2016 Season Preview: November 19th at Michigan
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Written By T.J. Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)
Week Tweleve: Michigan
Date and Time: November 19, 2016/TBA
Venue: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan
TV: TBA
WOLVERINES AT A GLANCE
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh
2nd season at Michigan
Overall Record (at Michigan): 68-30 (10-3)
Team Last Year: 10-3
Preseason Predictions
Athlon: 2nd in the Big Ten East
Sporting News: 2nd in the Big Ten East
Lindy’s: 2nd in the Big Ten East
Phil Steele: 2nd in the Big Ten East
RETURNING LEADERS FOR THE WOLVERINES
Passing: Wilton Speight (9-25 for 73 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT)
Rushing: De’Veon Smith (181 carries for 755 yards with six touchdowns)
Receiving: Amara Darboh (58 catches for 727 yards with five touchdowns)
Defender: Jourdan Lewis (44.5 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 2 INTs, 20 PBUs)
WHY THE WOLVERINES WILL WIN
In short, the Michigan Wolverines will win this late-season clash because they have one of the country’s best rosters combined with one of its premier coaching staffs. IU hasn’t won in the Big House in 49 years and the Maize and Blue are likely to enter this contest ranked somewhere inside of the top 15 in the polls (unless things have gone surprisingly poorly for UM).
On offense, it all starts up front as Michigan can realistically think about landing all five offensive linemen on one of the three All-Big Ten squads. The Hoosiers may end up having an adequate defensive front but they almost certainly won’t be able to match the Michigan front. UM will lean heavily on steady senior running back De’Veon Smith along with returnees Derrick Green and Ty Isaac and impact freshmen Kareem Walker and Kingston Davis. When they decide to pass, the three primary targets will be seniors Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson and tight end Jake Butt.
Although IU will be comfortable in the new 4-2-5 scheme by the time this game rolls around, these three have torched IU’s secondary in recent years and they’ll feel confident about their chances to do it again. Anything could happen between now and the middle of November but it appears the Wolverines will be starting Houston transfer John O’Korn at quarterback. He doesn’t have any game experience in the Big Ten but Harbaugh has had a lot of success with quarterbacks of all skill levels, including last season with Jake Rudock, and O’Korn has shown his talent at the D1 level (he had a very strong freshman season for the Cougars). With this coaching staff, the myriad of weapons on offense and a very strong offensive line, it’s hard to worry too much about the quarterback position in Ann Arbor. Michigan has scored 34 points or more every time they’ve taken on a Kevin Wilson-led team. Despite some improvement on defense for IU, it’ll take a mammoth effort to keep the Wolverines in check.
Michigan lost defensive coordinator DJ Durkin to Maryland but the Wolverines added Don Brown, aka Dr. Blitz, and they’ll be well-versed in his aggressive style come mid-November. The Hoosiers will face a constant barrage of blitzes that will test even the most prolific of offenses and the steadiest of offensive lines. Again, the front is strong for the Wolverines. Chris Wormley and Taco Charlton combine to form a strong pass-rushing duo while Matt Godin, Brady Pallante and Graham Glasgow are stout in the interior. IU prides itself on its ability to run on anyone but Michigan won’t let the Hoosiers have anything easily. The secondary should be spectacular thanks to Jourdan Lewis, Dymonte Thomas and others. Linebacker may be a bit of a question mark after heavy losses in that group but hybrid safety Jabrill Peppers will fill in some at the position and there are enough talented pieces to keep the linebacker unit solid. Don Brown was an exceptional hire for Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines are returning a whole lot of talent and experience that will make them one of the better defenses in the conference and a handful for IU’s offense.
WHY THE HOOSIERS WILL WIN
IU players and coaches don’t have to search their memories very hard to find an example of a time in which the Hoosiers were equal to the Michigan Wolverines. Last season’s thrilling battle between the two sides ended in heartbreak for IU as Michigan topped the Hoosiers in overtime, 48-41. Make no mistake though, Indiana should have won that game and they can take confidence into this year’s game. Not only do they belong on the field with the mighty Wolverines, they should have knocked them off.
While Michigan will have an attacking defense filled with top-level recruits and plenty of players hopeful of continuing their football careers in the NFL, the Hoosiers offense won’t be lacking for offensive talent to go to battle with. In addition, Kevin Wilson and Kevin Johns are imminently capable of conducting an offense that produces points (as long as they have healthy players). Wilson has not been shy about his admiration for the skills of Camion Patrick and the depth of the wide receiver corps and we know the offensive line is a strength of this program.
It’s possible the Hoosiers use the confidence from last season’s 41-point output to get off to a nice start, fall into a rhythm and begin running downhill (Michigan’s run defense was only 20th against the run last season, so not quite elite) on the Wolverines, much like they did last season. While I certainly don’t anticipate that IU will have a great defense, it is very possible (and I think probable) that they can significantly improve in their new system and under their new defensive coordinator. Maybe John O’Korn throws a couple of interceptions and makes a few mistakes. Maybe the five man secondary is better equipped to at least slow down Amara Darboh, Jehu Chesson and Jake Butt. IU’s defense wouldn’t need to lock down the Wolverines, just slow them down a little bit. If that happens, maybe the Hoosiers can, once again, get the Maize and Blue into a tight game. Perhaps this time, they’ll be able to break through, use previous experiences and the depth of their roster to finally prevail at the Big House.
FINAL ANALYSIS
The last time the Indiana Hoosiers won at Michigan Stadium was 1967. John Pont was the head coach, the Hoosiers finished 9-2 and went to the Rose Bowl, Ronald Reagan became the Governor of California, movies like Cool Hand Luke and The Graduate topped the box office and Lyndon Baines Johnson was the President of the United States. Yeah, it’s been a long, long time.
That being said, the “streak” factor is a non-important storyline for sites like ours to focus on. It likely doesn’t register with the current players and it definitely won’t have an impact on the actual game being played on the field. Still, the Wolverines will be double-digit favorites and advanced statistics models project this as Indiana’s most difficult test in 2016. IU will need to show massive improvement on defense to give themselves a chance and they’ll need to continue to have offensive success against another tough Michigan defense. I believe Tom Allen is bringing substantive change to IU’s defense and I trust this offense to remain as the one of the nation’s top attacks but knocking off one of the country’s top ten teams and many people’s pick to win the Big Ten East is likely a mountain too tall to climb.