11-9 we'd probably get in. 11-9 with a BTT win seems like a lock.
We won't get to 11-9, but I still am choosing to hope.
isn't that loss a Q3 loss?
We can still very much get in but the MSU game is now an absolute must win and if we can't beat NW how can we beat MSU? The bubble likely burst last night. Not good.
isn't that loss a Q3 loss?
For the moment, no. NW's win last night jumped them up to 69 in the NET (previously 79), so it is currently a Q2 loss.
NW has three games left (Oregon, Purdue, @ MN). If they win the Oregon game but lose the other two, it's going to be close whether they end up above or below that 75 level cut-off.
Its possible, but who cares unless they beat MSU. They've dug a hole they need to get out of immediately next game or its pointless to even keep speculating.
The thing is, the teams next to IU on the bubble or behind them are also losing games and not doing a ton. Several of their resumes are worse. Thats just how weak this bubble is. I've followed a few bracketologists discussing wanting to drop IU out after last night but then struggling to justify moving enough teams in front of them when looking at the full picture.
11-9 in the B1G with another win in the conference tournament equals 40% chance?
🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
Currently 40th in NET. Winning out would add 1 quad 1 win, but that would still mean 3-10 against Quad 1 teams (and Wisconsin is borderline @ 32 right now, there's a chance that they fall below 35 and that win drops to a Quad 2). As mentioned above, there's a good chance the NW loss is also a Quad 3 loss at end of season.
When it gets down to the last few teams being selected, they are going to have to look at all metrics closely. The one really bad metric here is the road record.
OSU has @Iowa, Purdue, @PSU, and IU left on their schedule. Under this scenario with IU winning that game, it's distinctly possible that OSU goes 1-3 in that stretch and would drop well below IU. So even if IU wins, it wont move the needle much. OSU is currently ranked 35th, but going 1-3 in that stretch would probably drop them down to 45th+.
Meaning that IU would have exactly 1 win against a top 40 team on the road (UCLA, currently sitting at 39th). Teams like Texas A&M, UCF, TCU, and Missouri are lower in the NET, but will have a better Quad 1 record (4+ wins already) and several have a better road win. When you have to pick one team out of a group of three or four, little things like that are going to stand out.
The odds might be a little higher than 40% but there is alot of variability still. MSU has @PU, @IU, Rut, @ Mich. They could conceivably go 1-3 in that stretch and that IU victory loses a bit of shine and doesn't quite offset the NW loss.
While a BTT victory "helps", as of this moment, IU likely finishes as the 9 seed, meaning their BTT game will be against the #16 / #17 team (Rutgers / Oregon, both 100+ teams). That won't help the resume much.
11-9 might get them in but the difference between 11-9 and 10-10 to me will not be the difference between success and failure as its one game. What I will look for is will the NIL be upgraded enough to get a good team or not? If not I do not see this really going anywhere because I don't think he is that great of a coach. He is an average probably middle of the big ten type of coach.
11-9 in the B1G with another win in the conference tournament equals 40% chance?
🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡
Currently 40th in NET. Winning out would add 1 quad 1 win, but that would still mean 3-10 against Quad 1 teams (and Wisconsin is borderline @ 32 right now, there's a chance that they fall below 35 and that win drops to a Quad 2). As mentioned above, there's a good chance the NW loss is also a Quad 3 loss at end of season.
When it gets down to the last few teams being selected, they are going to have to look at all metrics closely. The one really bad metric here is the road record.
OSU has @Iowa, Purdue, @PSU, and IU left on their schedule. Under this scenario with IU winning that game, it's distinctly possible that OSU goes 1-3 in that stretch and would drop well below IU. So even if IU wins, it wont move the needle much. OSU is currently ranked 35th, but going 1-3 in that stretch would probably drop them down to 45th+.
Meaning that IU would have exactly 1 win against a top 40 team on the road (UCLA, currently sitting at 39th). Teams like Texas A&M, UCF, TCU, and Missouri are lower in the NET, but will have a better Quad 1 record (4+ wins already) and several have a better road win. When you have to pick one team out of a group of three or four, little things like that are going to stand out.
The odds might be a little higher than 40% but there is alot of variability still. MSU has @PU, @IU, Rut, @ Mich. They could conceivably go 1-3 in that stretch and that IU victory loses a bit of shine and doesn't quite offset the NW loss.
While a BTT victory "helps", as of this moment, IU likely finishes as the 9 seed, meaning their BTT game will be against the #16 / #17 team (Rutgers / Oregon, both 100+ teams). That won't help the resume much.
