are too concerned with international law and perception, you aren't going to win it quickly.
Compliance (or not) with international law isn't relevant to this massive blunder unless you believe Trump should have just bombed the hell out of them and leveled the country, without regard to enormous loss of life and civilian casualties.
The United States is a signatory to post-WW2 international conventions. We abide by international law, the Law of Armed Conflict and Standing Rules of Engagement which recognize, among other things, military necessity and proportionality. If and when we ever abandon these principles, guidelines and mandates, we - - and the world - - will be fucked.
Trump was emboldened by the great success and ease of the Venezuela/Maduro operation. He believed similar success could be achieved in Iran in a matter of weeks. That belief was folly, reflecting a lack of understanding and/or disregard of history and the resolve of this fanatical group. The apparent failure to anticipate the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of a plan to forestall that or react forcefully to it was mind-boggling. Further, the war objectives were fluid, sometimes seemingly changing by the day and, accordingly, there was a shifting and incoherent strategy. Also, Trump's bizarre and inconsistent messaging contributed to the unpopularity of the conflict.
It's been a debacle, with no endgame or off-ramp in sight.
Then there are two options:
1) Get drawn into prolonged conflicts against those that do not abide by the same rules of warfare and spend much more time, effort, lives, and cost
2) Fight those with whom you are in conflict by the same standards as they use
If you aren't willing to do the latter, then you cannot criticize the detrimental elements of the former. Criticism for engaging in the conflict to begin with is certainly warranted still (e.g., Iran, Iraq War, etc.) as that is disconnected from the point above.
This is becoming a contest of endurance. If the contest is between the IRGC and Trump, who's your money on?
...
"'The Iranians...believe that by widening the war and increasing the pressure, [Trump] will eventually give in,'" the Gulf source said. 'Trump thinks he can hit the Iranians hard and bring them to the negotiating table, but they won't bend.' That calculation underpins Tehran's negotiating strategy."
I think the Iranians know full well that this "operation" is incredibly unpopular with Americans and Trump / Republicans are likely going to be destroyed in the mid-terms because of it. It is a contest of endurance, but more to see if they can wait through November / January and then Congress will end this for them.
Reminds me a lot of our other recent wars. If you don't go all in and are too concerned with international law and perception, you aren't going to win it quickly.
Compliance (or not) with international law isn't relevant to this massive blunder unless you believe Trump should have just bombed the hell out of them and leveled the country, without regard to enormous loss of life and civilian casualties.
The United States is a signatory to post-WW2 international conventions. We abide by international law, the Law of Armed Conflict and Standing Rules of Engagement which recognize, among other things, military necessity and proportionality. If and when we ever abandon these principles, guidelines and mandates, we - - and the world - - will be fucked.
Trump was emboldened by the great success and ease of the Venezuela/Maduro operation. He believed similar success could be achieved in Iran in a matter of weeks. That belief was folly, reflecting a lack of understanding and/or disregard of history and the resolve of this fanatical group. The apparent failure to anticipate the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of a plan to forestall that or react forcefully to it was mind-boggling. Further, the war objectives were fluid, sometimes seemingly changing by the day and, accordingly, there was a shifting and incoherent strategy. Also, Trump's bizarre and inconsistent messaging contributed to the unpopularity of the conflict.
It's been a debacle, with no endgame or off-ramp in sight.
Then there are two options:
1) Get drawn into prolonged conflicts against those that do not abide by the same rules of warfare and spend much more time, effort, lives, and cost
2) Fight those with whom you are in conflict by the same standards as they use
If you aren't willing to do the latter, then you cannot criticize the detrimental elements of the former. Criticism for engaging in the conflict to begin with is certainly warranted still (e.g., Iran, Iraq War, etc.) as that is disconnected from the point above.
I see what you're saying but can a country enjoy the benefits of being a Liberal Democracy while not acting like one? I'd say not for long.
There was a world before humans decided to create some basic rules around warfare and i'm not sure it's a place we want to revisit.
Iran and Oman (at this point the Trump administration appears to be on the outside looking in) are working on a deal that would establish transit routes in the Strait of Hormuz for inbound and outbound vessels. The Iranian news agency published a draft plan that would ban US and Israeli ships from the Strait.
The next few days should be interesting.
Oil jumps after Iran publishes restrictive plan for Strait of Hormuz
Posted in other thread but should be here for those who are interested. Why the Iran War Remains Strategically Adrift – The Cipher Brief
Iran issues warning to Gulf states: US must desist or you’ll be hit hard
Crucial US missile stockpiles 'extremely low,' official says - ABC News
The President says it so it must be true. Trump denies US low on key munitions in war with Iran after reports of shortages | Donald Trump | The Guardian
Houthis Stage Large-Scale Attack On Saudi-Aligned Forces In Yemen
General Caine is reportedly "looking for an off-ramp."
Wait 'til Trump picks up on this story. Meltdown time.
@dbmhoosier of course. The MOU would be a big win for them.
I just read where their agreement with Oman will open the Strait when we stop attacking, withdraw our military, and pay reparations. That might even tax Trump's ability to declare victory.