He's losing men.
Donald Trump’s Net Approval Among Men Slips—New Poll - Newsweek
Instead of picking a single poll, why do you not use RCP who aggregates and averages many polls?
The only things worse than Trump's approval ratings are those of the RNC (-16.3%) and the Dems, bringing up the rear (-17.3%).
Feel free to use the aggregate.
I don't, because some polls are better than others. The Focaldata/Financial Times polling, which is referenced in the article I cited, is widely regarded as non-partisan, reliable and reputable.
Also, much more important than raw numbers in polls are trends. The trendlines are bad for Trump.
History tells us that a sitting president's approval ratings are highly relevant as midterms approach. The sitting president's party almost always loses seats in the midterms, even under the best of circumstances. When the president's approval ratings are low, the losses are much greater.
Midterms largely serve as a referendum on the sitting president's performance.
In that case, if Trump doesn't lose the House bigly, then will you acknowledge the polling was off and not a good indicator for voters?
Polymarket says Dems have an 84% chance of taking the House, so that's a done deal. How many seats do they pick up? How do you define "bigly?" I predict a gain of 18+ seats.
Forget the polls, and whether or not they are off. If there's not an 18+ gain by the Dems, I'll acknowledge I was wrong.
The Senate is murkier, and the situation is now more muddled because of Maine. No predictions from me, at least not yet, on the Senate.
He's losing men.
Donald Trump’s Net Approval Among Men Slips—New Poll - Newsweek
Instead of picking a single poll, why do you not use RCP who aggregates and averages many polls?
The only things worse than Trump's approval ratings are those of the RNC (-16.3%) and the Dems, bringing up the rear (-17.3%).
Feel free to use the aggregate.
I don't, because some polls are better than others. The Focaldata/Financial Times polling, which is referenced in the article I cited, is widely regarded as non-partisan, reliable and reputable.
Also, much more important than raw numbers in polls are trends. The trendlines are bad for Trump.
History tells us that a sitting president's approval ratings are highly relevant as midterms approach. The sitting president's party almost always loses seats in the midterms, even under the best of circumstances. When the president's approval ratings are low, the losses are much greater.
Midterms largely serve as a referendum on the sitting president's performance.
In that case, if Trump doesn't lose the House bigly, then will you acknowledge the polling was off and not a good indicator for voters?
Polymarket says Dems have an 84% chance of taking the House, so that's a done deal. How many seats do they pick up? How do you define "bigly?" I predict a gain of 18+ seats.
Forget the polls, and whether or not they are off. If there's not an 18+ gain by the Dems, I'll acknowledge I was wrong.
The Senate is murkier, and the situation is now more muddled because of Maine. No predictions from me, at least not yet, on the Senate.
I think Democrats will be in the 220s in the House and end up at 48 or 49 in the Senate.
He's losing men.
Donald Trump’s Net Approval Among Men Slips—New Poll - Newsweek
Instead of picking a single poll, why do you not use RCP who aggregates and averages many polls?
The only things worse than Trump's approval ratings are those of the RNC (-16.3%) and the Dems, bringing up the rear (-17.3%).
Feel free to use the aggregate.
I don't, because some polls are better than others. The Focaldata/Financial Times polling, which is referenced in the article I cited, is widely regarded as non-partisan, reliable and reputable.
Also, much more important than raw numbers in polls are trends. The trendlines are bad for Trump.
History tells us that a sitting president's approval ratings are highly relevant as midterms approach. The sitting president's party almost always loses seats in the midterms, even under the best of circumstances. When the president's approval ratings are low, the losses are much greater.
Midterms largely serve as a referendum on the sitting president's performance.
I don't disagree that the trends are unfavorable, but I'm indicating that relying upon a single poll vs. multiple, of which RCP handicaps based on bias and accuracy, seems like a weaker way to make a point. I could easily argue that the Financial Times seems bias since it is the only poll with Democratic favorability under 10 pts and is wildly different than the six others, including Economist/YouGov and Pew Research.
He's completely out of touch and increasingly ineffective, and a large majority of Americans recognize that.
