Hoosier Huddle's Big Ten Bowl Projections (11/23)

Written by: TJ Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)

The following Big Ten Bowl Projections are for the week of November 23, 2020. I am projecting out how I think the rest of the season will go and where each Big Ten team, including Indiana, will be placed. Please note, the Quick Lane Bowl (ties with Big Ten and ACC) will not be played this season.

Rose Bowl - #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Clemson (CFP Semifinal)

Last Week – Rose Bowl – OSU vs. Clemson

Admittedly, it looks strange to place Clemson into the semifinal after they lost to Notre Dame. The Tigers were without three defensive stalwarts and quarterback Trevor Lawrence. I think a full-strength Clemson team will knock-off the Fighting Irish in the ACC Championship Game and do so convincingly while Ohio State will head to the playoff as an unbeaten Big Ten champion. IU really tested Ohio State and may have exposed a major flaw in their pass defense. Still, it is hard to see anyone else on their schedule knocking them off.

Things get interesting from here: if the Big Ten champion is not selected for the College Football playoff, they automatically get a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl spot. After that, nothing is guaranteed but I do consider it possible the Big Ten puts Ohio State in the playoff and a second team in the New Year’s Six as an at-large. Notre Dame will either be in the playoff or in a New Year’s Six bowl. Cincinnati and BYU both have claims if they go unbeaten. The Big 12 champion will get a spot. The SEC is going to get a playoff spot plus at least one New Year’s Six spot (SEC East champion and then likely Texas A&M). The PAC-12 will have a champion that gets a spot. Will there be room for a Big Ten team? If they have someone with good wins and at most two losses (with one of them being to Ohio State)…I think so. Ultimately, I’m leaving the Big Ten out of the New Year’s Six. Which brings us to the remaining bowl affiliation.

Fiesta Bowl – Northwestern vs. USC

No projection for a Big Ten team

The Rose Bowl is a CFP semifinal so we’ll get our Big Ten versus PAC-12 matchup in the Fiesta Bowl instead. That’s not mandated by selection criteria but it would be a potentially intriguing option. Let’s say the Wildcats get stomped by Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game or drop a game before losing to the Buckeyes and end up at 7-2, does that open the door for Indiana if the Hoosiers were to run the table and go 8-1? I don’t think that is likely but if it did, does IU go to a New Year’s Six bowl? I think so.

Citrus Bowl – Indiana vs. Georgia – January 1 in Orlando, Florida

Last Week – Citrus Bowl – IU vs. Georgia

Indiana scared the daylights out of Ohio State and the performance earned a lot of respect nationally. The defeat does not drop Indiana down in the bowl pecking order but it does not move them up either. IU will need to finish, at worst, 7-2 to have a shot at moving up. I have Alabama in the College Football Playoff and Texas A&M and Florida in a New Year’s Six bowl. That leaves me selecting between Auburn and Georgia for the Citrus Bowl and I’ll give the nod to the Bulldogs.

Outback Bowl – Wisconsin vs. Auburn

Last Week – Outback Bowl – Northwestern vs. Auburn

Northwestern stunned Wisconsin so the Badgers slot into the Outback Bowl. Auburn looks like they are heading for a solid season after beating Tennessee.

Duke’s Mayo Bowl – Iowa vs. North Carolina

Last Week – Wisconsin vs. North Carolina

Formerly the Belk Bowl, this game is in Charlotte. Northwestern beating Wisconsin shifts multiple contests and Iowa is playing very well right now. This would be a fun game if it comes to pass.

Music City Bowl – Maryland vs. Arkansas

Last Week – Purdue vs. Arkansas

What to make of Maryland? They are 2-1 and have not played in two weeks. If the game against IU occurs this week, it will have a big impact on the projection for both teams. Purdue dropping down moves Maryland up.

Pinstripe Bowl – Purdue vs. Boston College

Last Week – Maryland vs. Boston College

Purdue got Rondale Moore back and the star receivers did not disappoint. Moore and Bell were both great but the Boilermakers still found a way to lose. This time, it was a close loss at Minnesota as they drop to 2-2. The schedule is easy but they just cannot put it together.

Guaranteed Rate/Cactus Bowl – Minnesota vs. Kansas State

Last Week – Iowa vs. Kansas State

Someone has to play this game and since there is no actual selection criteria to meet this year, why not Minnesota? They beat Purdue and Illinois and have a game against Nebraska remaining so they could finish with three or four wins. It’s a low bar to clear this season folks.