MSU will be Q1 regardless, so little shine will come off that. Wisky is more likely to be Q1 than not at the end. The thing that all B1G teams have in common is SoS is steadily increasing every game and their metrics get bumped. You can look historically at the NETs for the conference come SS and the conference is pretty top-heavy once the dust settles.
That BIGT game is also neutral and most likely a Q2, so it definitely helps.
Of the teams you mention, several of their metrics are dramatically worse than IU. High 40s or even 50s in NET/KP/TR. Now if IU continues to fall with losses it won't matter, but if they stay at 40 or get back into the 30s thats a significant gap. You're not putting all of those teams above them. Those guys do have a couple more Q1s but they all have more Q2 or worse losses. TCU has a Q4 loss as well.
IUs SoS is in the low 30s and will be in the 20s by the end. Way higher than that crop (some are in the 60s).
IUs WAB is also better than all but UCF (and quite better than a couple of them).
None of these resumes are outstanding, but IU doesn't have to do a crazy amount to stay above those kind of teams (at least most of them).
It's an incredibly weak bubble.
Yeah, but currently Last 4 in, and that is without a single bid steal.
I know it's all about metrics today but I still don't think at team that ends up under 0.500 in their conference deserves a tournament spot. That shows that against your peer teams, you aren't very good. I'll be happy if we get in, but not expecting us to get very far if we do. We just have not shown that we can play at our best consistently.
I know it's all about metrics today but I still don't think at team that ends up under 0.500 in their conference deserves a tournament spot. That shows that against your peer teams, you aren't very good. I'll be happy if we get in, but not expecting us to get very far if we do. We just have not shown that we can play at our best consistently.
After what happened last night I have a hard time seeing them finish any better than 10-10. Minnesota is actually pretty good they have just had tons of injuries all year. Michigan State I right now do not see that as a win unless they shoot the lights out. In theory we could probably get in as like an 11 seed but we will not win more than one game max imo.
MSU will be Q1 regardless, so little shine will come off that. Wisky is more likely to be Q1 than not at the end. The thing that all B1G teams have in common is SoS is steadily increasing every game and their metrics get bumped. You can look historically at the NETs for the conference come SS and the conference is pretty top-heavy once the dust settles.
That BIGT game is also neutral and most likely a Q2, so it definitely helps.
Of the teams you mention, several of their metrics are dramatically worse than IU. High 40s or even 50s in NET/KP/TR. Now if IU continues to fall with losses it won't matter, but if they stay at 40 or get back into the 30s thats a significant gap. You're not putting all of those teams above them. Those guys do have a couple more Q1s but they all have more Q2 or worse losses. TCU has a Q4 loss as well.
IUs SoS is in the low 30s and will be in the 20s by the end. Way higher than that crop (some are in the 60s).
I double checked. The home wins is for top 30 to be Q1, so the Wisky win is currently not a Q1 (UCLA and PU are the two current Q1's). Wisky is 32 right now. Gonna be close because they have three road games left (@OR, @Wash, @PU). If they drop one of those west coast games and the Purdue game, then they will definitely not jump to Q1.
The BTT game, if IU gets the 9 seed, will be against a #16 / #17 sub-100 team. That will be Q3 on a neutral court.
Not sure IU's SOS will increase to the 20's. The SOS is an aggregate of the Noncon and conference. The past few years IU's SOS ended in the 20's, but that was with a 100 - 250 Non-con schedule. The year that they had a sub-300 non-con ('22) like this year, they ended at 38 (Kenpom). This also assumes that those other teams mentioned don't improve their schedules and/or get a big win.
Again, lots of variability left.
After what happened last night I have a hard time seeing them finish any better than 10-10.
After what happened last night I would not be surprised if they don't win another game. They probably will, because (almost randomly) they sometimes play well, but I would not be surprised.
After what happened last night I have a hard time seeing them finish any better than 10-10.
After what happened last night I would not be surprised if they don't win another game. They probably will, because (almost randomly) they sometimes play well, but I would not be surprised.
Yeah I mean 10-10 is probably best case imo. I only saw highlights from last night so I cannot really comment on the meltdown but to beat MS they will basically probably have to play an almost perfect game. Minnesota even without their best player still only lost by 10 at Michigan so that will not be easy either.
I'll make an early MSU prediction: Tight at half. Izzo makes adjustments, DD looks like a lost puppy, and IU loses by 17.
Opponent adjustments are DD's Kryptonite.