@gerdis We'll see what the list of Natty winners looks like 20 years from now. You could be right. But for a tournament that has what?, upper 300s to 400 teams that are eligible to win any given year... the list of schools that have ever won one is still pretty small. And its not like its expanded all that much in recent years. BYU could be an interesting case study in this... they have a solid coach, but they openly went and bought a roster that should compete for a Final Four. They took UConn to the brink in their only loss. And destroyed Wisconsin. I suspect one of the blue bloods will end up winning the title though, maybe beating them on the way. Arizona, Duke, UConn, Michigan isn't really a blue blood, but they've won a title, Florida is still very much in the mix... the natty winner will probably come from that list this year.
I think the premise of what you said is right. But if winning an actual National Championship is an important factor... I still think there are probably only 15-20 programs that would give a coach that realistic opportunity.
@gerdis We'll see what the list of Natty winners looks like 20 years from now. You could be right. But for a tournament that has what?, upper 300s to 400 teams that are eligible to win any given year... the list of schools that have ever won one is still pretty small. And its not like its expanded all that much in recent years. BYU could be an interesting case study in this... they have a solid coach, but they openly went and bought a roster that should compete for a Final Four. They took UConn to the brink in their only loss. And destroyed Wisconsin. I suspect one of the blue bloods will end up winning the title though, maybe beating them on the way. Arizona, Duke, UConn, Michigan isn't really a blue blood, but they've won a title, Florida is still very much in the mix... the natty winner will probably come from that list this year.
I think the premise of what you said is right. But if winning an actual National Championship is an important factor... I still think there are probably only 15-20 programs that would give a coach that realistic opportunity.
and right not we aren't one of them and that pisses me off
@hoosiers94 me too. But Hurley and Golden give me a little bit of hope. Neither of them were all that special before they combined their coaching abilities with Blue Blood resources. And even for them, it took a couple years for their programs to fully take root. Today is a very different time, and dynamic than when Hurley started at UConn, obviously. And even very different from when Golden started at Florida a few years ago. But the concept of building your culture, the program, how you want versus chasing talent isn't an abnormal approach to building a champion.
Year 1, build a roster that allows you to play your desired style, as effectively as possible. Don't chase talent that doesn't fit how you want to succeed.
Year 2, return a handful of players from Team 1, fill around them with more strategic, elite level players via portal, late HS, foreign pools. Incremental success.
Year 3, return a little larger chunk of guys, some of them now being in program for multiple years, surround with strategic elite level players... primed to compete nationally at this point.
If it happens sooner than that, great. Its fairly rare that it has happened sooner than that for others, but its not unprecedented. You can talk about Kelsey having to rebuild a dumpster fire versus what CDD inherited...but in the end, they BOTH had to rebuild essentially the entire roster, from scratch. Kelsey finished with an 8 Seed, he established their style, and he brought in some impactful guys to take the next steps forward.
This isn't an unreasonable path... its certainly not impossible to cram all of these things in to one offseason, and to compete right away, or maybe 1 year quicker than this...Our football program is proof it can happen. Its pretty rare to be making firing decisions if it doesn't happen 1/3 of the way in to a coach's first season, in my opinion.
@hoosiers94 and if those guys say no? We can't force them to come. I don't doubt that Dolson wants to win but he's not a mobster that can kidnap a top name if they refuse. If you think they didn't back channel a ton of guys last time then I don't know what to tell you.
Cig is great but he also was not a big name nor was he any gaurantee of high level success, definitely not to the degree we've seen. He's not pertinent to this conversation because he is a unicorn and was not a big name nor at a big school. He was a relatively unknown guy at a lower level program.
If we shoot for the stars and miss, then what? We're back to unproven up-and-comers but with the new caveat that they only get 1 year to turn everything around. You think many will jump at that when they can just wait for another job to open?
You're just not being realistic here. Its not about desire or intent to win. You should know I don't sit with poor results for long. I wanted Archie jettisoned well before he was and definitely wanted Woodson gone before he was finally ran off.
I'd love a sure thing, but in this new era I don't think thats very likely and firing coaches after 1 season will make it harder, not easier.
Every coaching search we are told we could not get any big names because nobody wants to come here. Does anyone actually have any proof guys like Drew, Pearl, Stevens, Beard, May, etc were ever even offered the job? I find it hard to believe Beard would have turned it down I don't think they even looked at him. And there is zero chance Mike Woodson was the best they could have done I think he was told to hire him by quinn. I doubt they even offered anyone else.
So you're basically insinuating that Dolson is the dumbest man alive. That he didn't even call any of the big dogs or their agent to kick the tires and see if there was any interest. He just went out any hired DeVries and didn't call anyone else. Is that what you're saying? I can guarantee you that didn't happen.
