"Grok, before yesterday how many times had the winner of the 1st round of Brazilian Presidential elections lost the runoff?"
Zero times.
Before the recent election, every single runoff in Brazilian presidential election history was won by the candidate who had placed first in the initial round of voting.
How many elections have they even had since the end of the military junta? Not sure it's a very large sample size.
@all4you it's actually unusual but not unprecedented. In fact, the previous time it happened was in 2022. The current climate in Brazil combined with the surprisingly large lead Bolsonaro has after the first round could easily explain the increased turnout.
@all4you it's actually unusual but not unprecedented. In fact, the previous time it happened was in 2022. The current climate in Brazil combined with the surprisingly large lead Bolsonaro has after the first round could easily explain the increased turnout.
Perhaps the betting and polling got it wildly wrong, given the sizable vote difference. But, requests to change were not as you suggest:
___
On October 25, 2026, during Brazil’s presidential runoff between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), STF Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered voting extended nationwide from the normal 17:00 close to 19:00 Brasília time. The decision came very late—Lula’s campaign request reached the court around 16:32, and the order issued near or after the original close, after some counting had already begun. This forced a pause in tabulation and created operational confusion (some machines already closed; later clarification limited the extension to still-open stations)
Key facts
- Primary trigger: Lula’s campaign requested the extension, citing bus/public transport shortages in places like Salvador, Feira de Santana, and Lauro de Freitas (Bahia) and other areas. Flávio Bolsonaro’s side also requested limited extensions in certain municipalities affected by rain, flooding, and power issues (parts of São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul). Zanin expanded it nationwide rather than restricting it to the requested localities.
- Who decided it: Zanin, a Supreme Court justice appointed by Lula in 2023. He was Lula’s personal lawyer for years, defended him in the Lava Jato cases, helped overturn convictions that had barred Lula from running, and was paid by the PT/Lula campaign for legal services. Conflict-of-interest concerns were raised at the time of his appointment and have been repeated now.
Lula’s campaign requested the extension, citing bus/public transport shortages in places like Salvador, Feira de Santana, and Lauro de Freitas (Bahia) and other areas. Flávio Bolsonaro’s side also requested limited extensions in certain municipalities affected by rain, flooding, and power issues (parts of São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul). Zanin expanded it nationwide rather than restricting it to the requested localities.
What are you talking about? That's exactly what I described.
@all4you it's actually unusual but not unprecedented. In fact, the previous time it happened was in 2022. The current climate in Brazil combined with the surprisingly large lead Bolsonaro has after the first round could easily explain the increased turnout.
Bruh, too much for me to think about. My previous thought was as deep as I am willing to go. I am here now...
Jump in, the water's fine heh
A good friend will bail you out of jail, but your best friend will be sitting next to you in the cell saying "that was f***ing awesome"
What are you talking about? That's exactly what I described.
You didn't reference the timing, and you're not being accurate about which campaign actively pushed for the extension, the Supreme Court circumstances, or the ultimate decision. You also didn't acknowledge that the SC justice who made the call was also Lula's personal attorney! Talk about a shark.
On October 25, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered a nationwide, two-hour extension just three minutes before the scheduled 5 p.m. closing time. The order came after Lula's campaign raised concerns about public transportation disruptions, including in areas favorable to Lula.
Bolsonaro only requested changes in five states, likely favorable to him.
And the betting markets reacted to the extension:
The reported Polymarket price history shows the following approximate sequence:
| Stage | Bolsonaro's implied chance of winning |
|---|---|
| Election morning | 79–80% |
| Before the scheduled closing time | Approximately 76–82% |
| Around the extension announcement | Fell toward 65–66% |
| Around the extended closing time | Approximately 61% |
| As more election results became available | Fell sharply |
| Later that evening | Approached zero |
Given the magnitude of vote differential, I find it unlikely that the extension changed the outcome anyway. But, it's quite surprising that the betting markets were so wrong (1 in 5 isn't insurmountable) not just in terms of who won, but by how wide of a margin of victory it ended up being. You would expect an upset to be much closer. It should give the GOP some hope to point towards in the states I previously called out in states where polling is close but better markets are more favorable to the Dems.
They're already trying to seize his passport and throw him in prison when he's committed no crime but they would absolutely never cheat. Totally legit elections.
https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2114699737236455759
@all4you it's actually unusual but not unprecedented. In fact, the previous time it happened was in 2022. The current climate in Brazil combined with the surprisingly large lead Bolsonaro has after the first round could easily explain the increased turnout.
Bruh, too much for me to think about. My previous thought was as deep as I am willing to go. I am here now...
Jump in, the water's fine heh
I want to be Keith
They're already trying to seize his passport and throw him in prison when he's committed no crime but they would absolutely never cheat. Totally legit elections.
Duda Salabert...sometimes the jokes write themselves....
A good friend will bail you out of jail, but your best friend will be sitting next to you in the cell saying "that was f***ing awesome"
@jdb both campaigns asked for extensions and the court made them nationwide rather than grant only localized extensions. Those were the relevant facts I stated because they contradicted the narrative dbm posted. I wasn't writing a comprehensive essay. Just responding to a particular Twitter idiot.