@hoosiers94 To me, ODU wasn't the problem with our schedule, but I've said all along, I don't think it's smart to play 3 cupcakes. IMO, the mistake was buying out of Lville and UVA. To me precon should be 1 P5 opponent, 1 mid major and 1 cupcake. We're always going to get penalized for being IU in playoff discussions and are going to have to play our way in, and there's benefit in playing decent opponents for when we get into conference play. Maybe if we'd been tested by Lville, we'd have handled IA more easily. If we really want to be a top team in the conference and nationally, I feel pretty safe in saying, it won't be by playing cupcakes. If a team like Lville or UVA ends your playoff hopes, then you probably weren't legit to begin with.
In 1+ years of an expanded playoff, so far, your hypothesis is wrong. We got in last year, despite 'being Indiana'...pretty comfortably, it turned out. And this year we've got a 68% chance of making it at this point, which is among the top 5 highest chances, if I'm not mistaken.
Though ODU might have been intended to be a cupcake when the contract was signed, they're not this year.
I think that 68% is because ESPN sees us winning one of either Oregon or PSU which I can't see happening. Believe they have us with a 51% chance of beating PSU last I checked. Lose both of those and win the others and our odds probably drop in half.
And if we go 10-2, our odds of getting in will still be higher than ND's.
I'm more concerned about Michigan finishing with only two losses (to #5 Oklahoma and wherever Ohio St. is ranked when they play). You KNOW the Michigan name will get them in over Indiana. It is possible the win at Iowa could/should be the difference; given IU does not upset either Oregon or PSU. Either IU or Mich could slip up and lose a game they are favored to win.
Michigan only losing 2 had never crossed my mind, but looking at their schedule, there's probably a better than 50% chance of that. Washington, MSU and Maryland (maybe?) won't be gimmes, but they'll be favored in all 3.
I'm more concerned about Michigan finishing with only two losses (to #5 Oklahoma and wherever Ohio St. is ranked when they play). You KNOW the Michigan name will get them in over Indiana. It is possible the win at Iowa could/should be the difference; given IU does not upset either Oregon or PSU. Either IU or Mich could slip up and lose a game they are favored to win.
Michigan only losing 2 had never crossed my mind, but looking at their schedule, there's probably a better than 50% chance of that. Washington, MSU and Maryland (maybe?) won't be gimmes, but they'll be favored in all 3.
So given that logic ... a 2 loss Michigan team in over IU I think a 2 loss ND team carries more weight than we do Far greater marketing of the playoff with ND and Michigan in it than IU is what it is
I'm more concerned about Michigan finishing with only two losses (to #5 Oklahoma and wherever Ohio St. is ranked when they play). You KNOW the Michigan name will get them in over Indiana. It is possible the win at Iowa could/should be the difference; given IU does not upset either Oregon or PSU. Either IU or Mich could slip up and lose a game they are favored to win.
Michigan only losing 2 had never crossed my mind, but looking at their schedule, there's probably a better than 50% chance of that. Washington, MSU and Maryland (maybe?) won't be gimmes, but they'll be favored in all 3.
So given that logic ... a 2 loss Michigan team in over IU I think a 2 loss ND team carries more weight than we do Far greater marketing of the playoff with ND and Michigan in it than IU is what it is
Assuming Michigan loses to OSU as loss #2, where on their resume would they have a better win than we do? In fact, it's possible we'd have 2 better wins than they do.
@tammany yes we did. I think we're entirely safe in making the playoffs in any year we can go 11-1 in the regular season. How do you feel about that every year?
And, in the long run, what is Cignetti's goal? He didn't say MD, NB and WI sucked, he said OSU and UM. I think getting on that level, will require playing better teams. And, like I said, it doesn't have to be Texas, OK or ND. I think Lville, UVA, Mizzou, NC St and UK are the level of teams I'm mostly thinking of, and sure, some of them will be good and maybe top 25 in some years and we'll have some losses that way, but I think it would better prepare us and in the long run will help us make it more often than not. I'll bet we'll wish we'd played Lville this year if we lose to both OR and PSU. I think we all know nothing the detractors would love more than to leave us out if we lose 2 games.
@kkott I don’t think we disagree on moving to some P4 non-cons, I’m just in favor of waiting until the risk/reward makes sense and the program is more built up. Cig’s tenure is still early.