Specific potential, and realistic path for CDD... in reference to my own post a few minutes ago...
Offseason/Season 1, its pretty obvious that DeVries valued shooting and passing abilities and willingness with his first roster. And we've seen that focus played out, so far, at various times in our preseason and first 11 games. The question marks, as have been talked about ad nauseum, are the lack of physicality in the post, and then this groups ability or willingness to play what appears to be his style, consistently. HS recruiting is also a question mark, as he's only landed 2 recruits for 2026 and 1 for 2027, and none of those answer the physicality void. But he'll have that opportunity this spring via the portal, foreigners, and late HS pools of players. Team finishes around .500 in the conference, bubble team, maybe makes a play in game?
Offseason 2/Season 2... Just guesses based off current PT and roles... Sisley, Dorn, Ritsic, Harris, Amisovic return. Moody and Karvala come in. Sisley, Dorn, Ritsic and maybe 1 of the freshmen are legit, good P4 rotational guys... the rest can become that, but its not as much of a given as the ones I listed. DeVries needs to bring in 6 guys, via the portal, instead of 11-12. Returning guys are always much cheaper, so he has a greater ability to get the more expensive bigs we'll need, and maybe an elite wing/guard. He gets 1 more freshman, and 4-5 main rotation level players, including a couple physical bigs. The team is a little more physical, a little more athletic, a little less reliant on ball dominant players like Conerway, Wilkerson, and DeVries, so there's a little more buy in to the movement based offense. Team wins 13 regular season B10 games, wins a game or two in the NCAA tournament.
Offseason 3/Season 3... Sisley, Ritsic, Harris, Moody, Karvala, Spring Freshman, a couple of the portal guys that have multiple years of eligibility left, Branham, and then a couple more 2027 guys... higher rated guys than Moody and Karvala were... are in the fold entering in to portal season. So CDD really only needs 3-4 guys, and has quite a lot of returning experience and talent. So he can be more selective, use the renewed excitement of year 2, and go get legit studs to fill whatever needs we might have. We go in to season 3 with many rotation guys having played for CDD for multiple years, size, athleticism, skill, probably some NBA talent... IU competes for B10 title, and FF.
This path is all still very reasonable. And I'd say if we fall short of the .500 and NCAA prediction I made for this year, that it really doesn't set back the Year 2 and 3 projections all that much. Maybe a little bit. But as long as the mood and tenor of the program is solid, and we still have competitive resources, and he starts returning impactful chunks of his roster... then I think CDD's Indiana program will do nothing but improve. Nothing in his history says he'll do anything but win consistently.
so what's your response if "offseason 1 and season 1" is obvious abject failure
I mean you've laid out the glamorous plan and you're "assuming" alls well that ends well. But it's quite obvious his judge for talent was a failure. It thus far obvious there are a lot of inconsistencies and issues with this team. Effort, execution, poor decision making. Etc. if I'm hired for this job I'm not allowing that shit to happen day 1. That lack of discipline and the inability to adjust in game are immediately controllable by the coach. Laying down excuses for him is the same ole same ole. If I hear "this is the first time through this together " I'm going to barf. That's an excuse. You're not prepared.. RMK .. rolling over due to the lack of preparation of this outfit. Everyone has the will to win, not everyone has the will to prepare to win
You also don't know that the retuning guys will all be cheaper. That may have been what has happened previous and may be what happens but we don't know that. Someone could Sisley double what we doz and if you think just because he's not in the portal that folks won't try to or inquire. That's also naive. That's old school gentleman rules
@hoosiers94 Didn't I cover that? I guess "abject failure" is subjective. But we're already more than half way through Offseason 1/Season 1, and I don't think anyone could possibly categorize it as an "abject failure". We'll see where we go from here. But up until now, while obviously not "resounding success", or maybe even not "marginal success"... there have been enough good things happen, that its a decent start to his IU tenure. Could have been a lot better, could have been a lot worse. At this point though, as long as guys like Sisley, Dorn, Harris, Ritsic decide to return, and the 26' incoming frosh stick... he's starting off in A LOT better spot heading in to the portal/spring HS/foreigner recruiting season. And those 6 or so guys, obviously, are less expensive than what he'd have to pay impactful guys from the portal. If you don't understand that concept, and that DeVries will likely have a greater ability to target a few higher end guys this spring... then its probably not worth discussing with you.
