@d-b-cooper I think there are a lot of folks that would feel like they have an axe to grind if it came down to choosing IU or another school for the CFP. The general feeling is that we didn’t belong last year. So, yeah, I think we could get screwed. As you note, it’s not so black and white.
I'm sooooooo used to IU football taking 1 step forward, then 2,3,10 steps backwards.
So... just be similar to what we were last year. I know last year felt like a miracle, fluke, for many...but we beat, the hell, out of 10 of our 12 regular season opponents. That's not a fluke. And most think we upgraded talent at most positions.
Looking at this years schedule...
Beat the brakes off the 3 out of conference opponents. I think ODU is probably better than their name recognition would say, but gotta thump them anyways.
Control Michigan State, UCLA, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Purdue. Obviously a couple of these are road games...any B10 program is capable of beating Indiana. But outside major injuries, losing any of these games would be a step backwards versus last year, in my opinion.
Split with Illinois and Iowa. Not saying I won't be SUPER pissed if we lose the Illinois game. I think we should beat them. But there are some that see them as close to a top 10 team, that isn't an accident. Iowa isn't as good as Illinois, if IU plays well, we should beat them. But winning at Kinnick is never easy, for anyone. And it sounds like they think they finally have a quarterback that can move the ball. Which would make them very dangerous as they will obviously have a very good run game and very good defense.
Even if Oregon and PSU thump us, if we do all of the rest, it'll be a similar season to last year. We'll be 9-3, instead of 11-1, but I wouldn't necesarilly see that as a step back, or an unsuccessful season.
You can be damn sure that if IU were to finish 10-2 this year, there will be all sorts of lobbying by the SEC apologists to put in a 10-2 or 9-3 SEC team into the CFP ahead of IU. Those SEC promoters are going to be loud this season about SOS and after an offseason of constant IU bashing, they will definitely make their voices heard to the committee. IU would have to get 11 wins to get to the CFP, IMO.
Come on. 10-2 with competitive games at Oregon and PSU and we’re likely in.
We’ll cross this bridge though if we get to it.
I think our defense will be the main reason we go 9-3.
Hell, why not beat PSU (again) and go 10-2?
8-4 would be disappointing, IMO.
I'm pretty pessimistic about our playoff chances as ESPN has been able to establish the narrative that if we go 10-2 with close losses at Oregon and PSU, which would be one hell of a season. we'll get screwed over in favor of an SEC team. There wasn't much pushback to that last year.
I'm sooooooo used to IU football taking 1 step forward, then 2,3,10 steps backwards.
So... just be similar to what we were last year. I know last year felt like a miracle, fluke, for many...but we beat, the hell, out of 10 of our 12 regular season opponents. That's not a fluke. And most think we upgraded talent at most positions.
Looking at this years schedule...
Beat the brakes off the 3 out of conference opponents. I think ODU is probably better than their name recognition would say, but gotta thump them anyways.
Control Michigan State, UCLA, Wisconsin, Maryland, and Purdue. Obviously a couple of these are road games...any B10 program is capable of beating Indiana. But outside major injuries, losing any of these games would be a step backwards versus last year, in my opinion.
Split with Illinois and Iowa. Not saying I won't be SUPER pissed if we lose the Illinois game. I think we should beat them. But there are some that see them as close to a top 10 team, that isn't an accident. Iowa isn't as good as Illinois, if IU plays well, we should beat them. But winning at Kinnick is never easy, for anyone. And it sounds like they think they finally have a quarterback that can move the ball. Which would make them very dangerous as they will obviously have a very good run game and very good defense.
Even if Oregon and PSU thump us, if we do all of the rest, it'll be a similar season to last year. We'll be 9-3, instead of 11-1, but I wouldn't necesarilly see that as a step back, or an unsuccessful season.
The Iowa game is a scary one......would not be shocked at all if we beat Illinois but lose at Iowa.
Well, I was arguing 10-2 would get us in. But our odds are +610 to make the playoff (14% chance) and 10+ wins is +280 (26% chance). So, unless I'm reading these odds wrong, the betting markets don't think 10-2 is a given to get us in. I admit defeat on this point.
The defense will likely have to win the Iowa game. The offense needs to avoid turnovers as well.
Iowa’s new QB was successful in the FCS but the Big Ten is a huge step up.
The defense will likely have to win the Iowa game. The offense needs to avoid turnovers as well.
Iowa’s new QB was successful in the FCS but the Big Ten is a huge step up.
Falls under the category of "Its not who you play, its when (and where) you play them". First road game of the year. 1 week after an intense buildup for Illinois and a hard-fought game. I feel more confident about Illinois than I do about Iowa.
Right. Very few teams win at Iowa, Oregon, or Penn State period. But if IU is going to elevate itself into an upper tier program it has to win in one of those venues.
@mushroomgod I’m not arguing any of that but in no way would a tied for second B1G team be left out. The records are important but where you place in the conference standings matter. A 10-2 in 4th place vs. tied for second is worlds apart and a very good chance of happening either way.
@tammany it would if you place 3rd or higher in the conference. Like I said above. A 10-2 second place vs 10-2 in 4th is worlds apart imho.
We’d have to go 11-1 to get into the CFP again, and I don’t see that happening with this schedule. Of course, I never dreamt last season would turn out like it did.
9-3 would be a success; momentum sustaining. A bowl win would be icing on the cake.
I think bowl reps would love having Indiana’s exciting brand of ball, and they know we have a large alumni fan base. Bet we’d get a sweet bid at 9-3.
It all depends on how teams around the country do, but I have a hard time believing that a 10-2 IU doesn't make the CFP again.
That would imply wins in at least 2 of 4 against Illinois, @ Iowa, @ Oregon, & @ Penn St. in addition to the other 8 wins.