Inside the Numbers: Indiana vs. Idaho
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Written by: Nate Comp (@NathanComp1)
We will kick off the beginning of each game week with a deeper dive into the stats for Indiana’s upcoming matchup. While last week I highlighted Illinois because they had a week zero game and data to dive into, this week I will get Indiana-centric as the Hoosiers now have one win under their belt, and with it, data to be analyzed.
While it is just one game’s worth of data, last week’s game against Illinois is especially telling because of the secrecy around Indiana’s offseason. Coach Tom Allen did not publicly announce a starting quarterback (or even release a depth chart), the Hoosiers entered the matchup with numerous transfers, and both sides of the ball saw new coordinators at the helm. There were a ton of unknowns, but, if week one is a sign of what is to come, we can begin to form conclusions.
For the second straight season, Indiana will face the Idaho Vandals in week two; let’s see what the numbers tell us we should be on the lookout for in this matchup.
74.19%
One of Indiana’s biggest changes this offseason came when Allen decided to part ways with offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan and hire former UMass head coach Walt Bell. While Bell has coordinator experience on his resume, it had been since 2018 at Florida State that he called plays in that role. I had one play calling tendency in particular I wanted to keep a close eye on with Bell taking over: first-down play calling.
One of the largest gripes with Sheridan by the fanbase was his propensity to run the ball on first down, no matter the game or time situation. Indiana’s poor offensive line play, and resulting poor run game, gave the Indiana offense consistent 2nd/3rd and long situations because of Sheridan’s persistence to predictably continue running on first down. While it was just one game, this seemed to change under Bell; Indiana passed on 74.19% (23 of 31) of its first down plays against Illinois.
There are certainly in-game variables that led to this percentage, as Indiana played much of the second half from behind and never established a rushing attack, but this may be a sign of what is to come under Bell. When the running game struggles, Bell showed no hesitation in running quick screen and slant passes to serve as a run game on early down plays. Connor Bazelak impressed in his first start with the Hoosiers, and an offensive coordinator will continue to run plays for guys that he can trust.
Zero
In 2021, the Indiana defense struggled to force takeaways like they had in their prior successful seasons. Tom Allen and new defensive coordinator Chad Wilt have put an emphasis on getting back to forcing takeaways this season, even switching back to playing more of a ball-hawking zone to allow its experienced defensive playmakers more freedom to roam. While the Indiana defense forced 4 takeaways against Illinois, the Hoosiers finished with zero points in the possessions immediately following the turnover. Indiana’s starting field position statistic does a good job of explaining this struggle:
While the defense forced two more takeaways than Illinois’, they often came deep in Illinois’ drives and rarely gave the Indiana offense a short field. The boom-or-bust offense, coupled with a bend-don’t-break takeaway-reliant defense, led to the zero points off of turnovers and ultimately the narrow margin of defeat.
45.8%
One of the biggest storylines for Indiana heading into the Illinois game was who would ultimately be lined up behind center when the offense took the field. Jack Tuttle, the incumbent, faced off against Connor Bazelak, the Missouri transfer, in a quarterback competition this fall camp. Bazelak went on to win the job, as we now know, but was this all that surprising?
This weekend we saw 131 FBS teams take the field. Of the 131 teams, 60 of the teams started a transfer quarterback (45.8% of teams). 40 of those 60 were transfers in the most recent recruiting cycle. So, you know those “open quarterback competitions” we hear about all offseason? Yeah, they might not be so open.