@hoosiers94 Its all relative. I can't fathom IU not remaining "competitive" with most of the other top programs, NIL wise. If we miss the NCAAs, obviously, that puts a governor on how much NIL money we'll have at our disposal. But CDD is going to have top..."10%" NIL funds. I very, very, very strongly think NIL numbers are all shoot from the hip, swagged...and don't end up being even remotely accurate when it all shakes out. They're elastic anyways, as I've pointed out numerous times. Kentucky, as an example, isn't ALWAYS going to spend 20 million, or whatever their end number for this years team is. It'll vary year over year. CDD will have top 3,4,5 NIL funds in the B10, I'm sure. And in the big scheme of things, Sisley, Dorn, Harris, Ritsic... they'll be cheaper, relative to going to get similar guys in the portal. I guess if all of them put their name in the portal, to test the waters, then maybe your theory might end up holding a little more water. But nearly always, players that put their names in the portal, end up leaving. Players that come back, never put their name in the portal. They might get some back channel offers, and CDD, Dolson and the players figure somethings out. But without the actual legit competition entering the portal provides, their values won't jump nearly as much... obviously.
@hoosiers94 Didn't I cover that? I guess "abject failure" is subjective. But we're already more than half way through Offseason 1/Season 1, and I don't think anyone could possibly categorize it as an "abject failure". We'll see where we go from here. But up until now, while obviously not "resounding success", or maybe even not "marginal success"... there have been enough good things happen, that its a decent start to his IU tenure. Could have been a lot better, could have been a lot worse. At this point though, as long as guys like Sisley, Dorn, Harris, Ritsic decide to return, and the 26' incoming frosh stick... he's starting off in A LOT better spot heading in to the portal/spring HS/foreigner recruiting season. And those 6 or so guys, obviously, are less expensive than what he'd have to pay impactful guys from the portal. If you don't understand that concept, and that DeVries will likely have a greater ability to target a few higher end guys this spring... then its probably not worth discussing with you.
that's a very righteous response. I appreciate your input. You have a lot to say, but you're not anymore informed or knowledgeable or on target than any of us. Unless you're a mole for Dolson, which I doubt. So in order for us to have any sort of dialogue which is what this forum is ... you might want to drop the know-it-all approach. Seriously appreciate the conversation but again you're not Hal 9000. All any of us render here is purely opinion and conjecture. Very rarely is it fact based. I'd love to continue to banter back and forth with you , I find it entertaining and interesting until those types of comments spring up. Perhaps we all do that at times. We obviously are on the "agree to disagree " spectrum but I'm ok with that. Are you?
@hoosiers94 Its all relative. I can't fathom IU not remaining "competitive" with most of the other top programs, NIL wise. If we miss the NCAAs, obviously, that puts a governor on how much NIL money we'll have at our disposal. But CDD is going to have top..."10%" NIL funds. I very, very, very strongly think NIL numbers are all shoot from the hip, swagged...and don't end up being even remotely accurate when it all shakes out. They're elastic anyways, as I've pointed out numerous times. Kentucky, as an example, isn't ALWAYS going to spend 20 million, or whatever their end number for this years team is. It'll vary year over year. CDD will have top 3,4,5 NIL funds in the B10, I'm sure. And in the big scheme of things, Sisley, Dorn, Harris, Ritsic... they'll be cheaper, relative to going to get similar guys in the portal. I guess if all of them put their name in the portal, to test the waters, then maybe your theory might end up holding a little more water. But nearly always, players that put their names in the portal, end up leaving. Players that come back, never put their name in the portal. They might get some back channel offers, and CDD, Dolson and the players figure somethings out. But without the actual legit competition entering the portal provides, their values won't jump nearly as much... obviously.
you're banking your comments on the odds I can appreciate that. What has to be considered is the human nature and the unpredictability of this new world we are in as far as college athletics is concerned. And with 18-23 years olds ...
if course NIL dollars will fluctuate. It's essentially fundraising.. it based on the mood of the donors which can widely be based on the emotion tied to the success of said teams or their connection to the school or a specific player or coach. I'm interested to see how the income sharing process plays out as well. How does that evolve? The NCAA has zero control of this thus far ... I don't think they ever will and so how does that change the climate. So to me , I think that changes the dynamic of relations between players , coaches and universities. And how does the academic portion tie in to all of this. The old gentleman's agreements and handshakes will continue to erode and quickly I think. The more zeroes on all of this the more cutthroat it becomes. And hence is why I don't see a coach being fired after one year being something that couldn't happen. Will it here perhaps and likely not , but making those decisions based on virtue could ultimately damage the department in ways that are immeasurable
@hoosiers94 Sure thing! Pretty comfortable that I'm presenting a fairly reasoned, balanced perspective... terms like "abject failure", for the current team and state of the program... don't seem all that reasoned or balanced. Further... "its quite obvious his judgement of talent was a failure"... again, not overly reasoned, or balanced. Flawed, sure! Bailey isn't panning out at the moment, as an example of a potential failure. But Wilkerson, Conerway, Alexis... all playing pretty well. Further... CDD has shown an ability to adjust in game... Louisville as a prime example of that. Pretty much all of the preseason games. Not ALL games have they improved and finished well... but he's shown an ability to turn things around within games, without question.