Last year we had a brand new team and going into Louisville early in the year could have easily been a loss and we miss the playoff. We just saw FSU lose to UVA. These games are dicey with more downside that upside imo.
Personally I’d rather play Texas, OK, ND, or any top-15 type team because we get more credit for beating them and losing to them doesn’t mess up our season. Idk what IU will schedule going fwd.
Anyways, we won’t agree here and that’s fine. I think IU will start scheduling P4’s now that the SEC changed their scheduling.
@tammany We'll have to, and I'd imagine that will be a mandate from the B10, again soon (not sure it ever went away, but just stop being enforced?). The real irony will be if we have to go back to UVA, because other schools don't have a slot open. Yes, we could have lost to Lville last year, or this year (don't think the UVA series would've started until next year), but honestly, I think we'd have won them both, I have that much faith in Cignetti. We'll see, but I fear we'll get left out if we lose to both OR and PSU, and we'll wish we'd had that game on our schedule.
@kkott Is this conversation about what Dolson and Cig should do now? Or about what Dolson, and whoever else were involved in the decision, should have done when the decisions were made to axe the Louisville and Virginia games?
Because our program is at a VERY different place now than it was when the decision was made to cancel those games.
When those games were scheduled, I'm sure Dolson, and probably Allen at the time, were going off some assumptions that the successes we had in 19-20, etc... would sustain, and having teams like Louisville and Virginia on the schedule early was a good idea. There'd be enough Big 10 wins to still make a bowl game if they lost that game, and the boost they'd get from a win, or even just the competition level was worth it.
But literally over night, making the CFP became something to aspire for...instead of building a consistent 6+ win, bowl eligible program. And they made the CFP without playing a tough OOC game. And they saw that SEC teams have made high end bowl games, BCS games, etc... for years and years, playing 9 P4 games, and 3 Cupcakes. So, they decided to do that.
NOW... the dynamics have changed again with the SEC announced changes in their philosophies. I think since they're going to play 1 P4 non conference game now, that playing 3 cupcakes in the OOC will hurt a teams chances of making the playoffs going forward. So NOW, there's a compelling reason to assume that risk every year.
We already had Notre Dame on the books for 30 and 31, I believe. So if they're wanting to react, they're gonna have to find 2 home and homes.
I don't think becoming OSU or Michigan should drive scheduling decisions. Even if and when we can beat them on the field with any sort of consistency, we're still not either of them program wise. They're in a completely different tax bracket, and should be managed and planned differently than a program like IU, that will continue to operate with "half" the resources. IU's fans will lose the interest they have now the first season they "only" win 8 games. The success has not yet built a large, foundational, avid fanbase.
For that reason, I'm not so sure IU should scramble to schedule a P4. There's always going to be national media bias one way or another. IU football needs to stack wins right now, lots of them, over a number of consecutive years. Build up lifelong IU football fans. Don't put that in danger with meaningless tough matchups, away from Memorial Stadium every other year, that could end in losses. They'll get enough of those challenges in the B10 schedule every year.
@kkott I guess I don’t have the faith we definitely beat UL on the road last year.
And if we get smashed by Oregon and PSU and they leave us out at 10-2 (assuming we get to 10-2), there is a decent case we didn’t deserve it regardless if we played a P4 non-con. Frankly ODU is on the level of a lot of P4’s but I don’t want to bother with that argument.
What really matters now is finding a way to perform closer to our potential in these very hard road games. It’s the next major step we need to take.
@tammany We'll have to, and I'd imagine that will be a mandate from the B10, again soon (not sure it ever went away, but just stop being enforced?). The real irony will be if we have to go back to UVA, because other schools don't have a slot open. Yes, we could have lost to Lville last year, or this year (don't think the UVA series would've started until next year), but honestly, I think we'd have won them both, I have that much faith in Cignetti. We'll see, but I fear we'll get left out if we lose to both OR and PSU, and we'll wish we'd had that game on our schedule.
I'm not sure your fear of being left out if we go 10-2 with wins over Illinois, @ Iowa and perhaps Maryland ends up being a decent win is a rational feeling.
@kkott Is this conversation about what Dolson and Cig should do now? Or about what Dolson, and whoever else were involved in the decision, should have done when the decisions were made to axe the Louisville and Virginia games?
Because our program is at a VERY different place now than it was when the decision was made to cancel those games.
