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Finebaum bowl predictions

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Zeke4ahs
(@zeke4ahs)
Noble Member

Has Alabama playing at IU. Can you even imagine? I think the town would explode!! ( I know these predictions mean zero now but still fun to imagine). 


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Topic starter Posted : 09/28/2025 3:57 pm
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dbmhoosier
(@dbmhoosier)
Noble Member

Posted by: @zeke4ahs

Has Alabama playing at IU. Can you even imagine? I think the town would explode!! ( I know these predictions mean zero now but still fun to imagine). 

We'll have to beat OR or PSU for that to happen imo.

 


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Posted : 09/28/2025 5:27 pm
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YOTHN's avatar
(@yothn)
Prominent Member

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Posted by: @zeke4ahs

Has Alabama playing at IU. Can you even imagine? I think the town would explode!! ( I know these predictions mean zero now but still fun to imagine). 

We'll have to beat OR or PSU for that to happen imo.

 

Illinois beating USC could become a big thing.  If ND wins out, their losses and wins will be compared to IU. Not sure how their schedule would be tougher, depending how we compete with Oregon and PSU. 

 


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Posted : 09/28/2025 6:32 pm
Tammany's avatar
(@tammany)
Famed Member

ND has the brand and the TV ratings, but their schedule is really weak.  Ours is stronger, period.


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Posted : 09/28/2025 6:36 pm
CCMac's avatar
(@ccmac)
Reputable Member

@dbmhoosier I agree,if we lose to both Oregon and Penn St and end 10-2 we won’t make the playoffs.

Well almost didn’t make it last year at 11-1,if they can fun a way to not include us,they will.


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Posted : 09/28/2025 6:50 pm
Walt542's avatar
(@walt542)
Prominent Member

Posted by: @zeke4ahs

Has Alabama playing at IU. Can you even imagine? I think the town would explode!! ( I know these predictions mean zero now but still fun to imagine). 

that would be so much fun. Can you imagine all the talking points with all those former IU guys at Alabama!

 


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Posted : 09/28/2025 7:01 pm
OpenWheel's avatar
(@openwheel)
Noble Member

ESPN FPI ranking has us 5th and ND 6th.

But the ND schedule is so soft, it predicts them a 39% chance to win out, about double the next highest chance to win out. Which of course is Miami in the ACC at 21% .

Gives us a 5.5% chance to win out. Oregon and Ohio State about 16%

Still, only gives ND a 12% chance to make the playoff but us at 68%. Smile Clearly they are not considering the automatic bid ND gets if they do win out... So I would say ND chances are 39% if FPI win-out odds are right. Probably then drops our chances below their prediction.


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Posted : 09/28/2025 7:02 pm
dbmhoosier
(@dbmhoosier)
Noble Member

They will 100% put a 2 loss ND team in over a 2 loss IU team.  It doesn't matter if we played a much tougher schedule and have the better wins.  It's not even a discussion really sucks but it's true.  Especially with NDs losses coming in the beginning of the year.  Hate ND all you want but they know how to gimmick their schedule playing almost no one and putting the 2 good teams on their schedule at the beginning.


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Posted : 09/28/2025 7:26 pm
Mushroomgod's avatar
(@mushroomgod)
Honorable Member

Posted by: @yothn

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Posted by: @zeke4ahs

Has Alabama playing at IU. Can you even imagine? I think the town would explode!! ( I know these predictions mean zero now but still fun to imagine). 

We'll have to beat OR or PSU for that to happen imo.

 

Illinois beating USC could become a big thing.  If ND wins out, their losses and wins will be compared to IU. Not sure how their schedule would be tougher, depending how we compete with Oregon and PSU. 

 

  

Late losses are worse than early losses.  Offsetting that somewhat is that A&M was at ND.  Also, A & M is hot right now, but FSU may lose some luster as the year progresses.

 

Also, both of ND's losses were nail bitters.  We would have to have "good" losses to be competitive.


This post was modified 6 months ago by Mushroomgod
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Posted : 09/28/2025 7:45 pm
YOTHN's avatar
(@yothn)
Prominent Member

Posted by: @mushroomgod

Posted by: @yothn

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Posted by: @zeke4ahs

Has Alabama playing at IU. Can you even imagine? I think the town would explode!! ( I know these predictions mean zero now but still fun to imagine). 

