Interesting. I really wish the President could end this today, but he can't.
Trump shifts his tone on Jimmy Carter while grappling with Iran, inflation and his own legacy
I don't think you're accurately tallying up all the costs and consequences, known and potentially unknown, from the Iraq invasion, so I guess I'd say you're the one being short sighted. Are you saying you'd do that again if you had the chance? I'm not buying that.@bradstevens Iraq is a very messy and costly success story. Something that is better now by far than 20 years ago. And will be even better 20 years from now. Trump will leave no such legacy. Don't be so short sighted.
Plus, how do you know Iran won't be better off 20 years from now and then 20 years after that with the killing of Khameni and others at the top, or some other unintended consequence?
Iraq is the only sense and smell of a legitimate democratic government in the entire middle east. It has a lot of ugly warts still, and likely will for decades to come. But most nascent republics always have a lot of issues. And yes I do think it was worthwhile, And will continue to pay dividends for decades to come. Certainly was a much better success than Vietnam or Afghanistan. And now Assad is also gone and we have what, at least for now, looks like a cooperative power in Damascus. These are all good things. Now we just have the shitheads in Tehran and their proxies left to flush out.
Is this credible, that the US effectively blinded the Iranian mosquito swarm fleets?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mlKDUw8oXc0&ra=m
To be honest, that is something I can neither confirm nor deny.Is this credible, that the US effectively blinded the Iranian mosquito swarm fleets?
His time in the Puzzle Palace ended about a year ago. He’s doing his O6 command tour now. I’d bet on him making Flag but Hegseth is SecDef and he appears to dislike blacks making Flag.@aloha-hoosier I thought Bing was in the 5 sided building?
His time in the Puzzle Palace ended about a year ago. He’s doing his O6 command tour now. I’d bet on him making Flag but Hegseth is SecDef and he appears to dislike blacks making Flag.@aloha-hoosier I thought Bing was in the 5 sided building?
Can he be hold out for a couple years, or does being passed over queer it for him down the line too?
He has a couple years before he’s eligible. Hegseth should already be gone, but I don’t think he’ll last two more years. Most of the brass thinks he’s a joke.His time in the Puzzle Palace ended about a year ago. He’s doing his O6 command tour now. I’d bet on him making Flag but Hegseth is SecDef and he appears to dislike blacks making Flag.@aloha-hoosier I thought Bing was in the 5 sided building?
Can he be hold out for a couple years, or does being passed over queer it for him down the line too?
@bradstevens you had mentioned the Iraq war being worse, and it was bad. But the TL;DR is that if we lose the Iran War, Iran will become a much bigger power than they are now. Other nations in the area may see a need to align with Iran if the US cannot defeat Iran. The war is pushing more countries to solar. Now that would be good, except the US doesn't compete in solar energy. We are pushing countries into China's orbit by making oil and gas more expensive and less dependenable. You can see the article at https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2026/Items/Jul20-5.html. It links to a WaPo article at https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/07/17/how-iran-war-handed-china-strategic-windfall/. The WaPo article specifically mentions China's Middle East goal is to decouple nations from the US. They don't want military adventures in that area by their forces, but they want the region far less aligned with Washington. You don't think Iran winning the war, and winning is surviving with no major concessions and increased control over Hormuz, will make nations rethink their American dependence?
@bradstevens you had mentioned the Iraq war being worse, and it was bad. But the TL;DR is that if we lose the Iran War, Iran will become a much bigger power than they are now. Other nations in the area may see a need to align with Iran if the US cannot defeat Iran. The war is pushing more countries to solar. Now that would be good, except the US doesn't compete in solar energy. We are pushing countries into China's orbit by making oil and gas more expensive and less dependenable. You can see the article at https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2026/Items/Jul20-5.html. It links to a WaPo article at https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/07/17/how-iran-war-handed-china-strategic-windfall/. The WaPo article specifically mentions China's Middle East goal is to decouple nations from the US. They don't want military adventures in that area by their forces, but they want the region far less aligned with Washington. You don't think Iran winning the war, and winning is surviving with no major concessions and increased control over Hormuz, will make nations rethink their American dependence?
So, in precipitating the war, Trump may have inadvertently enhanced Iran's long-term influence and power, and furthered China's ME goals.
Another Trumpian fuck-up.
@bradstevens you had mentioned the Iraq war being worse, and it was bad. But the TL;DR is that if we lose the Iran War, Iran will become a much bigger power than they are now. Other nations in the area may see a need to align with Iran if the US cannot defeat Iran. The war is pushing more countries to solar. Now that would be good, except the US doesn't compete in solar energy. We are pushing countries into China's orbit by making oil and gas more expensive and less dependenable. You can see the article at https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2026/Items/Jul20-5.html. It links to a WaPo article at https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/07/17/how-iran-war-handed-china-strategic-windfall/. The WaPo article specifically mentions China's Middle East goal is to decouple nations from the US. They don't want military adventures in that area by their forces, but they want the region far less aligned with Washington. You don't think Iran winning the war, and winning is surviving with no major concessions and increased control over Hormuz, will make nations rethink their American dependence?
Define what the US “losing” the war looks like & what Iran “winning” the war looks like…
@oneeyedundertaker I said for Iran no major concessions and gains any control of Hormuz, they win. If they gain any control, it will be a precedent that will be expanded.
US victory is harder because not a human alive can say what our goals were. Don't mention nukes; we blew the hell out of the program with Midnight Hammer.
But we won't know for years. Again, China's goal is to decouple Middle Eastern states from the US. We won't know if this war creates that for a few years. But China can offer to sell them weaponry. China has never offered to take over Hormuz for a fee. China's relationship with Iran means China can offer to keep them out of Iranian crosshairs.
So the US needs no Iranian control over Hormuz, a significantly better deal than JCPOA, and no significant change to our alliances.
This is a quagmire of his own doing.
"Only time will tell whether [Trump] has the patience to tolerate the global economic shocks that may ensue before his reimposed blockade on ships and ports decisively increases the heat on Iran. After all, he told Americans last month that he inked an initial agreement to end the war because he didn’t want to cause another Great Depression. That was seen as a bid to mitigate political damage to the GOP ahead of November’s midterm elections.
"Such questions are especially pertinent now not just because the conflict is ramping up nearly five months after Trump declared it won in a couple of days, but because this new phase seems to be an attempt to fix the failings of the initial war. US forces are now effectively fighting to deprive Iran of its capacity to use the strait to hold the global economy hostage.
"The strait was open to free navigation before the war. If Trump can’t restore that status quo, he will be remembered for a strategic disaster. But his options for doing so are limited, especially since aspects of the newly constituted Iranian regime seem actively bullish about more war."
New US escalation in Iran makes Trump’s endgame vacuum more urgent | CNN Politics