There's a big dichotomy between what is important for Israel and what's important for the rest of the globe. You're seeing that play out now.
What do you see as the big dichotomy? Israel wants a stable region that won't attack it or fund terrorism against it. Wouldn't a stable Middle East that moves away from terrorism be a good thing for the rest of the globe? I think those two things are pretty closely aligned.
All in all, I appreciate your view. But I'm not sure its born out by the facts. Or at least what I consider a reasonable interpretation of those facts.I don't know the answer the original question, but I do wonder if the actions Trump has taken has made it more or less likely Iran is able to build a nuclear weapon to potentially use it. If the JCPOA had remained in tact would we have been better off long term?
The JCPOA was never a long-term solution. Under the terms at the time, Iran would have eventually been back to building a nuke, anyway. The purpose of the JCPOA was just to buy time.
IIUC, there were expiration/sunset provisions built in, but those served more as signals for renegotiation than turning Iran loose.
Renegotiation? As you get closer to those dates, Iran has all of the leverage. Reasonable negotiations were never a realistic expectation.
I have to disagree. Iran stayed in compliance with JCPOA, which the Trump administration confirmed in 2018. Once Trump pulled out, they went from no enrichment, to enough for a dozen nukes in the last 8 years.
After all of this, what leverage was gained, and by whom? All we have now shown is our capability and our weakness. And are in much worse leverage position than we were 8 years ago. Complete strategic failure.
Shot our wad and now look like the limp dick.
The Iranians want money. Foreign investment. And they are clearly much better at negotiating than we are.
First, saying the Trump administration confirmed something isn't very convincing, is it?
Iran has a long track record of hiding its nuclear work from the IAEA--Natanz and Fordow enrichment sites were both built in secret and only exposed by outside intelligence. The pre-2003 weapons program was concealed for years. And Mossad captured 2018 dox that showed Iran had access to confidential IAEA reocrds and used them to build cover storeis to hide parts of its program. The JCPOA stated Iran had to come clean about its nuclear development and those dox showed it was actively concealing and preserving it during the deal. So maybe they complied with enrichment restrictions during the JCPOA--maybe--but they certainly lied about what they had going into it.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-707661
Second, if you're going to trust Iran now regarding their lack of nuclear development, why don't you trust them w/r/t what they say about "death to Israel" and "death to the United States?" How is that in their personal economic interests? How is it rational for them to continue to fund terrorist attacks against Israel? If they were just economic rational actors, they wouldn't be continually seeking to undermine areas of the Middle East, would they?
https://www.hoover.org/research/threat-any-language
None of us know the truth on any of this, but I think there is a lot more evidence of them lying about their nuclear ambitions than there is about their ambitions to destroy Israel and screw with the U.S.
I thought it was because you sexually harrassed all the secretaries?Sales teams cause a lot of litigation
Because we use phrases like "signal for renegotiation"
The good old days!
Hope is not optimism, which expects things to turn out well, but something rooted in the conviction that there is good worth working for. - Seamus Heaney, Irish poet and likely Hoosier basketball fan.
POTFB
I don't know the answer the original question, but I do wonder if the actions Trump has taken has made it more or less likely Iran is able to build a nuclear weapon to potentially use it. If the JCPOA had remained in tact would we have been better off long term?
The JCPOA was never a long-term solution. Under the terms at the time, Iran would have eventually been back to building a nuke, anyway. The purpose of the JCPOA was just to buy time.
IIUC, there were expiration/sunset provisions built in, but those served more as signals for renegotiation than turning Iran loose.
Renegotiation? As you get closer to those dates, Iran has all of the leverage. Reasonable negotiations were never a realistic expectation.
I have to disagree. Iran stayed in compliance with JCPOA, which the Trump administration confirmed in 2018. Once Trump pulled out, they went from no enrichment, to enough for a dozen nukes in the last 8 years.
After all of this, what leverage was gained, and by whom? All we have now shown is our capability and our weakness. And are in much worse leverage position than we were 8 years ago. Complete strategic failure.
Shot our wad and now look like the limp dick.
The Iranians want money. Foreign investment. And they are clearly much better at negotiating than we are.
This is inaccurate.
Compliance with the JCPOA only matters if the agreement was all-encompassing (provided unlimited and undeterred access), which it was not. There were countless demonstrations of limited inspector access and of rogue development sites that were not disclosed to the IAEA and Western governments.
Secondly, Iran was already enriching uranium up to 20% before the agreement was even signed. That enrichment was capped and monitored (based on access) under the JCPOA, but that work was being done regardless.