"Roughly two-thirds of Americans think that Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions and that his military decisions in Iran have hurt the US. Around three-quarters say the president is not in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives."
The fountains in DC sure are pretty, though.
Trump's approvals are dropping faster than his bottom-heavy diapers.
His overall approval rating in this CNN/SSRS poll is 34%. That ties his all-time low which was tallied at the end of his first term, right after J6.
His approval rating is even worse among Independents: 24%.
Meanwhile, he continues to be completely out of touch and addressing stuff that doesn't matter. He's now pitching a $22 billion renovation of IAD. The renovated airport will feature "the largest [parking] garage in the world!" said Trump.
"Read the polls, watch the economic indicators and talk to President Trump's inner circle in private and the verdict on his second term seems clear: Even some longtime insiders fear he's trapped by a war he shouldn't have waged, tariffs he shouldn't have levied, monuments he shouldn't be obsessed with.
"These three topics chew up much of Trump's time and attention. All three are widely unpopular in polls.
"Trump's approval cratered to an all-time low of 32% in a Quinnipiac poll last week. Even more damning: 68% of voters said he isn't focused enough on the problems most Americans face."
Republicans are turning on this clown.
Donald Trump's Net Approval Among Republicans Falls 8 Points in New Poll - Newsweek
Just to be clear: Trump is not doing really anything different this term compared to his first term. He lies just as frequently. He says weird, off the wall, dumb things just as much. He is just as much of a shallow prick who can never accept criticism as he was 8 years ago. He never accepts responsibility for anything bad that has happened and just blames someone / something else instead of trying to fix it.
The difference is, he inherited a thriving economy in 2017, so people were willing to put up with his attitude and lies. Things went crappy during Covid, but while Donald made mistakes, most reasonable people understand that Covid wasn't Trump's fault.
Things have turned crappy again, and this time, a good portion can be directly attributed to Trump's (/his administration's) policies. Trump and his cronies standing out front of the exploding fireworks store yelling "Nothing to see here!" isn't helping. People are getting tired of his Schtick. They see him and his family getting filthy rich while they are struggling, and instead of talking about ways to fix it, he is spouting off about vanity projects and how Iran has been on its knees, begging for a deal, for what? 4 months now? and yet the war continues.
I don't want this country to fail, and I don't want a socialist wave to rise up, but if the GOP continues this incompetence, the nation is going to way over-correct that way because they don't trust the current system anymore.
Just to be clear: Trump is not doing really anything different this term compared to his first term. He lies just as frequently. He says weird, off the wall, dumb things just as much. He is just as much of a shallow prick who can never accept criticism as he was 8 years ago. He never accepts responsibility for anything bad that has happened and just blames someone / something else instead of trying to fix it.
The difference is, he inherited a thriving economy in 2017, so people were willing to put up with his attitude and lies. Things went crappy during Covid, but while Donald made mistakes, most reasonable people understand that Covid wasn't Trump's fault.
Things have turned crappy again, and this time, a good portion can be directly attributed to Trump's (/his administration's) policies. Trump and his cronies standing out front of the exploding fireworks store yelling "Nothing to see here!" isn't helping. People are getting tired of his Schtick. They see him and his family getting filthy rich while they are struggling, and instead of talking about ways to fix it, he is spouting off about vanity projects and how Iran has been on its knees, begging for a deal, for what? 4 months now? and yet the war continues.
I don't want this country to fail, and I don't want a socialist wave to rise up, but if the GOP continues this incompetence, the nation is going to way over-correct that way because they don't trust the current system anymore.
I think there are 2 important things you are overlooking
1) He has made sure his administration in his 2nd term are made entirely of yes men. In his first term, many of his bad ideas were stalled or minimized by people that actually stood up to him or slow played him. That is why his first term had constant firings as Trump booted anyone that got in his way.
2) His revenge tour on anyone he felt wronged him is on overdrive during the 2nd term. It was much milder in his 1st term with his revenge on Obama for roasting him at the White House Correspondence Dinner in 2011 and the aforementioned revenge on his administration when they didn't break the law or break precedent for him.
