Hoosier Huddle's Big Ten Bowl Projections- November 28th

Written By T.J. Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)

CFP team(s) – Ohio State vs. Clemson (last week: Ohio State vs. Clemson)

The Ohio State Buckeyes won a classic contest over the Michigan Wolverines at Ohio Stadium and likely punched their ticket to the College Football Playoff. I see only one way the Buckeyes are left out and I’m not even sure this scenario would cause that outcome. If Penn State wins the Big Ten Championship Game over Wisconsin, would the “conference champion bump” propel PSU over Ohio State and then would the committee take fellow conference champions Washington and Clemson (if both win this weekend) and keep OSU from the top four? I don’t think so because OSU’s overall resume is better than Penn State’s. It’s a plausible outcome though so Buckeye fans shouldn’t book tickets and make plans just yet. Still, I think Ohio State will be the #2 seed (their victories over Oklahoma and Wisconsin look better and better with each passing week) and ACC Champion Clemson would be the #3 seed and they’d likely face-off in Glendale in the Fiesta Bowl on December 31.

Rose Bowl – January 2 at 8:30 – Wisconsin vs. Colorado (last week: Wisconsin vs. Colorado)

Despite some very tense moments against rival Minnesota, the Wisconsin Badgers made some huge plays in the fourth quarter and survived the Golden Gophers to retain Paul Bunyan’s Axe, win the Big Ten West and keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. I personally don’t think this but both teams playing this Saturday in Indianapolis will feel that a victory gives them a real shot to be selected for the “Final Four”. I actually think they are playing for a berth in the Rose Bowl and I am projecting the Wisconsin Badgers and their elite defense to earn their way to Pasadena with a victory over the Nittany Lions. The Colorado Buffaloes and Washington Huskies are facing off on Friday night in the PAC-12 Championship Game and I think the Huskies will come away with a victory and a spot as the #4 seed in the playoff. That leaves the Buffaloes, who would still probably be in the top ten, as the PAC-12’s representative in the Rose Bowl. A matchup between the Badgers and Buffaloes would be pretty fun and the red of Wisconsin versus the black and gold from Colorado would look very nice on what is routinely one of the most beautiful broadcasts of the season.

Capital One Orange Bowl – December 30 at 8:00 – Michigan vs. Florida State (last week: Michigan vs. Louisville)

What in the heck happened to the Louisville defense? The Cardinals were drubbed by Houston and then knocked off by rival Kentucky and now Lamar Jackson’s Heisman victory, once considered a sure-thing, is in question and the Cardinals have likely fallen out of the New Year’s Six mix. The highest non-playoff ACC team gets this spot and the Florida State Seminoles, #14 in the most recent CFP rankings, have won four games in a row and will almost certainly pass the fading Cardinals. As I wrote last week, the Big Ten will place a team in the Orange Bowl because the non-champion and non-Rose Bowl participant from the Big Ten is going to be ranked higher than anyone besides Alabama from the SEC. I think 10-2 Michigan will get the nod over 10-3 Penn State and the Wolverines will take on the Cardinals. If the Wolverines are blown out by the Buckeyes, they may fall well behind Penn State and the Nittany Lions would find themselves in South Florida. Seeing Dalvin Cook and young Deondre Francois take on Michigan’s elite defense would be a pretty fun treat and I think both schools would relish the chance to take on a traditional power and try to salvage a season they entered with hopes of achieving higher things.

Cotton Bowl – January 2 at Noon – Penn State vs. Western Michigan (last week: Penn State vs. Western Michigan)

Congratulations to the Penn State Nittany Lions, the Big Ten East Champions. I kept on doubting and they kept on winning games. I respect what they’ve done, particularly on offense and Joe Moorhead deserves a ton of credit. However, I’m still projecting Wisconsin and their elite defense to get the job done over the Nittany Lions this Saturday. If they manage to knock off the Badgers and have wins over both Ohio State and Wisconsin with losses at Michigan and Pittsburgh, do they get chosen for the Playoff? I doubt it and I’m guessing they’d end up in the Rose Bowl. However, we’ll project 10-3 with a loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game. The other conferences are kind of a mess and the Cotton Bowl has two “at-large” spots for its game. I guess it kind of makes perfect sense to reward the Nittany Lions with a New Year’s Six bowl game in Dallas against the unbeaten MAC champions, the Western Michigan Broncos. If this happens and the Nittany Lions get chosen as an “at-large” squad for a New Year’s Six bowl, there will be a domino effect throughout the rest of the Big Ten bowls. 

Outback Bowl – January 2 at 1:00 – Nebraska vs. LSU (last week: Nebraska vs. Florida)

The Huskers were shelled at Iowa and finished the regular season at 9-3. They have now lost three of their last five games and the shine has faded on this once promising season. That being said, 9-3 is still a nice achievement for Mike Riley in his second season. They fired Bo Pelini for consistently having seasons like this (as well as being a raving lunatic on the sideline) and they now have to replace Tommy Armstrong so Riley isn’t all of a sudden going to be “the answer” in Lincoln. The Outback Bowl is the top non-New Year’s Six game for the conference if an at-large B1G team is chosen for the Orange Bowl. In that case, which I see happening, the Big Ten forfeits a slot in the Capital One Citrus Bowl. The Huskers could see a couple of different SEC squads: Florida (likely 8-4), Auburn (8-4), LSU (7-4) and Texas A&M (8-4) are all possibilities. Auburn was just here in 2015 and I think Florida ends up in the Citrus Bowl so we’ll go with the LSU Tigers and newly promoted head coach Ed Orgeron as the opponent.

