So....looked at three preseason forecasts nationally and noticed that all 3 had the same top 6 teams, albeit in different orders: OSU, Georgia, Texas, ND, IU & Oregon....
ESPN: OSU; Oregon; ND; GA; IU; TX
Phil Steele: ND; GA; OSU; TX; IU; Oregon
Bleacher Report: OSU; GA; IU; TX; Oregon; ND
So...did a little looking at the other 5 teams, and have a few comments concerning them....
Georgia: My top 4 going into the year before taking a closer look were OSU, GA; ND & IU, in no particular order. What I read that changed my mind a little bit about GA is that they lost their top 5 receivers from last year, either to the NFL or to the TP. Altogether, they lost 8 underclassmen to the NFL. Love Gunner Stockton as a QB and think Krirby Smart is a top 3 college coach, but that's a big hit.
Notre Dame: Really a ND hater, but I really think ND is a big-time threat this year. Something like 9/top 10 tacklers are back, the QB looks primed to have a big year, and they couldn't have a better schedule. They have all kinds of recruiting momentum, and the coach seems to be settling in.
OSU: Day's obviously a good coach, and the big 3 of Savin, Smith & TB Jackson is dynamic.....But....they lost 4 defenders who were in the top 11 NFL draft picks, as well as QB Tate. You know they're going to be in it, but I wouldn't have them in the top 2 going into the year. The schedule is brutal, so they might not win the BT even if they turn out to be the best team.
Oregon: I was listening to a podcast the other day, and both guys agreed on 2 things: 1. Oregon should have the top D in CF this year and 2. They have a top 2 roster in CF. Both guys picked them to win the BT. Their DL had 4 studs, and the safety they got from Minnesota will probably be an AA there. All that said, I don't trust Lanning or Damon Moore. I particularly note Moore's adversion to running the ball when required, ala Mendoza's dive, and his propensity for TOs. Another factor---Oregon had to replace both the OC & the DC.
Texas: Arch Manning was hugely over-rated at the beginning of the year, but damn good by year's end. They added the #1 WR in the portal, and already had Ryan Wingo, who is top notch. This is another case where a team should be top 3, but you can't trust the coach. Sark seems over-rated to me.
My early prediction is a ND-IU NC match-up. Thoughts?
I haven’t read too much on Georgia yet.
However, ND is primed for a title run. I do think people are underestimating the loss of Love and Price at RB, but they are loaded. However, their margin for error is thin. They need to beat Miami, BYU and SMU. But as long as they’re in the top 12 they’re in.
Ohio State is loaded on offense, although losing Tate may hurt early. Their schedule is loaded. Texas early, at Iowa, at IU, at USC and Oregon at home. IU might be a must win for a Big Ten title berth for OSU.
I love Oregon, but they have run into a wall the last two seasons. All 3 losses were to the eventual national champs the last two years.
Moore should be better, if they get Evan Stewart back 100% that makes that offense so much better. They are loaded upfront on defense and those young, but talented DBs are no longer young.
As far as IU goes, they have the talent to run the table, but going getting to the NC game two years in a row is a lot of football games. 10-2 gets you into the CFP and that’s on the low side of projections. The Big Ten Title will come down to who of the three of OSU, Oregon and Indiana can not lose a dumb game.
A lot of uncontrolled luck too to have that matchup in the final. Have to be on the opposite side of the bracket, but logic is sound.
I can't fathom or take seriously a bunch of hype for returning players on a Defense that surrendered 30 points to last seasons Purdue Offense and over 40 to a mid Texas A&M SEC Offense.
@middawg Exactly. Its rich how people continue to make fun of our schedule when the true culprit is Notre Dame. They beat up all the worst teams in the ACC (who are the worst teams in the P4), lost 2 of the 3 games against teams with a pulse, and people were upset they didnt make the playoffs
Their schedule this year looks even worse than the one last year. I dont think they should be included in the playoffs if they lose a single game. BYU got left out last year with 11 regular season wins and they had a few ranked wins (Utah, Arizona, TCU)
ND = Paper Tiger
Their only path to CFP is through schedule manipulating.