Agree wholeheartedly on the consistency issues, and the preparation issues coming in to games. And I've posted about that numerous times. But the absolutism approach that its all done, he's been a failure... that's what I'm pushing back against. And the paths for years 2 and 3, aren't pie in the sky, utopia levels of optimism. Retain 80% of your guys that can come back, use IU's resources to improve the roster incrementally, lean on the improving levels of talent and experience... I didn't throw out scenarios where this team figures things out, plays like Marquette/KState/PSU IU team way more often than not, makes the NCAA comfortably, and wins a game or two...then parlays that in to landing a "Michigan-esque" like portal class for year 2, and then he's off and running. The reason I didn't, I think from what I've seen, that's less likely than the "abject failure" finish. But neither of them are overly realistic.
Literally everything in his history says the realistic results will be incremental improvements.
@hoosiers94 Sure thing! Pretty comfortable that I'm presenting a fairly reasoned, balanced perspective... terms like "abject failure", for the current team and state of the program... don't seem all that reasoned or balanced. Further... "its quite obvious his judgement of talent was a failure"... again, not overly reasoned, or balanced. Flawed, sure! Bailey isn't panning out at the moment, as an example of a potential failure. But Wilkerson, Conerway, Alexis... all playing pretty well. Further... CDD has shown an ability to adjust in game... Louisville as a prime example of that. Pretty much all of the preseason games. Not ALL games have they improved and finished well... but he's shown an ability to turn things around within games, without question.
Agree wholeheartedly on the consistency issues, and the preparation issues coming in to games. And I've posted about that numerous times. But the absolutism approach that its all done, he's been a failure... that's what I'm pushing back against. And the paths for years 2 and 3, aren't pie in the sky, utopia levels of optimism. Retain 80% of your guys that can come back, use IU's resources to improve the roster incrementally, lean on the improving levels of talent and experience... I didn't throw out scenarios where this team figures things out, plays like Marquette/KState/PSU IU team way more often than not, makes the NCAA comfortably, and wins a game or two...then parlays that in to landing a "Michigan-esque" like portal class for year 2, and then he's off and running. The reason I didn't, I think from what I've seen, that's less likely than the "abject failure" finish. But neither of them are overly realistic.
Literally everything in his history says the realistic results will be incremental improvements.
You certainly see something I don't. You may be right , you may be wrong. Is the season at this point an abject failure, no , but I see it going that way if behaviors are not reversed STAT. I do not see the talent level you see. Connerway has quickness , he can penetrate, and has had moments against inferior teams but until I see him come out consisting against higher level opponents I'm not sold, but he has some potential to do that.
We will severely agree to disagree on Bailey. He was a miss to me. Completely , especially at 1m.
DD didn't land Sisley so he doesn't get credit for that.
Miles isn't contributing much. Verdict out in Dorn, Ristic, Drake and obviously Harris.
Enright :: he hustles and is a decent defender but he's a liability on offense and with a team that's short on offense hard to keep him on the floor. But we have no choice.
Wilkerson was a good get, wasn't hard to define his worth , everyone wanted him. But he has limitations as well. TD isn't a number 1. He's a 2/3 not an alpha player on a Big 10 team but he's our alpha along with Wilkerson who's also not a 1 ..
so what I see is not a lot of success coming this year and because he's showed a misinterpreted calculation of talent for this years roster how can we be assured he will get it right next year I agree with your points about "building a program " we cannot solely rely on the portal that limits us because there is only what's in the portal so how can we build a roster with only what's there So that's a little bit of a plus to DD and his evaluation ability
but those are just my opinions.
@hoosiers94 fair. I have plenty of concerns, myself. But lots of season left. And every program has the chance and opportunity to improve as the year wears on. I think a team and program in CDD and IU's situation, might have even more conditions in place, that give them the chance to improve as the year wears on. We shall see how it goes. And you're right, he/they better figure some things out pretty quickly. January is coming, and a big part of that schedule is BRUTAL.
Literally everything in his history says the realistic results will be incremental improvements.
And I'll take that as long as we see them as this season progresses and then see them next year and thereafter. Cig and May are outliers, and anyone thinking that there are coaches out there that could pull that off if we only would back up the Brinks truck are kidding themselves.