Trump badly underestimated the resolve (and firepower) of the crazy and malevolent IRGC.
"Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began."
"One of the U.S. officials who spoke to The Washington Post said they thought Iran’s capacity to endure prolonged economic hardship is far greater than even the CIA estimate. 'The leadership has gotten more radical, determined and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance' inside Iran, the official said. 'Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.'”
U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s blockade for months - The Washington Post
https://twitter.com/SpencerGuard/status/2053587830123978997
So we spent $25-50B to "mow the lawn" and now go back to living with the same regime? Nobody should be convinced that's a strategic win.
Are we considering this a success only if there is complete capitulation? Are we considering it a success for Iran if all they do is survive?
What successions are we getting from Iran?
If in time it comes that we basically get the same deal as Obama got, then we lost.
Are we considering this a success only if there is complete capitulation? Are we considering it a success for Iran if all they do is survive?
Pretty much. Iran has had a fear of what being attacked by the US and Israel would be like. Now they know the reality. That fear was far greater than what this reality is. China and Russia will rebuild Iran pretty quickly. Iran will feel even less need for restraint
Picture your average boy afraid of getting paddled. They finally step over the line and get paddled. Now they know what it is and now it doesn't strike the fear it once had
As to Russia and China, CNN has a story up of a Russian ship sinking in 2024. It is believed it was carrying submarine nuclear reactors to North Korea. And it is believed we torpedoed it (Biden's administration). If they are sending those to North Korea, what will they send Iran?
Trump pictures himself a tough guy, but he pays people to do his dirty work and gets squeamish at the details. He chose to go up against people who will gut someone for fun. We were not prepared for their response. I hate to say it, but we need to take Kharg Island to get the bargaining chip we need. That is at a minimum. We may end up having to take their entire coastline, fill it with defensive weapons to open the Straight.
Are we considering this a success only if there is complete capitulation? Are we considering it a success for Iran if all they do is survive?
Pretty much. Iran has had a fear of what being attacked by the US and Israel would be like. Now they know the reality. That fear was far greater than what this reality is. China and Russia will rebuild Iran pretty quickly. Iran will feel even less need for restraint
Picture your average boy afraid of getting paddled. They finally step over the line and get paddled. Now they know what it is and now it doesn't strike the fear it once had
As to Russia and China, CNN has a story up of a Russian ship sinking in 2024. It is believed it was carrying submarine nuclear reactors to North Korea. And it is believed we torpedoed it (Biden's administration). If they are sending those to North Korea, what will they send Iran?
Trump pictures himself a tough guy, but he pays people to do his dirty work and gets squeamish at the details. He chose to go up against people who will gut someone for fun. We were not prepared for their response. I hate to say it, but we need to take Kharg Island to get the bargaining chip we need. That is at a minimum. We may end up having to take their entire coastline, fill it with defensive weapons to open the Straight.
This reads like Chinese propaganda. Iran is done. The world will move away from dependence of oil coming through Hormuz over the next decade.
What successions are we getting from Iran?
If in time it comes that we basically get the same deal as Obama got, then we lost.
I think you meant to write “concessions,” but whatever Iran ends up conceding remains to be seen.
Trump was emboldened by the ease and success of the military operation in Venezuela and he was assured by others (including Lindsey Graham) that Iran would be a relatively quick and easy win because of our vastly superior military, and that our success there would “cement his legacy” as one of the most consequential presidents in history. Talk like that, that strokes Trump’s ego, is music to his ears. Sadly, though, he is not a student of history and didn’t understand that wars in that part of the world are easy to start but difficult to finish.
The IRGC leadership consists of crazed, tenacious religious zealots. They have enormous resolve and will hold out as long as humanly possible. They will also do everything they can to embarrass and humiliate Trump, just as they did with Carter 47 years ago. I’m reading that they can withstand the US blockade for at least another two to three months. I’m also reading that, contrary to Trump’s propaganda, they are far from decimated militarily. They retain 75 percent of their prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of their prewar stockpiles of missiles. They can maintain control of the Strait indefinitely if they choose, absent a ground invasion by the US. And a ground invasion would, of course, come with casualties.
I no longer believe Trump will be able to get things to where they were under the JCPOA. And whatever he gets will be after the loss of at least 13 American servicemen and women, injuries (some serious) to hundreds more, hundreds of billions of dollars spent, a global financial crisis with soaring prices on gas and other products for American consumers, and a serious and worrisome depletion of our munitions that will take at least two years to replenish.
Trump is boxed in, with no endgame in sight. He's created a big fucking mess that he can't easily clean up.
What successions are we getting from Iran?
If in time it comes that we basically get the same deal as Obama got, then we lost.
I think you meant to write “concessions,” but whatever Iran ends up conceding remains to be seen.
Trump was emboldened by the ease and success of the military operation in Venezuela and he was assured by others (including Lindsey Graham) that Iran would be a relatively quick and easy win because of our vastly superior military, and that our success there would “cement his legacy” as one of the most consequential presidents in history. Talk like that, that strokes Trump’s ego, is music to his ears. Sadly, though, he is not a student of history and didn’t understand that wars in that part of the world are easy to start but difficult to finish.
