https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1963945994111918259?s=46
Jobs come in below expectations. Overall a pretty shitty report. A 50 point cut is now on the table. Also, Trump needs to start thinking about cutting some checks with that new found tariff revenue if the economy slows. Tariffs are anti-growth, not inflationary and the FED is behind the curve again.
Going back a couple of years to 2023. Where was employment on the upswing?
1. Government
2. Healthcare
@spartans9312 yep. A best case scenario is the private sector is out pacing the public sector (comparatively to Biden) and job growth has slowed down because of deportations and lack of new illegals and etc. It's plausible, but I think it's more likely just a slow down because of tariffs being a large tax. If wage growth stays strong, though, I'll start changing my opinion.
@arthur-dent inflation is not a measurement of just one good or several. It's an aggregate measurement.
@spartans9312 yep. A best case scenario is the private sector is out pacing the public sector (comparatively to Biden) and job growth has slowed down because of deportations and lack of new illegals and etc. It's plausible, but I think it's more likely just a slow down because of tariffs being a large tax. If wage growth stays strong, though, I'll start changing my opinion.
The administration has decreased the number of government jobs voluntarily. The cutting back on some of the Medicaid dollars will cut into some of the healthcare jobs
@snarlcakes yes, and if several goods go up we have inflation. Corn goes into feed, corn oil, and a ton of snacks and food
A great example, if OPEC tomorrow decided to shut down oil production, what would happen to oil prices? What would that do to transportation of goods, electricity, cost of plastic?
@arthur-dent I would still have the same amount of money to consume my basket of goods and I would cut back in other areas and those prices would drop. In order for there to be inflation you have to have money creation from banks or the government. How is more money being created?
@snarlcakes man you have to get off of that. That’s not the only way. And you’re presupposing people would cut back. They cut savings. Borrow. Increase credit debt
@mcm666 that's how the stupid system works. People would eventually run out savings/credit and cut back. If we're sitting here in 6 months and inflation hasn't went up, can we then agree tariffs aren't inflationary?
@snarlcakes I am unsure how you’re catching heat for this. Friedman was saying as much in the 60’s and the decades have proved him right.
@snarlcakes you are locked into one and only one cause. High wage hikes cause inflation, back in the 90s the Fed watched that tightly. Shortages cause inflation. Iowa has a drought, corn and pork will shoot up. Tariffs cause inflation if companies pass on the cost. What do you call it if a company pays 30% and passes it to consumers?
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General increase in prices:Inflation is not about the price of a single product rising, but a widespread, ongoing rise in prices across many goods and services.
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Reduced purchasing power:When prices rise, your money doesn't go as far, meaning you can buy less with the same amount of money than you could before.
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Measured by price indexes:Economic authorities use price indexes, like the CPI, to quantify the extent of inflation by tracking the average change in prices over time.
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Impacts everyone:Inflation affects workers, businesses, lenders, and borrowers, as it influences the cost of living and the value of money.
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This occurs when consumer demand for goods and services outstrips the available supply, driving prices up.
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This type of inflation happens when the costs of producing goods and services (like labor or raw materials) increase, forcing businesses to raise their prices.
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Easy monetary policy:When a central bank allows too much money to circulate in the economy, it can fuel inflation by increasing the money supply too rapidly.
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Supply chain issues:Disruptions in supply chains can lead to shortages of goods, contributing to rising prices.
No they do not. As I have stated, just look at Trump's first 3 years: high wage growth, no inflation growth.
And yes, if every other economic input is static, tariffs will cause inflation. But they are not. Specifically, lower energy prices reduce input costs for business. Less regulation lowers input costs for businesses. Lower interest rates reduce input costs for businesses. Lower taxes reduce input costs for businesses.
