Numbers that Matter: Indiana at Ohio State
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Written by: Nate Comp (@NathanComp1)
Numbers drive so much in today’s world and the sports world is no different. Now more than ever teams are hiring and building analytics teams to get every edge possible over their opponents. Over the course of the season, we’ll look into many of those numbers previewing and following the Hoosiers’ matchup that week.
Today, we’ll examine Indiana’s upcoming matchup on the road against the #2 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes.
53
There will be offensive firepower all over the field in this clash of two top five ranked teams, but I think a lot of the game will come down to how both teams’ big men perform on both sides of the ball. The Hoosiers have a stud along their defensive line, Mikail Kamara, who will be matched up against a new-look Ohio State offensive line after their starting center Seth McLaughlin tore his Achilles this week. Kamara currently leads the nation in pressures with 53, and after a slower week against Michigan a few weekends ago, he will be hungry to attack the quarterback. Ohio State’s offensive line currently ranks 79th in the country in pass block grade per PFF.
52.7
How will Ohio State quarterback Will Howard respond under pressure? Well, thus far this season, he has not shown to be stellar. Howard currently ranks 58th nationally when under pressure with a 52.7 passing grade per PFF. He holds the ball on average for just 3.28 seconds when under pressure, the 28th quickest time to throw. What does this mean? Well, he doesn’t like to hold the ball under pressure and when he is throwing it – he is not very accurate.
90.6
You can very easily compare the last stat to Indiana’s quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has been much calmer and more collected when under pressure this season. Rourke is currently the only QB in college football with an 80+ grade for passing under pressure per PFF. And better yet, he is well above 80 – Rourke’s grade currently sits at 90.6.
5.8
It’ll be another noon kick, and that may be something to monitor for Ohio State. They’ve been known to have a sleepy start to games this season. In fact, in their ten games, the Buckeyes have scored more than 7 points just once; that came against Western Michigan, a 5-5 MAC team that is currently ranked 117th out of 134 in points per game allowed. In their nine other games, Ohio State has averaged only 5.8 points per first quarter.
10-2
The Hoosiers will be coming off of a bye week, which I think could be huge in this matchup. We already saw Cignetti’s Hoosiers off of a bye earlier this season – that resulted in a 56-7 drubbing of Nebraska. How will this time go? Well, historically, since taking the head coaching job at Elon in 2017, Cignetti is 10-2 after a bye week and is averaging 38.83 points per game. Of course, no test will be as difficult as this matchup against Ohio State, but Cignetti with extra time to prepare should have the Buckeyes a little bit scared.
60.2%
Success rate is a stat that depends on the down and distance of a given play. To be deemed “successful”, teams must:
Pick up at least 50% of required yardage on 1st down
Pick up at least 70% of required yardage on 2nd down
Pick up 100% of required yardage on 3rd or 4th down
For Indiana, Kurtis Rourke has been phenomenally successful. The Indiana passing offense has a 60.2% success rate, while the Ohio State defense has just a 36.6% success rate. Rourke has done this all while delivering a Big Ten-best 10.4 yards per attempt.