When those games were scheduled, I'm sure Dolson, and probably Allen at the time, were going off some assumptions that the successes we had in 19-20, etc... would sustain, and having teams like Louisville and Virginia on the schedule early was a good idea. There'd be enough Big 10 wins to still make a bowl game if they lost that game, and the boost they'd get from a win, or even just the competition level was worth it.
But literally over night, making the CFP became something to aspire for...instead of building a consistent 6+ win, bowl eligible program. And they made the CFP without playing a tough OOC game. And they saw that SEC teams have made high end bowl games, BCS games, etc... for years and years, playing 9 P4 games, and 3 Cupcakes. So, they decided to do that.
NOW... the dynamics have changed again with the SEC announced changes in their philosophies. I think since they're going to play 1 P4 non conference game now, that playing 3 cupcakes in the OOC will hurt a teams chances of making the playoffs going forward. So NOW, there's a compelling reason to assume that risk every year.
We already had Notre Dame on the books for 30 and 31, I believe. So if they're wanting to react, they're gonna have to find 2 home and homes.
I don't think becoming OSU or Michigan should drive scheduling decisions. Even if and when we can beat them on the field with any sort of consistency, we're still not either of them program wise. They're in a completely different tax bracket, and should be managed and planned differently than a program like IU, that will continue to operate with "half" the resources. IU's fans will lose the interest they have now the first season they "only" win 8 games. The success has not yet built a large, foundational, avid fanbase.
For that reason, I'm not so sure IU should scramble to schedule a P4. There's always going to be national media bias one way or another. IU football needs to stack wins right now, lots of them, over a number of consecutive years. Build up lifelong IU football fans. Don't put that in danger with meaningless tough matchups, away from Memorial Stadium every other year, that could end in losses. They'll get enough of those challenges in the B10 schedule every year.
I agree with pretty much everything you say here. But I'll point out (and I'm sure you know) that the UVA series was just cancelled a few weeks ago, so it's not as if it was done prior to Cig getting here and us establishing ourselves as a CFP program right away.
@gros-louis Too early to know, right now. I think how IU would look in the Oregon and PSU games would play a pretty vital role, ultimately, with the committee, if they finished 10-2 with losses in those games.
Close games that make it obvious we belong in those conversations with those teams, and I think wed get in over really any 2 loss teams that have "bad losses" and not a ton of great wins.
Get blown out in 1 or both of them... and I think it opens them up for 2 loss teams to jump them from anywhere really... and then even 3 loss SEC teams that have some high end wins on their resume.
Assuming 10-2…
21+ loss at Oregon and 14+ loss at PSU I’m very worried. And frankly with those results I won’t be optimistic about what we can do if we made the playoff, though of course I’d still take it.
14 or less at Oregon and close (one score and chance to win) at PSU and that’s probably enough.
Maybe I’m wrong, just my guess.
@gros-louis that one falls under...We made the CFP with 3 cupcakes... much of the SEC has been benefitting from 3 cupcakes for years... Why, on Earth, would a program like Indiana risk a loss, and give up a home game, after taking those factors in to consideration?
NOW, the SEC has changed the calculus. That's fine. If the B10 doesn't change their "rules" like the SEC has, I'm not sure I'd scramble to change IU's plans if I were Dolson and Cig. Take the wins. Take the Gameday opportunities with near guaranteed 3-0, 4-0, etc... teams early on. But if it does become a mandate... there will likely be enough mid level P4 programs willing to play a CFP level B10 team.
I don't really prescribe to the notion that playing a game at Georgia Tech will bolster recruiting in Atlanta. But if it does, schedule someone like them. Or a Florida school. Or a Texas school. Wherever Cig is focusing and wanting to make some recruiting in roads.
Kentucky is going to schedule Louisville every year for their P4 OOC game, so they're out. Maybe a team like Auburn? Not sure if their series with Baylor is home and home or not? But they don't have a rivalry type non SEC opponent. Most of the rest of them do.
But there would be plenty of B12 or ACC schools that would jump at playing IU, I'm sure.
@gros-louis we'll see. I'll believe the good ol'boy network at the top of college football has changed when I see it. Now, they included us last year, because they had to at 11-1. But, if you give them an alternative, like a 10-2 Michigan team as ae 4th place team in the B10, then we'll see.