Numbers that Matter: Week Five Maryland Terrapins

Written by: Nate Comp (@NathanComp1)

Whether you prefer to use the numbers or the eye test, Indiana likely will face its toughest opponent so far this season when they welcome Maryland to town. The Hoosiers have graded out phenomenally when it comes to the statistics early on this season but have also benefited from an easier schedule. Let’s take a look at some of the stats that could come into play in game number five.

300

It is hard to say what has been better for Indiana thus far, the defensive or offensive side of the ball. While the headlines have focused on the Indiana offense scoring more points in a four-game stretch than ever before, the defense has held up its part of the deal as well. Indiana has allowed under 300 yards of offense in all four games this season. The last time the Hoosiers had a stretch of under 300 allowed in four in a row was 1996.

38

The Maryland offense is going to try to change this trend of a strong Indiana defense on Saturday, and they have had success in the past. Maryland has scored at least 38 points in each of their last three against the Hoosiers. This is the Terrapins’ longest streak of games scoring 38+ points against a single opponent since a four-game streak against Duke between 1982 and 1985.

92.2

If the Hoosiers want to slow down the Maryland offense, their sights should be set on limiting Tai Felton. Felton is currently ranked as Pro Football Focus’ number one receiver in all of the nation in receiving rate, earning a 92.2 grade to beat out Tre Harris (Ole Miss) and Dont’e Thornton (Tennessee). Felton has 41 catches for 604 yards and five touchdowns in the four games this season and last game became the first Maryland player to open a season with four straight games of at least 100 yards receiving. He is third in the nation currently in receptions of 20+ yards (9).

Seven

Games can often come down to the turnover margin. Who has the advantage here? Well, Indiana and Maryland actually both rank third nationally in turnover margin thus far, each with a +7 margin through four games. However, Indiana has accomplished this by remaining clean thus far in turning the ball over; the Hoosiers are one of just three teams (Louisville, Georgia) to have not turned the ball over yet this season.

91%

Will weather have an impact on Saturday’s game? It sure looks like it might. Per weather.com, Friday in Bloomington is expected to certainly be wet – 1 to 2 inches of rain are forecasted as of now. That rain, as a result of Hurricane Helene, will likely linger into Saturday as well as kickoff currently shows a 91% chance of rain and 10-15mph winds. 

18

Will forecasted rain mean an increase in the ground game? Potentially. If so, the Indiana offense has shown to be capable thus far. The Hoosiers currently lead the nation in rushing touchdowns with 18 on the season and are 17th nationally in rushing yardage. For context, Indiana had 13 rushing touchdowns in all of 2023, 15 in 2022, 13 in 2021, 12 in 2020 (shortened season), and 23 in 2019. 

58.54%

And finally, one surefire way to annoy an opposing defense is to consistently have success on third downs. Indiana is doing just that so far this season, currently ranking 3rd nationally with a third down conversion rate of 58.54% (24 of 41).

If the Hoosiers can win the turnover battle, slow down Tai Felton and the Maryland offense, rush the ball well, and convert on third downs… they should be in store for another successful Saturday afternoon of football.