@arthur-dent I think the defense stipulates Trump sucks at selling the war, that Trump does things his own way and that we’re in deep dodo. The defense’s focus is on the premise we need to eliminate Iran’s ability to make nukes come hell or high water.
Your revenge question is ignored. I guess the defense’s premise there is, we’re in the right so Iran better surrender or we’ll kill ‘em all!!!
@bar-down we obliterated their program with Midnight Hammer. Hegseth said so to a congressional committee yesterday. Did they recoup a nuclear program from obliteration that quickly?
Which is my point, Hegseth cannot say we "obliterated" the program AND a nuke was imminent. It is a failure in messaging at a time they cannot have it.
@arthur-dent agreed on messaging. My point was larger. If they were/are wrong on the enrichment level that gave rise to doing this in the first place it’s like wmd etc. a major fck up is it not?
@bar-down we won't know for years, until people talk and Iranian records are found.
I personally think we did destroy the nuclear program with Midnight Hammer. But it is possible they have Intel otherwise. If so, we should stop pushing that narrative. The further out we are from Iran having a bomb, the less the attack makes sense from a bomb standpoint. So the less people will buy the validity.
We do not have to have the Strait open. Eventually, higher prices and the market will take care of the problem.
This is a fascinating point. Several of the Gulf countries are already circumventing that supply line. Other than that gulf and Hormuz, Iran is kind of off the beaten track. Other than their oil and any other natural resources, they’re relatively inconsequential.
If militarily Hormuz has always been a sticking point, problem solved. Surprisingly simple solution. Pity that it wasn’t planned for in advance. But that’s water over the dam.
I think Trump could even save face right now in terms of the elections by simply coming out and saying OK world, we’re moving forward. Hormuz is closed and we are going to circumvent it and get the world economy back to normal and Iran can play ball or be stuck in their hole for the foreseeable future.
Not sure about the logistics of all that but you gotta do what you gotta do. At least we wouldn’t need to drop any more bombs in this scenario. Just in time for the 60-dsy deadline also.
Iran is “winning”
Just in time for the 60-dsy deadline also
The 60 day deadline is phony. It only matters if Congress pushes it, and so far I see no indication Congress will ever schedule a vote.
The 60 day deadline is phony. It only matters if Congress pushes it, and so far I see no indication Congress will ever schedule a vote.
It is a Constitutionally specified requirement. There is the one-time 30 day extension that can be used (and I assume will be), but Democrats are going to push to have it voted on and force the Republicans to go on-record about it. It's one thing for the Republicans to shoot down the votes that have been put forward to limit Trump's ability during his constitutionally allowable grace period, but once that 90 day limit is up, it's going to be alot harder for Republicans to twist themselves into pretzel logic to avoid a declaration of war vote.
Trump can play the genius here and I’m all for it. Anything to end this war.
From the beginning, it has been publicly known that all military gaming showed the Strait of Hormuz to be the sticking point. Even Iran knew this and prepared for eventual war accordingly, keying their strategy on closing the Strait. I’m not privy to any of that analysis, but I assume the basic premise was to keep it open!
Let’s think out of the box. What if we close it?! First, can we? Well, we would have to bomb the living shit out of Iran and obliterate their Air Force and navy and decimate their missile supplies and so on. Then we blockade it with our ships.
Next, can we circumvent it? Well, evidently various countries are already actively working on that.
Fast forward to today and lo and behold, whether he planned it or not, Trump has carried out that exact plan. Now all he has to do is own it and we move forward. He’s the hero. He’s the genius.
@snarlcakes you miss my point. I am not debating if the attack was valid. I am saying the lack of public support is directly due to the administration not trying to win support at all. I keep comparing it with 43. Bush was not popular with Dems, you may not have been around the board but the term BDS was as frequent as TDS. Yet many Dems supported Iraq, including myself and Rockfish. Believe me, no one was more anti Bush than Rockfish.
Trump and his team did nothing to prepare us for this war. That is why the war is completely underwater in polls.
And we were unprepared, the missing anti drone protection and lack of minesweepers prove that.
I was responding to the notion that the U.S. needs to have the Strait open. I should have pulled just that part out when I responded to you.
The war has been going on for two months, I'm not concerned with how it was or wasn't sold anymore.
@snarlcakes selling it remains important. It doesn't take many Republicans, fearful of polls deciding to vote to cut funding.
Even if that doesn't happen, next January it 100% will.
Those are if the sale doesn't happen.
We do not have to have the Strait open. Eventually, higher prices and the market will take care of the problem.This is a fascinating point. Several of the Gulf countries are already circumventing that supply line. Other than that gulf and Hormuz, Iran is kind of off the beaten track. Other than their oil and any other natural resources, they’re relatively inconsequential.If militarily Hormuz has always been a sticking point, problem solved. Surprisingly simple solution. Pity that it wasn’t planned for in advance. But that’s water over the dam.
I think Trump could even save face right now in terms of the elections by simply coming out and saying OK world, we’re moving forward. Hormuz is closed and we are going to circumvent it and get the world economy back to normal and Iran can play ball or be stuck in their hole for the foreseeable future.
Not sure about the logistics of all that but you gotta do what you gotta do. At least we wouldn’t need to drop any more bombs in this scenario. Just in time for the 60-dsy deadline also.
In an ideal world yes, the other nations can eventually figure out a way to bypass the strait, but the logistics are massive
Absolutely, positively, it would cost more money. Shipping via an oil tanker / cargo ship is the most efficient way to do it. Pipelines / overland shipping routes are already set up to move product to the Persian Gulf. Everything within a 200 mile radius of the gulf that gets shipped internationally is set up to go there. This would be the equivalent of you telling all of the products that currently go out of Baltimore to instead be transported down to New Orleans instead.....permanently.
It would take a decade to set up the infrastructure and billions / trillions of dollars. Money that would be passed on to all consumers.
@arthur-dent you need to make your case against the war itself.
Don’t make a case that gas prices have gone up, don’t make a case that Trump didn’t “sell” the war well enough domestically. Don’t talk about the free flow of shipping.
Why is it a bad idea to attempt to end the Iranian nuclear program?
You go to war, prices go up, that is the nature of things. Are we children here?
Has this thread turned into a gas price ticker?
How spoiled are Americans?
If Iran is a legitimate lasting threat to global security, then the question isn’t how much do oil or fertilizer prices go up, but how do we destroy and replace that regime most efficiently.
If attacking Iran is the right thing to do, then it’s the right thing to do. There’s no purpose in bitching about energy prices or political polls. I wish opponents of the war wouldn’t cite such things.
Instead, make your case for how the Iranian regime was trustworthy and non-violent. And loved America.
We aren't destroying and replacing anything.
Garbage. 2/3 of the drones and missile and launchers are either destroyed or buried under rubble.
If they poke their head up, a satellite sees them and we kill them.
Trump doesn’t want Thomas Jefferson, he wants an Islamist thug who cares about their own life enough to be reasoned with and controlled.
I'm not talking about destroying military assets. Your post was "destroying and replacing the regime". That isn't happening, regardless what Trump wants. And we have stopped all air attacks so they can pop their heads up wherever they want.
Looks like that ideal world is already fast approaching. The numbers are large, but not as large as you were suggesting. I think this is a wake up call that the world no longer wants to depend on that tiny little pathway and it will be phased out as a critical choke point.