Big Ten Conference Preview: Will Ohio State Continue to Dominate?

Image: Indiana University Athletics

 A troubled 2020 season heralded a shortened version of the Big Ten Conference season last year. With the health of the country at risk, teams made a responsible and difficult decision to call a close to all events in August, and began a shortened, eight-game season on October 24th.

Football wasn’t by any means the only affected entertainment of course, but the adaptations we saw from other industries are sadly inimitable for the world of sports. Education shifted to digital classrooms, we saw birthday parties happen over video calls and Zoom become a household name.

Even in countries left less ravaged by the virus like New Zealand, companies invested heavily in their online components. Leisure resort chain SkyCity sought to push their skycitycasino.com domain as social habits saw people remain less willing to be out and about, even when public health was not of high concern.

What hope then, for humble college football?

It’s not an overstatement to say that after the last year, this year’s Big Ten Conference is a huge deal not just for young athletes, but the rest of us too. We could all use a little excitement.

For a preview of the upcoming months, read on below.
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The ACC has Clemson, with their six-year winning streak, and the Big Ten is all about Ohio State. The Buckeyes have now landed four Big Ten championship wins in a row and not surprisingly, are the short-odds favorite to win a fifth title when the conference gets under way on August 28.

The Buckeyes’ domination has also extended the success of the East Division, which has produced the last seven conference championship winners. Still, some of those Ohio State wins have been close calls, and its rivals are waiting to take advantage if standards slip this season, particularly in the wide-open West Division.

 Hope for rivals

Ohio State’s stats make impressive reading. Incredibly, they have a 22-1 win-loss record in the conference over the last three years – a trend that extends to a 72-9 record in the last decade. For an indication of how far ahead of the competition Ohio State are, bear in mind that the next best record is held by Wisconsin, which has lost 22 games over that period.

Not surprisingly, the Buckeyes are big favorites with bettors, but not as short in the odds as you might expect. In fact, there are some questions to answer. Justin Fields has departed to begin his NFL adventure, leaving Ohio State with a choice between three freshmen: CJ Stroud, Kyle McCord or Jack Miller. In fact, at the time of writing, the Buckeyes’ rosters do not include a quarterback who has thrown even one pass in a college football game.

Of course, whoever ends up with the responsibility will have plenty of weapons, most notably Chris Olave and Garret Wilson, but it isn’t ideal to go into a new season with the most pivotal position on the field unfilled, and Ohio State’s Big Ten rivals will hope to exploit those doubts.

Penn State certainly don’t have those worries, as they will once again feature Sean Clifford, while Michigan will be boosted by Alan Bowman, who has moved from Texas Tech. Michigan have the advantage of a home tie with the Buckeyes, who must also travel to Illinois this season.

There are likely to be plenty of challengers in the West Division too, with little to choose between the most prominent contenders, particularly Pat Fitzgerald’s Northwestern and the Iowa Hawkeyes, guided by Kirk Ferentz. So, could this be the year to oppose the Buckeyes?

Wide-open conference

Given the dominance of the Buckeyes, you’d be forgiven for thinking that the Big Ten is a predictable conference, but that wouldn’t be true. Yes, some teams have gone through spells of being extremely bad, most notably Illinois and Michigan State. Yet even when they were at rock bottom, they’ve been able to pull off remarkable wins. Take last season, when Michigan State overcame Michigan, despite being 22-point underdogs, or Illinois pounding Nebraska on the road.

Ohio State have the reputation for being able to source the best players nationally, but they are the exception. The other teams in the conference tend to recruit from the same regional talent pool. Wisconsin and Iowa, for example, are known to compete over the same group of players, with Minnesota likely to be joining that competition.

The predominance of regional recruiting means a wide spread of very similar players, with closely matched offenses and not much to separate them. So while Ohio will most likely continue to have the edge over their rivals, there are betting opportunities to be found among some of the other main contenders and there are plenty of examples of underdogs recording big wins.

Big Hoosiers challenge

The East Division betting is obviously dominated by Ohio State, and bettors will be eagerly trying to find the best prices among the range of short odds. But while the Buckeyes are strong favorites, this is pretty much a transition year for the program, so it could pay to consider alternatives.

While there are several interesting contenders in the East, the best bet could be Indiana. Tom Allen has done a fantastic job in Indiana, and has generated a level of self-belief that is extremely impressive. Continuity is also a big factor for the Hoosiers as they welcome back 17 starting players, including quarterback Michael Penix.

The Hoosiers will also be able to play without fear when they take on Ohio State. Indiana regularly give the Buckeyes a good game, and last season came close to picking up a big win when restricting their rivals to -1 running yards while registering over 600 yards on offense. Bettors looking out for alternatives in the East should definitely consider the Hoosiers.

Wisconsin challenge

In the West, the competition feels much more open. Admittedly, this is often the case pre-season, yet Wisconsin and Northwestern have dominated the division in the last five years. Of the two, Wisconsin are the most consistent, reaching the conference championship game six times since the format was changed. In fact, that’s the same number of times as Wisconsin have been in it.

Still, if you’re looking for reasons to oppose the Badgers, you don’t have to look too far. Last season, Wisconsin played seven and finished with an unimpressive 4-3 record. Admittedly, their season was hit by a host of issues, including quarterback injuries but it might also signal that the Badgers could be vulnerable this time round.

The question for bettors studying the West Division betting is which alternative to opt for. Could it be time for Iowa to step up and reclaim the crown they last won in 2014? Are Minnesota the answer? Will this be the season that Scott Frost’s Nebraska fulfill their potential? Many bettors looking to oppose the Badgers could keep it simple and opt for Northwestern.

Wildcats have topped the West twice in the last three seasons and while other programs struggled in the Covid-19 hit 2020 season, Northwestern finished with a 6-1 conference record. The Wildcats offense was unrecognizable from the 2019 unit, and with Pat Fitzgerald having once again spurned NFL advances to sign a 10-year contract, Northwestern seem as dangerous as ever.