https://twitter.com/SWiltfong_/status/1990128452419145795?s=20
I hear we had a safety on campus for the game.
Tims I think.
@tammany Yeah, it's Tims. He was down on an OV this weekend for the Wisconsin game. Hearing it is between IU and Louisville. IU feels like the visit went pretty good.
@thehoosierhuddle Tims is another player I dont understand how they are rated like they are rated. What an impressive offer sheet.
Yeah, rated 3 star, yet everybody wants this guy.
Rivals has Tims way down the safety and prospect list. Even just in Florida. I'll go with our coaches eyes and about three dozen other good football programs.
@openwheel Im just tired of us getting hosed in these ratings. It hurts perception of the team unfairly.
As of 30 minutes ago, Jay Timmons is now the #12 player in the 2026 class per Rivals. Pretty impressive to go from in the 500s to #12. All it took was switching that commitment to FSU and to put a OSU helmet on
@openwheel Im just tired of us getting hosed in these ratings. It hurts perception of the team unfairly.
As of 30 minutes ago, Jay Timmons is now the #12 player in the 2026 class per Rivals. Pretty impressive to go from in the 500s to #12. All it took was switching that commitment to FSU and to put a OSU helmet on
That’s why these ratings are a joke.
@kelly_32 I put zero stock into star ratings. Sure it helps boost articles, but I really don’t care.
Recruiting rankings for individual players is an inexact science to be sure. Yes, there are plenty of non blue chippers who turn out great, and busts exits. But recruiting rankings are useful proxies for talent:
four to sevenfive-star recruitson average, although the exact number can vary significantly. For example, some championship teams have had rosters with an average of two five-star recruits, while others have had as many as seven or eight. A key factor is that these teams often have a strong foundation of blue-chip prospects (4- and 5-star players) overall.
- Averages vary by year and team:The specific average fluctuates from year to year and from team to team, but a general range is from four to seven five-star players.
- Depth matters:A team doesn't need a huge number of five-star recruits to win, but they do need a strong overall recruiting class. Many championship teams have a significant number of top-50 ranked players.
- "Blue-chip" ratio:Some championship teams are defined by their high "blue-chip ratio," meaning more than 50% of their roster consists of 4- and 5-star recruits.
- Importance of recruiting classes:Research indicates that almost every national championship team has had at least two top-10 recruiting classes in the four years leading up to their title.
58% of 5-star high school recruits are drafted into the NFL, while around 20.7% of 4-star recruits are drafted. The likelihood of being drafted increases exponentially with star rating, making 4 and 5-star recruits significantly more likely to play in the NFL than lower-ranked players.
- Draft rate: Around 58%.
- Context: One analysis found that about two out of every five 5-star prospects become a long-term NFL player.
- Other findings: In a specific historical sample, 116 out of 262 five-star recruits (44.3%) were drafted, with 42 of them being first-round picks.
- Draft rate: Approximately 20.7%.
- Context: For a given high school class, a higher percentage of 4-star recruits are drafted compared to 2-star or 3-star players.
- Note: This is a significant jump from 3-star recruits, who have about a 6.2% draft rate.
- While 4 and 5-star recruits have a high probability of being drafted, the vast majority of players who make it to the NFL were not 5-star recruits.
- The first-round of the NFL draft is disproportionately made up of 4 and 5-star players, with one analysis showing two-thirds of first-round picks were 4-star or higher as high school recruits.
https://www.formulabot.com/blog/recruit-ranking-college-teams-preparing-nfl-players-analysis
@bradstevens There are less than 40 5-star prospects in a class. There 60+ P4 teams. I get what you're saying. But IU isn't going to start hoarding 5-star high school kids.
Recruiting rankings are VERY subjective and get influenced by who has offered or where they committed to (see Jay Timmons).
I just don't get wrapped up in it.
@bradstevens another point is that most of this data is based on teams before the transfer portal became so ubiquitous. Cig’s approach of finding production in the portal seems to be at least as good if not better than HS star value.
@bradstevens There are less than 40 5-star prospects in a class. There 60+ P4 teams. I get what you're saying. But IU isn't going to start hoarding 5-star high school kids.
Recruiting rankings are VERY subjective and get influenced by who has offered or where they committed to (see Jay Timmons).
I just don't get wrapped up in it.
Exactly.
If Timmons was still committed to Indiana, there is 0% chance he would be a five star today.
@bradstevens There are less than 40 5-star prospects in a class. There 60+ P4 teams. I get what you're saying. But IU isn't going to start hoarding 5-star high school kids.
Recruiting rankings are VERY subjective and get influenced by who has offered or where they committed to (see Jay Timmons).
I just don't get wrapped up in it.
Not only that, but teams can't hoard talent because of the portal. Sure, a team can bring in a ton of 4/5 star kids, but if they don't get immediate playing time or they think they should be making more money, they will immediately transfer out.
The portal has changed a whole lot that people are slow to understand.
@bradstevens - To add to how this data can be skewed, those 5 and 4 star players usually go to the best programs with the best coaches and the best facilities. Thereby, its inherently more likely they would be better for it.
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