@unclemark did the enrichment come before trump breached or after?
My understanding is that the Iranians were in compliance up until Trump trashed the agreement.
The Abraham accords were Trump’s singular opportunity to earn his dearly coveted Nobel peace prize. Screwed that up when he show his true colors in Iran.
The Abraham Accords weren't all that. It's not like Bahrain and the UAE posed a threat to Israel. But Nobel Peace Prizes have been awarded for less -- and even for nothing, as in the case of Obama's.
So incredibly disjointed. Also, the President wishes us a “happy Memorial Day.” He doesn’t understand what Memorial Day is all about.
So incredibly disjointed. Also, the President wishes us a “happy Memorial Day.” He doesn’t understand what Memorial Day is all about.
Every time he speaks or tweets, it's embarrassing.
‘Twould be nice if July 4th, 250th anniversary, the US were not at war.
‘Twould be nice if July 4th, 250th anniversary, the US were not at war.
What was the parade in DC for last year again?
Ukraine’s secret weapon: the Hopak.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pfceV8_8uGY&t=39s&pp=2AEnkAIB0gcJCToCo7VqN5tD&ra=m
This is very worrisome. Production needs to be ramped up rapidly. The threats and demand are both at high levels.
Re nuclear proliferation, your "at best the delay" of mass production of nuclear arms is the point of the "mow the grass/lawn" strategy that people have been discussing for months.
“As the nuclear threat slowly declines and the knee-jerk criticism of Trump’s strategy is seen for what it is, biased political commentary, the pedantic analysis from the elites will wither away. The neo-cons will be upset as well; a world that no longer needs their dreams of democracy at gunpoint, but does need hard borders, secure energy, and unapologetic American leverage, leaves them without a crusade. The Neo Cons will keep arguing about atmospherics and adjectives, but the system will already have moved on to more basic questions: which geography is safe, which supply is reliable, which political order keeps the lights on. On that map, Iran is not a pivot and Brussels is not a conscience. The United States is once again recognized, not as global schoolmaster, but as the indispensable guarantor. Just as the same class confidently dismissed Trump’s first run for president the day he came down the escalator, they will be wrong again about how Operation Epic Fury has changed the world, for the good”
Nailed it
https://twitter.com/WendellPierce/status/2058793822956491067
I am going to need someone to explain to me how we are in a better spot now than we were with the JCPOA (which I think was rightly criticized). Everything quoted there is just air. How are we safer? How do we look stronger? How did we remove the nuclear threat? Based off what I have seen/read, none of that is the case. And unlike the article which is vague and general with banalities, I will be more direct.
With respect to nuclear proliferation:
1. Initial deal leaks indicate Iran is still going to be able to enrich uranium to the same levels the JCPOA allowed.
2. Iran, even if it sells some of its 60% enriched uranium, is reportedly going to be able to keep enough to produce 2 nuclear weapons.
3. Iran has not indicated they will give up their nuclear program.
So at best you have done nothing but delay the mass production of nuclear arms. However, after watching all of their old heads get taken out, what is the #1 lesson you think all of these hardline guys that are left have learned? I think one of them is to get nukes ASAP.
With respect to power projection:
1. We are delivering billions of dollars of "pallets filled with cash" to extricate us from a fight that left Iran basically exactly where they were under the JCPOA. We showed we could blow stuff up but we got nowhere near accomplishing any goals from it.
2. We took on billions of dollars in damages and losses from this fight and when we got punched back, Trump folded like a cheap suit. He took a swing and then spent the rest of the time talking big and doing nothing.
3. He is handing one of the largest energy chokepoints for the world over to Iran who is signaling they are going to charge an extortion fee in the form of an "environmental tax" to ships transiting the Strait. All they have to do is convince Oman to get in on the grift. So not only is Trump handing Iran cash, he is apparently creating a new revenue stream for them. Great "hard border" being set up there.
4. We burned a bunch of munitions that will take years to replace and, per up above, we showed an extreme lack of commitment. I argue that Iran wrecked our image with some drones. We were ill prepared to defend against them and enough missiles to overload those defenses and we quit. That sends a bad message to friends and foes alike.
5. We caused economic hardship for and insulted most of our allies and we did it all to arrive back at a worse version of the JCPOA that they had all originally signed on to. From where they sit, America looks belligerently incompetent. That doesn't signal power to me.
I just need someone to pick apart those points. I will throw out the one caveat to avoid this being the answer to everything, we don't know the final deal but it is pretty likely that any deal is going to have some of the points listed in the X posting I linked.
It rests on an assumption that (1) we cannot even stop this regime from stopping nuclear weapon development , (2) that Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons, but (3) that it is better to periodically bomb them, destroy their infrastructure, cause chaos, etc. to delay them (ad infinitum?), than to invade them with boots on the ground and conquer them or remake their government--i.e. engage in nation building. It's the same strategy Israel has been using in Gaza.