I don't disagree with the failed or flawed approach, but the JCPOA also didn't deter Iran from arming its proxies and giving a green light to start the ongoing war.
You can be certain they would…
Their “Revolutionary Guard” is nothing more than a death cult who believes they are the only true believers and everyone else on the planet are simply infidels to be destroyed… (there’s a lot more detail to it but that’s the bottom line/end result for them)…
In my opinion, we’re fooling ourselves by negotiating with them. Eventually…, we’ll end up right back at close to our original starting point in about 4-5 years… Except at that point they’ll not only have a Nuke but also the means to deliver it…
We should be dictating terms to them, not negotiating with those cretins…
"cretin"
.
All in all, I appreciate your view. But I'm not sure its born out by the facts. Or at least what I consider a reasonable interpretation of those facts.I don't know the answer the original question, but I do wonder if the actions Trump has taken has made it more or less likely Iran is able to build a nuclear weapon to potentially use it. If the JCPOA had remained in tact would we have been better off long term?
The JCPOA was never a long-term solution. Under the terms at the time, Iran would have eventually been back to building a nuke, anyway. The purpose of the JCPOA was just to buy time.
IIUC, there were expiration/sunset provisions built in, but those served more as signals for renegotiation than turning Iran loose.
Renegotiation? As you get closer to those dates, Iran has all of the leverage. Reasonable negotiations were never a realistic expectation.
I have to disagree. Iran stayed in compliance with JCPOA, which the Trump administration confirmed in 2018. Once Trump pulled out, they went from no enrichment, to enough for a dozen nukes in the last 8 years.
After all of this, what leverage was gained, and by whom? All we have now shown is our capability and our weakness. And are in much worse leverage position than we were 8 years ago. Complete strategic failure.
Shot our wad and now look like the limp dick.
The Iranians want money. Foreign investment. And they are clearly much better at negotiating than we are.
First, saying the Trump administration confirmed something isn't very convincing, is it?
Iran has a long track record of hiding its nuclear work from the IAEA--Natanz and Fordow enrichment sites were both built in secret and only exposed by outside intelligence. The pre-2003 weapons program was concealed for years. And Mossad captured 2018 dox that showed Iran had access to confidential IAEA reocrds and used them to build cover storeis to hide parts of its program. The JCPOA stated Iran had to come clean about its nuclear development and those dox showed it was actively concealing and preserving it during the deal. So maybe they complied with enrichment restrictions during the JCPOA--maybe--but they certainly lied about what they had going into it.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-707661
Second, if you're going to trust Iran now regarding their lack of nuclear development, why don't you trust them w/r/t what they say about "death to Israel" and "death to the United States?" How is that in their personal economic interests? How is it rational for them to continue to fund terrorist attacks against Israel? If they were just economic rational actors, they wouldn't be continually seeking to undermine areas of the Middle East, would they?
https://www.hoover.org/research/threat-any-language
None of us know the truth on any of this, but I think there is a lot more evidence of them lying about their nuclear ambitions than there is about their ambitions to destroy Israel and screw with the U.S.
Personally, I'm not sure why we are okay with Israel having nukes. People don't know how many they even have because they won't say. How is that okay?
Why are there rules for others that Israel doesn't have to follow?
All in all, I appreciate your view. But I'm not sure its born out by the facts. Or at least what I consider a reasonable interpretation of those facts.I don't know the answer the original question, but I do wonder if the actions Trump has taken has made it more or less likely Iran is able to build a nuclear weapon to potentially use it. If the JCPOA had remained in tact would we have been better off long term?
The JCPOA was never a long-term solution. Under the terms at the time, Iran would have eventually been back to building a nuke, anyway. The purpose of the JCPOA was just to buy time.
IIUC, there were expiration/sunset provisions built in, but those served more as signals for renegotiation than turning Iran loose.
Renegotiation? As you get closer to those dates, Iran has all of the leverage. Reasonable negotiations were never a realistic expectation.
I have to disagree. Iran stayed in compliance with JCPOA, which the Trump administration confirmed in 2018. Once Trump pulled out, they went from no enrichment, to enough for a dozen nukes in the last 8 years.
After all of this, what leverage was gained, and by whom? All we have now shown is our capability and our weakness. And are in much worse leverage position than we were 8 years ago. Complete strategic failure.
Shot our wad and now look like the limp dick.
The Iranians want money. Foreign investment. And they are clearly much better at negotiating than we are.