Problem is that they get in automatically if they win 10 games. *(Correction: if they finish in the top 12) written into the Playoffs contract (look it up). No one should root for those jokers.
They’ve rigged the system, not only to automatically get in the Playoffs but to also stay relatively fresh and peaking at its start…. They dropped USC from the schedule and replaced them with Syracuse (who they should beat by 40+ regularly)…The only team who has a realistic shot at beating them is Miami (and that one loss won’t affect their shot at getting their needed 10 wins (to stay in the top 12) for an automatic slot)…
I’ve never had any respect for ND football… With all their built in advantages, if they’re not sitting at 11-1 or better each regular season they ought to look for a new staff…
Problem is that they get in automatically if they win 10 games
Sort of, its not if they win 10 games, its if they finish top 12 they are guaranteed (which is very likely with 10 wins). I dont blame USC at all for getting rid of that game even though its a historical rivalry, I hope more teams follow their lead and cancel with ND. If that rule had been in place this year, Miami would have been left out of the playoffs for Notre Dame even though Miami had the H2H. Whats the point of playing a team when the rules are like that?
The only game they play this year against a team that will be top 15 in power ratings is Miami. BYU and SMU are probably in the top 20-25 range. Then its again all the worst teams in the ACC and B1G. Compared to our schedule where we play OSU, USC, Michigan, Washington. At Nebraska would probably be the 2nd or 3rd hardest game on NDs schedule... And Minnesota would be their 4th hardest game.
I dont think they would get in this year with 10 wins, but most years they are a lock. I would be shocked if they drop 2 games.
Problem is that they get in automatically if they win 10 games. *(Correction: if they finish in the top 12) written into the Playoffs contract (look it up). No one should root for those jokers.
They’ve rigged the system, not only to automatically get in the Playoffs but to also stay relatively fresh and peaking at its start…. They dropped USC from the schedule and replaced them with Syracuse (who they should beat by 40+ regularly)…The only team who has a realistic shot at beating them is Miami (and that one loss won’t affect their shot at getting their needed 10 wins (to stay in the top 12) for an automatic slot)…
I’ve never had any respect for ND football… With all their built in advantages, if they’re not sitting at 11-1 or better each regular season they ought to look for a new staff…
10-2 with that schedule and they aren’t sniffing the top 12.
10-2 with that schedule and they aren’t sniffing the top 12.
I wish I could agree, but its not a guarantee. Past season they went 1-2 against ranked teams and they still got 10th place in the final AP ahead of BYU, who finished 11-2 with a 2-2 record against ranked teams + two wins over teams who just missed the top 25 (lot of receiving votes)
I get the argument of ND was much better than BYU in metrics. But that doesnt explain how they finished 4 spots ahead of Utah in that case, who had similar metrics, when Utah had a 11-2 record. I also dont think final AP rankings should consider metrics unless its effectively a "tie" in the resume, as the rankings should reflect what happened on the field opposed to who would win a hypothetical match
The only way to solve the favoritism they get is for teams to stop scheduling them, and force them to join a conference. Its unfair they will practically never play more than 3 ranked teams at most in a season, dont have to play a CCG, and get a top 12 autoride which basically boosts their CFP ranking 2 spots
You are right. I guess I read the original text and figured that meant they would only need 10 wins to stay in the top 12 (given their usual 5 spots too high ranking inflation)…
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they got a #12 ranking with even 3 losses…
@76-1 9-3 and playoffs would be bad. It’s why I don’t understand why Pettiti is pushing so hard for a 24 team playoff. We would see 8-4, maybe even 7-5 team (if OSU, Texas etc) make the playoffs in that case. Regular season would be incredibly boring because none of the games would have post season complications
Pettiti is the worst commissioner the B1G could have hired. He should be focused on how crappy our viewership numbers are relative to the SEC instead of playoffs. The reason our viewership stinks is because he lets NBC flex good games to Peacock, and he doesn’t fight for us in the media. It’s telling he doesn’t even have a social media account while Sankey is out there all the time. More B1G teams need to be ranked in the pre-season / early season polls instead of waiting for the season to play out, that strategy is getting us crushed for the first ~3/4 of the season