@bar-down and this is what we had:
- Uranium Enrichment Levels: Iran agreed to keep its uranium enrichment level at 3.67% for 15 years, well below the ~90% level needed for a nuclear weapon.
- Stockpile Reduction: Iran was required to reduce its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98% (from 10,000 kg to 300 kg) and to keep it at this level for 15 years.
- Centrifuge Limits: Iran agreed to reduce its operational centrifuges by two-thirds, limiting them to 6,104 for a decade, with only 5,060 permitted to enrich uranium.
- No Enrichment at Fordow: Enrichment was completely paused at the Fordow underground facility for 15 years.
@arthur-dent and they breached and if we are to believe reports they enriched to dangerous levels so here we are again. countries breach. people breach. businesses breach. so shit happens and new deals get done. it seems to me this is just how some countries in the ME, N Korea, etc do business. what else can ya do
I'd guess that a response could be that Iran's nuclear program has been set back much further and so an agreement to suspend enrichment (that we know they will try to cheat on no matter what, but will slow them down some) makes more sense. In contrast. Obama made a deal with Iran when their program was much further developed and so the suspension agreement was not useful. All of this would fit the Mow-the-Lawn strategy that doesn't really appeal to me very much.
Do I know the facts backing up that possible explanation to be true? Nope. Do I think Trump is eloquent enough to explain it? Nope.
But a deal with the same structure but much different circumstances is not the same deal. Same applies in the business world.
How different are the circumstances? If we can't prove the program is so destroyed that it is materially different, we should just trust?
Trust or don’t trust. You and I have no power to change it. I’d suggest healthy skepticism towards the government and people in power is always appropriate.But I’m explaining how one could differentiate the deals and under what strategic scenarios it would make sense. When nukes are involved, the calculus gets altered greatly.
@bar-down we know Iran breached in 2019, after we tore it up. Can you link something from before 2019?
@arthur-dent thread broke. why would i link something from before 2019. i care about today. the reports are that enrichment levels were reaching dangerous levels.
thread broke. why would i link something from before 2019. i care about today. the reports are that enrichment levels were reaching dangerous levels.
Because we had a deal that Trump tore up in 2018. Is it a breach by Iran if we ripped it up first?
I haven't said anything yet about Midnight Hammer, and I have zero issues with it. Trump said it set Iran back "decades". Hegseth said that Iran's program was "obliterated." If any of that is true, what was the current war for?
@twenty this thread is fckd. because we weren't the only party to it. iran as i understand it ended the ten year agreement in 2025. so now here we are nearly a year later with reported worrisome levels of enrichment. if other parties are feckless, if other countries are feckless, were we to sit idly by or do what we did and now enter a new arrangement that kicks the can again for however long. what's the alternative? nuke them?
@arthur-dent probably semantics to some degree. but i would imagine destroying facilities and destroying uranium aren't necessarily congruent. they can just move the enrichment operations. i'm guessing here
One nontrivial difference is the surrounding circumstances. Iran no longer has an Air Force or a navy. Their top leadership was decapitated. Israel has killed many of their top scientists.@spartans9312 maybe @carramrod can explain how this proposed 'deal'... Which is just a MOU at this point.... Is anything different than JCPOA that Trump killed 8 years ago?
1) Iran agrees to suspend enrichmentb for X number of years
2) We release billions in frozen Iranian assets...
https://www.axios.com/2026/05/06/iran-us-deal-one-page-memo
This President is Epic Moron.
That creates a different leverage for enforcement of uranium and enrichment. it might even be easier now for Israel to continue it’s surreptitious killing of Iranian scientists.
@bar-down we know Iran breached in 2019, after we tore it up. Can you link something from before 2019?
There's no evidence that Iran breached the JCPOA before Trump violated the agreement by reimposing sanctions and withdrawing the US from the accord.
Trump will get a deal that is no better than what Obama got in 2015 but he'll tout it as the greatest deal in the history of deal-making, like nobody's ever seen before.