First, saying the Trump administration confirmed something isn't very convincing, is it?
Iran has a long track record of hiding its nuclear work from the IAEA--Natanz and Fordow enrichment sites were both built in secret and only exposed by outside intelligence. The pre-2003 weapons program was concealed for years. And Mossad captured 2018 dox that showed Iran had access to confidential IAEA reocrds and used them to build cover storeis to hide parts of its program. The JCPOA stated Iran had to come clean about its nuclear development and those dox showed it was actively concealing and preserving it during the deal. So maybe they complied with enrichment restrictions during the JCPOA--maybe--but they certainly lied about what they had going into it.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-707661
Second, if you're going to trust Iran now regarding their lack of nuclear development, why don't you trust them w/r/t what they say about "death to Israel" and "death to the United States?" How is that in their personal economic interests? How is it rational for them to continue to fund terrorist attacks against Israel? If they were just economic rational actors, they wouldn't be continually seeking to undermine areas of the Middle East, would they?
https://www.hoover.org/research/threat-any-language
None of us know the truth on any of this, but I think there is a lot more evidence of them lying about their nuclear ambitions than there is about their ambitions to destroy Israel and screw with the U.S.
Personally, I'm not sure why we are okay with Israel having nukes. People don't know how many they even have because they won't say. How is that okay?
Why are there rules for others that Israel doesn't have to follow?
We should just get out of the way and let Israel do as they decide. Trump’s biggest issue is he wants credit for everything and can’t shut up.
We should just get out of the way and let Israel do as they decide. Trump’s biggest issue is he wants credit for everything and can’t shut up.
You're right about Trump, but it's far more than that. Israel would not exist without our backing. They need to be reminded of that. We may be approaching a time when that is politically possible.
We should just get out of the way and let Israel do as they decide. Trump’s biggest issue is he wants credit for everything and can’t shut up.
You're right about Trump, but it's far more than that. Israel would not exist without our backing. They need to be reminded of that. We may be approaching a time when that is politically possible.
There is a difference between defense and offense and the way you go about offense. The defense is baked in.
It's "OK" because they have them. That's the point. Once a nation gets them, there is little you can do about it. Same rule applies to Pakistan and North Korea, not just Israel.All in all, I appreciate your view. But I'm not sure its born out by the facts. Or at least what I consider a reasonable interpretation of those facts.I don't know the answer the original question, but I do wonder if the actions Trump has taken has made it more or less likely Iran is able to build a nuclear weapon to potentially use it. If the JCPOA had remained in tact would we have been better off long term?
The JCPOA was never a long-term solution. Under the terms at the time, Iran would have eventually been back to building a nuke, anyway. The purpose of the JCPOA was just to buy time.
IIUC, there were expiration/sunset provisions built in, but those served more as signals for renegotiation than turning Iran loose.
Renegotiation? As you get closer to those dates, Iran has all of the leverage. Reasonable negotiations were never a realistic expectation.
I have to disagree. Iran stayed in compliance with JCPOA, which the Trump administration confirmed in 2018. Once Trump pulled out, they went from no enrichment, to enough for a dozen nukes in the last 8 years.
After all of this, what leverage was gained, and by whom? All we have now shown is our capability and our weakness. And are in much worse leverage position than we were 8 years ago. Complete strategic failure.
Shot our wad and now look like the limp dick.
The Iranians want money. Foreign investment. And they are clearly much better at negotiating than we are.
First, saying the Trump administration confirmed something isn't very convincing, is it?
Iran has a long track record of hiding its nuclear work from the IAEA--Natanz and Fordow enrichment sites were both built in secret and only exposed by outside intelligence. The pre-2003 weapons program was concealed for years. And Mossad captured 2018 dox that showed Iran had access to confidential IAEA reocrds and used them to build cover storeis to hide parts of its program. The JCPOA stated Iran had to come clean about its nuclear development and those dox showed it was actively concealing and preserving it during the deal. So maybe they complied with enrichment restrictions during the JCPOA--maybe--but they certainly lied about what they had going into it.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-707661
Second, if you're going to trust Iran now regarding their lack of nuclear development, why don't you trust them w/r/t what they say about "death to Israel" and "death to the United States?" How is that in their personal economic interests? How is it rational for them to continue to fund terrorist attacks against Israel? If they were just economic rational actors, they wouldn't be continually seeking to undermine areas of the Middle East, would they?
https://www.hoover.org/research/threat-any-language
None of us know the truth on any of this, but I think there is a lot more evidence of them lying about their nuclear ambitions than there is about their ambitions to destroy Israel and screw with the U.S.