Holiday Bowl – December 27 at 7:00 – Minnesota vs. Stanford (last week: Minnesota vs. Washington State)

As I wrote earlier, Penn State getting chosen for the Cotton Bowl has a domino effect for the rest of the Big Ten’s bowl slots. In short, Penn State taking an “at-large” slot basically moves every team below the Outback Bowl up one bowl (it doesn’t work exactly like that but, as far as I can figure, the Big Ten’s bowl tie-ins have to be filled by Big Ten teams so it is an apt way of thinking about it). That means Minnesota, whom I am projecting to finish at 8-4 by losing their finale to Wisconsin, moves from the Music City Bowl to the Holiday Bowl. The PAC-12 is tough to figure because they don’t have great tie-ins and their standings are somewhat jumbled. Stanford has now won five straight games to get to 9-3 and they have star power in Christian McCaffrey. They did lose to Washington State earlier in the season but they now have momentum and a better record than the Cougars so I think the Cardinal get the nod to take on the Gophers.

Music City Bowl – December 30 at 3:30 – Iowa vs. Kentucky (last week: Iowa vs. Georgia)

The Iowa Hawkeyes finished up the regular season as one of the hottest teams in the conference as they blitzed Nebraska 40-10 and finished at 8-4. The Big Ten hasn’t been to this bowl game since 2005 and the bowl’s new contract states that the Big Ten must be represented in this game three times by 2019. I think it’s time. Interestingly, the Hawkeyes have never played in the Music City Bowl and I think it’s a game their loyal fan-base would be pleased to travel to. The SEC standings are a mess and I’m not sure how to make any sense of it. There are a number of teams that could be in this slot: Arkansas, Kentucky, maybe even Auburn or Texas A&M (although the Aggies were in Nashville last year). Georgia losing to Georgia Tech drops them from this slot. Kentucky hasn’t been in this game since 2009 and their fans are riding high after shocking Louisville this past Saturday so this would be a fresh matchup between two ascending teams. 

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – December 28 at 2:00 – Northwestern vs. Pittsburgh (last week: Northwestern vs. Pittsburgh)

Northwestern ran all over Illinois and became bowl eligible with their sixth victory. They have not been to the Pinstripe Bowl and there are a large number of loyal Northwestern fans in the New York area. Fellow 6-6 team Indiana cannot go back to this bowl game this season and I don’t think Maryland gets selected ahead of the Wildcats. Their opponent is more difficult to figure out but the Pitt Panthers make sense. They are now 8-4 and their offense is on fire. They could very easily get scooped up by the Sun Bowl or the Belk Bowl but I’ll continue to project to the Panthers to the Pinstripe Bowl and this would be a pretty interesting matchup that I wouldn’t mind watching. 

Foster Farms Bowl – December 28 at 8:30 – IU vs. Washington State (last week: IU vs. Utah)

The Indiana Hoosiers did just enough to get by the Purdue Boilermakers and take home the Old Oaken Bucket for the fourth straight season. They are going bowling for the second straight season and they’ll be headed to one four places (according to the IU Athletics ticket site): Nashville for the Music City Bowl, Santa Clara for the Foster Farms Bowl, Detroit for the Quick Lane Bowl or Dallas for the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl. I think the only two realistic options are Santa Clara and Detroit and I am projecting Indiana to get the nod for the Foster Farms Bowl ahead of Maryland based on the head-to-head win and Maryland’s recent blowout defeats. If the destination is Santa Clara, the Hoosiers will take on a talented PAC-12 squad. There are only six PAC-12 schools that are bowl eligible and they are all good: Washington, Washington State, Stanford, Colorado, USC and Utah are all at least 8-4. The Cougars, an 8-4 (7-2) squad that lost their first two and last two games, are the pick over Utah based on a 7-2 conference record over the Utes’ 5-4 conference record. The most improved pass defense in the country against Luke Falk and Mike Leach’s “air raid” attack? That sounds like an intriguing storyline that a bowl game could latch on to.

Quick Lane Bowl – December 26 at 2:30 – Maryland vs. NC State (last week: Maryland vs. Georgia Tech)

Maryland pulled out of their spiral thanks to facing the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and they picked up their sixth victory of the season and became bowl eligible in D.J. Durkin’s first season. In my opinion, a head-to-head loss to IU moves Maryland to Detroit and lets the Hoosiers go to the sunshine of Santa Clara but I could very easily see IU end up in this game. Ultimately, that should be okay for IU fans because it’d be closer to travel to and it would give the Hoosiers a more beatable opponent. The ACC has a whopping eleven bowl eligible teams and three of them are 6-6. Wake Forest and Boston College are also possible squads for this bowl but I’ll go with the Wolfpack.