I think there are 2 important things you are overlooking
1) He has made sure his administration in his 2nd term are made entirely of yes men. In his first term, many of his bad ideas were stalled or minimized by people that actually stood up to him or slow played him. That is why his first term had constant firings as Trump booted anyone that got in his way.
2) His revenge tour on anyone he felt wronged him is on overdrive during the 2nd term. It was much milder in his 1st term with his revenge on Obama for roasting him at the White House Correspondence Dinner in 2011 and the aforementioned revenge on his administration when they didn't break the law or break precedent for him.
Don't disagree with either of those. Just pointing out that Trump is the exact same person he was 8 years ago. His approval rating has tanked both terms, he just started at a higher level (because he inherited a better situation) the first time.
Just to be clear: Trump is not doing really anything different this term compared to his first term.
Trump is the exact same person he was 8 years ago. His approval rating has tanked both terms, he just started at a higher level (because he inherited a better situation) the first time.
@squeakyclean I couldn't disagree more.
With respect to your first point (he's not really DOING anything different this term compared to the first): DOGE, scores of longtime fed employees replaced by loyalists, his tariffs frenzy, the "no new wars" president starting a war, costly vanity projects, a Justice Department that has lost any semblance of independence led by an Attorney General who is literally Trump's personal lawyer, ICE out of control, Trump's brazen and rampant corruption. That's a short list off the top of my head on a very busy day. I could go on with more time.
Regarding the second point (he's the exact same person), he's not. The core personality traits haven't changed, but watch a clip from 10 years ago and compare it to today. He's lost his fastball and now often appears as a doddering old man.
Regarding his approval ratings, I don't have time to look at every major poll but a quick look at Gallup shows he started in 2017 at 45% approval and, in 2025, at 47% approval, so essentially the same, shitty launching points both terms.
And, yes, HH is correct that Trump had people like Kelly, Mattis, Barr and Pence to effectively push back in the first term. That's gone now.
@squeakyclean I couldn't disagree more.
With respect to your first point (he's not really DOING anything different this term compared to the first): DOGE, scores of longtime fed employees replaced by loyalists, his tariffs frenzy, the "no new wars" president starting a war, costly vanity projects, a Justice Department that has lost any semblance of independence led by an Attorney General who is literally Trump's personal lawyer, ICE out of control, Trump's brazen and rampant corruption. That's a short list off the top of my head on a very busy day. I could go on with more time.
Regarding the second point (he's the exact same person), he's not. The core personality traits haven't changed, but watch a clip from 10 years ago and compare it to today. He's lost his fastball and now often appears as a doddering old man.
Regarding his approval ratings, I don't have time to look at every major poll but a quick look at Gallup shows he started in 2017 at 45% approval and, in 2025, at 47% approval, so essentially the same, shitty launching points both terms.
And, yes, HH is correct that Trump had people like Kelly, Mattis, Barr and Pence to effectively push back in the first term. That's gone now.
I think you are forgetting just how many stupid / incompetent things happened his first term.
Government shutdown
Mexico Wall, Funding vs. effectiveness
Saying on live TV he trusted Putin more than his own intelligence services
The withdrawal of forces from Syria allowing Turkey to invade
Hatch Act violations
Ignoring subpoenas from Congress
Summer of Love response (National Guard / Church photo op)
Handling of the Khashoggi assassination
Firing Comey for not being loyal enough
Withholding money to Ukraine for the Hunter investigation and the resulting impeachment proceedings
Weekly flights to Mara Lago and other Trump properties on the tax-payers dime (547 visits in 1460 days of term)
Hurricane response to Puerto Rico
Manafort and Flynn
Declaring everything fake news from crowd sizes to fact checking about 2020 voter fraud issues
Failure to provide a healthcare plan
Letting slip classified info to Putin during their meeting
Some very questionable pardons
30,000+ false or misleading statements
Covid Response
January 6th escapades
His first term was a crapfest. The good economy just made things palatable to most everyday people. What I should have said was instead of "started at a higher level", was something along the lines of "his lies and incompetence were masked by the good economy and allowed him to maintain his approval rating at a higher level". Covid was sadly the wake-up call that this country needed to get rid of him.
I agree that he is getting worse with regards to his "fastball". That's just old age though.