Personally, I'm not sure why we are okay with Israel having nukes. People don't know how many they even have because they won't say. How is that okay?
Why are there rules for others that Israel doesn't have to follow?
It's "OK" because they have them. That's the point. Once a nation gets them, there is little you can do about it. Same rule applies to Pakistan and North Korea, not just Israel.All in all, I appreciate your view. But I'm not sure its born out by the facts. Or at least what I consider a reasonable interpretation of those facts.I don't know the answer the original question, but I do wonder if the actions Trump has taken has made it more or less likely Iran is able to build a nuclear weapon to potentially use it. If the JCPOA had remained in tact would we have been better off long term?
The JCPOA was never a long-term solution. Under the terms at the time, Iran would have eventually been back to building a nuke, anyway. The purpose of the JCPOA was just to buy time.
IIUC, there were expiration/sunset provisions built in, but those served more as signals for renegotiation than turning Iran loose.
Renegotiation? As you get closer to those dates, Iran has all of the leverage. Reasonable negotiations were never a realistic expectation.
I have to disagree. Iran stayed in compliance with JCPOA, which the Trump administration confirmed in 2018. Once Trump pulled out, they went from no enrichment, to enough for a dozen nukes in the last 8 years.
After all of this, what leverage was gained, and by whom? All we have now shown is our capability and our weakness. And are in much worse leverage position than we were 8 years ago. Complete strategic failure.
Shot our wad and now look like the limp dick.
The Iranians want money. Foreign investment. And they are clearly much better at negotiating than we are.
First, saying the Trump administration confirmed something isn't very convincing, is it?
Iran has a long track record of hiding its nuclear work from the IAEA--Natanz and Fordow enrichment sites were both built in secret and only exposed by outside intelligence. The pre-2003 weapons program was concealed for years. And Mossad captured 2018 dox that showed Iran had access to confidential IAEA reocrds and used them to build cover storeis to hide parts of its program. The JCPOA stated Iran had to come clean about its nuclear development and those dox showed it was actively concealing and preserving it during the deal. So maybe they complied with enrichment restrictions during the JCPOA--maybe--but they certainly lied about what they had going into it.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-707661
Second, if you're going to trust Iran now regarding their lack of nuclear development, why don't you trust them w/r/t what they say about "death to Israel" and "death to the United States?" How is that in their personal economic interests? How is it rational for them to continue to fund terrorist attacks against Israel? If they were just economic rational actors, they wouldn't be continually seeking to undermine areas of the Middle East, would they?
https://www.hoover.org/research/threat-any-language
None of us know the truth on any of this, but I think there is a lot more evidence of them lying about their nuclear ambitions than there is about their ambitions to destroy Israel and screw with the U.S.
Personally, I'm not sure why we are okay with Israel having nukes. People don't know how many they even have because they won't say. How is that okay?
Why are there rules for others that Israel doesn't have to follow?
How many nukes does Israel have compared to North Korea and Pakistan?
@bradstevens who says anything about trusting Iran? Nobody should trust them. That was the entire point of the inspection regime, and why I'm sure far from perfect, was at least containing the enrichment situation. My point is only we've achieved very little with this war other than mowing the lawn (at best). The strikes last summer were a different story. But we're now back with another deal that's basically the same thing we had. That's not a strategic success.
@jdb they were at 20% enrichment before the deal, but did they not blend down, post deal? The reported breakout time was significantly extended.
The proxy issue wasn't touched by JCPOA, and it's not touched under the current MOU. So no progress there either.
I get that. It's not what anybody wants. But some people in the foreign policy realm have been saying that the mowing the lawn strategy might be the best we can do with this regime. I'm not sold on it, either, but I don't think there are any good answers here.@bradstevens who says anything about trusting Iran? Nobody should trust them. That was the entire point of the inspection regime, and why I'm sure far from perfect, was at least containing the enrichment situation. My point is only we've achieved very little with this war other than mowing the lawn (at best). The strikes last summer were a different story. But we're now back with another deal that's basically the same thing we had. That's not a strategic success.
The biggest problem for the American public in talking about and evaluating this, though, is that Trump is a shitty communicator on this stuff and didn't realize the importance of getting public buy-in for a move this big. Had he done that all at the outset, I think we'd be talking about this war and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz in a different light. It certainly would have insulated him from most of this "the-Jews-are-controlling-him" nonsense.