I'm not a fan, but again, maybe it is the best that can be hoped for.
For those who critique this strategy, what do you suggest as the other options? We're already in the war, so suggesting we shouldn't have started it doesn't really help now. We have to do something moving forward. So what is it? Boots on the ground invasion to control the Strait, capture enriched uranium, or topple the government? More bombing? Change premises and agree to allow Iran to get a nuke?
Arm the protesters and supplement the hopeful revolution with our bombs on the IRGC's heads.
I'd love for that to work, but:Re nuclear proliferation, your "at best the delay" of mass production of nuclear arms is the point of the "mow the grass/lawn" strategy that people have been discussing for months.
“As the nuclear threat slowly declines and the knee-jerk criticism of Trump’s strategy is seen for what it is, biased political commentary, the pedantic analysis from the elites will wither away. The neo-cons will be upset as well; a world that no longer needs their dreams of democracy at gunpoint, but does need hard borders, secure energy, and unapologetic American leverage, leaves them without a crusade. The Neo Cons will keep arguing about atmospherics and adjectives, but the system will already have moved on to more basic questions: which geography is safe, which supply is reliable, which political order keeps the lights on. On that map, Iran is not a pivot and Brussels is not a conscience. The United States is once again recognized, not as global schoolmaster, but as the indispensable guarantor. Just as the same class confidently dismissed Trump’s first run for president the day he came down the escalator, they will be wrong again about how Operation Epic Fury has changed the world, for the good”
Nailed it
https://twitter.com/WendellPierce/status/2058793822956491067
I am going to need someone to explain to me how we are in a better spot now than we were with the JCPOA (which I think was rightly criticized). Everything quoted there is just air. How are we safer? How do we look stronger? How did we remove the nuclear threat? Based off what I have seen/read, none of that is the case. And unlike the article which is vague and general with banalities, I will be more direct.
With respect to nuclear proliferation:
1. Initial deal leaks indicate Iran is still going to be able to enrich uranium to the same levels the JCPOA allowed.
2. Iran, even if it sells some of its 60% enriched uranium, is reportedly going to be able to keep enough to produce 2 nuclear weapons.
3. Iran has not indicated they will give up their nuclear program.
So at best you have done nothing but delay the mass production of nuclear arms. However, after watching all of their old heads get taken out, what is the #1 lesson you think all of these hardline guys that are left have learned? I think one of them is to get nukes ASAP.
With respect to power projection:
1. We are delivering billions of dollars of "pallets filled with cash" to extricate us from a fight that left Iran basically exactly where they were under the JCPOA. We showed we could blow stuff up but we got nowhere near accomplishing any goals from it.
2. We took on billions of dollars in damages and losses from this fight and when we got punched back, Trump folded like a cheap suit. He took a swing and then spent the rest of the time talking big and doing nothing.
3. He is handing one of the largest energy chokepoints for the world over to Iran who is signaling they are going to charge an extortion fee in the form of an "environmental tax" to ships transiting the Strait. All they have to do is convince Oman to get in on the grift. So not only is Trump handing Iran cash, he is apparently creating a new revenue stream for them. Great "hard border" being set up there.
4. We burned a bunch of munitions that will take years to replace and, per up above, we showed an extreme lack of commitment. I argue that Iran wrecked our image with some drones. We were ill prepared to defend against them and enough missiles to overload those defenses and we quit. That sends a bad message to friends and foes alike.
5. We caused economic hardship for and insulted most of our allies and we did it all to arrive back at a worse version of the JCPOA that they had all originally signed on to. From where they sit, America looks belligerently incompetent. That doesn't signal power to me.
I just need someone to pick apart those points. I will throw out the one caveat to avoid this being the answer to everything, we don't know the final deal but it is pretty likely that any deal is going to have some of the points listed in the X posting I linked.
It rests on an assumption that (1) we cannot even stop this regime from stopping nuclear weapon development , (2) that Iran cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons, but (3) that it is better to periodically bomb them, destroy their infrastructure, cause chaos, etc. to delay them (ad infinitum?), than to invade them with boots on the ground and conquer them or remake their government--i.e. engage in nation building. It's the same strategy Israel has been using in Gaza.
I'm not a fan, but again, maybe it is the best that can be hoped for.
For those who critique this strategy, what do you suggest as the other options? We're already in the war, so suggesting we shouldn't have started it doesn't really help now. We have to do something moving forward. So what is it? Boots on the ground invasion to control the Strait, capture enriched uranium, or topple the government? More bombing? Change premises and agree to allow Iran to get a nuke?
Arm the protesters and supplement the hopeful revolution with our bombs on the IRGC's heads.
Do you know a historical example of where that worked?
My reading of the body politics gut feelings at this point in time can be summed up by saying, "We lost".
What can the Trump administration do to regain public support and somehow restore a sense of victory?
Finally, has the U.S. and Isreal managed to lose the respect of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf?