We'll have to beat OR or PSU for that to happen imo.

 

Illinois beating USC could become a big thing.  If ND wins out, their losses and wins will be compared to IU. Not sure how their schedule would be tougher, depending how we compete with Oregon and PSU. 

 

  

Late losses are worse than early losses.  Offsetting that somewhat is that A&M was at ND.  Also, A & M is hot right now, but FSU may lose some luster as the year progresses.

 

Also, both of ND's losses were nail bitters.  We would have to have "good" losses to be competitive.

Right, but if Miami and TA&M have losses...Its all a factor but that Illinois win vs USC could be a huge factor in the end. 

 


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Posted : 09/28/2025 8:15 pm
Zeke4ahs
(@zeke4ahs)
Noble Member

@dbmhoosier if not beat play both really close, at the leAst. And have the SEC beat each other up.


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Topic starter Posted : 09/28/2025 8:42 pm
Mushroomgod's avatar
(@mushroomgod)
Honorable Member

Posted by: @tammany

ND has the brand and the TV ratings, but their schedule is really weak.  Ours is stronger, period.

 

It's close.  If you only look at the teams played, ND's would be harder.  But, of the top 5 teams they play only Miami was on the road, whereas for IU Oregon, PSU & Iowa were/are on the road. So........all thing being equal, ND had an easier chance to lose only 1 game.  On the other hand, we have no right to bitch when we schedule OD, KSU & ISU, imo.

Using FBS computer rankings as a measure:

1.  IU----Oregon....#1....away

2.  ND---Miami......#4....away

3.  IU----PSU........#7....away

4.  ND---A & M.....#13...home

5.  IU----Illinois....#21...home

6.  ND---Navy......#24...home

7.  ND---Boise......#25...home

8.  ND---USC.......#27...home

9.  IU----Iowa......#40...away

10.  IU----MSU.......#50.home

11. ND---Syracuse #52..home

12. ND---Pitt------#53...away

13. IU----MD------#55...away

14. IU----O.D.----#59....home

15. IU----WIS----#61....home

16. ND---NC St.--#63....home

17. ND---Ark......#72.....away

18. ND---BC.......#75.....away

19. ND---Stan.---#93.....away

20. IU----KSU---#109....home

21. IU----UCLA--#112....home

22. IU----Pur----#125....away

22. ND---Pur----#125....home

24. IU----ISU----Not rated..home

 


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Posted : 09/28/2025 8:59 pm
OpenWheel's avatar
(@openwheel)
Noble Member

Navy and Boise? In ESPNs FPI Navy is 70 and Boise is 50.

ND schedules maybe 3 tough (ie. can lose) games a year, we schedule about 6, depending on big ten opponents. So yeah, we can bitch when their remaining strength of schedule is 68 and ours toughens up to a grind. They dont have to turn around and be ready many weeks in a row. They get breaks with softer games.

Theyre a good team, no doubt, if they win out they get in. Just saying they get an automatic bump based on name. 

Boises an OK game. Hmmm, scheduled them at home, I see. When is the game on the road at Boise? I dont see one.

 


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Posted : 09/28/2025 9:24 pm
HoosierAlum07
(@hoosieralum07)
Reputable Member

The only thing I’m worried about right now is beating Oregon! Win that game somehow, and we can afford to lose 1 maybe 2 games and make it to the CFP without any arguments!


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Posted : 09/28/2025 9:36 pm
Hoosiers94
(@hoosiers94)
Noble Member

@dbmhoosier 

 

they play a partial acc schedule they have to play 5/6 acc teams each year.  Acc rotates them. They play Stanford .. now acc.,, USC and navy every year. Have done so for decades 

they schedule years out.  They played Arkansas , Texas an and m, Boise st next week , Purdue.  I'd hardly call that manipulating the schedule.  Say what you want but their schedule being softer this year isn't on them.  It's on the programs that have waxed and waned in talent.  And what the acc gives them.  We played Indiana at old Dominion and kennesaw st.  We are our own worst enemy with that.  
what you should be mad at is how the media and the committee perceives them and their following.   That's what's a little slighted but as many that move them do hate them. So... it goes both ways.  They have a following  , one of the best.  Can't take that away from them 


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Posted : 09/28/2025 9:47 pm
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