The IRGC leadership consists of crazed, tenacious religious zealots. They have enormous resolve and will hold out as long as humanly possible. They will also do everything they can to embarrass and humiliate Trump, just as they did with Carter 47 years ago. I’m reading that they can withstand the US blockade for at least another two to three months. I’m also reading that, contrary to Trump’s propaganda, they are far from decimated militarily. They retain 75 percent of their prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of their prewar stockpiles of missiles. They can maintain control of the Strait indefinitely if they choose, absent a ground invasion by the US. And a ground invasion would, of course, come with casualties.
I no longer believe Trump will be able to get things to where they were under the JCPOA. And whatever he gets will be after the loss of at least 13 American servicemen and women, injuries (some serious) to hundreds more, hundreds of billions of dollars spent, a global financial crisis with soaring prices on gas and other products for American consumers, and a serious and worrisome depletion of our munitions that will take at least two years to replenish.
Trump is boxed in, with no endgame in sight. He's created a big fucking mess that he can't easily clean up.
Yes, thank you.
My redbull had run out when I wrote my post.
A few updates in this article. https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-uae-iron-dome-f3d5738853111cfc80985c157edab7c3
I don't know if Iran is actually trying to build nuclear weapons but, even if they are, why do we care? Gas prices are way too high. I think we should leave Iran alone and they'll leave us alone, right?
I saw an interesting idea today. The conventional wisdom is the Straight being closed is bad for China. Short term, yes. But China plays the long game. Where the US is all in on oil, China leads the world in sole, battery, wind technology. If this convinced more countries to transfer more of their economy from oil, China wins.
I saw an interesting idea today. The conventional wisdom is the Straight being closed is bad for China. Short term, yes. But China plays the long game. Where the US is all in on oil, China leads the world in sole, battery, wind technology. If this convinced more countries to transfer more of their economy from oil, China wins.
All of this should be prompting US to focus more on renewable energy, but that won't happen with this clown/crook in the Oval. His oil industry buds are big supporters and make him richer.
All of this should be prompting US to focus more on renewable energy, but that won't happen with this clown/crook in the Oval. His oil industry buds are big supporters and make him richer.
Yep, and China is way ahead of us on these technologies, so if someone makes a great breakthrough it will be them. They will get the massive boost from it, not us. Too many Americans believe anything that isn't oil is a communist plot.
Trump canceling that wind farm by paying them 1 billion dollars is quite honestly, one of the dumber things he has done.
1) Power consumption is this country is only going to go up. Regardless of how you feel about the effectiveness of renewable energy sources versus fossil fuels, it was still a bought / paid for investment that would have added needed watts to our power grid. There was very little downside to adding extra sources of power when there are always going to be things that can cause outages at coal plants (ie. random fires that can shut down a coal plant for a day - that happens alot more often than you might think).
2) I thought this administration was supposed to be all about finding accountability for frivolous spending? We are now sending a billion dollars away for literally nothing.
3) This was an off-shore wind farm. So it's not like it was killing anyone's property values, which is the biggest valid argument I have seen from the anti-wind farm groups.
4) Despite what conservatives will tell you, "drill baby drill" is great in theory, but I'm seeing some oil guys saying that we have actually maxed out our current oil producing capacity, especially considering the lack of new wells that are currently on the books to be drilled. We are the largest producer in the world at the moment, but that may change if OPEC / the ME decide to ramp up production. Energy prices are already climbing rapidly. That wind farm would have provided energy that would have helped, albeit just slightly, to keep some of the oil prices from rising.
Trump badly underestimated the resolve (and firepower) of the crazy and malevolent IRGC.
"Iran retains about 75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles, a U.S. official said. The official said there is evidence that the regime has been able to recover and reopen almost all of its underground storage facilities, repair some damaged missiles and even assemble some new missiles that were nearly complete when the war began."
"One of the U.S. officials who spoke to The Washington Post said they thought Iran’s capacity to endure prolonged economic hardship is far greater than even the CIA estimate. 'The leadership has gotten more radical, determined and increasingly confident they can outlast U.S. political will and sustain domestic repression to check any resistance' inside Iran, the official said. 'Comparatively, you see similar regimes lasting years under sustained embargoes and airpower-only wars.'”
U.S. intelligence says Iran can outlast Trump’s blockade for months - The Washington Post
https://twitter.com/SpencerGuard/status/2053587830123978997
So we spent $25-50B to "mow the lawn" and now go back to living with the same regime? Nobody should be convinced that's a strategic win.
Are we considering this a success only if there is complete capitulation? Are we considering it a success for Iran if all they do is survive?
False dichotomy. There's a universe of possibilities between Twenty's phrasing and yours.
We don't need regime change to claim a victory. But we certainly need a helluva lot more than just a temporary disruption to their strategic capabilities.