Written By Nathan Comp

Ever since Moneyball, whenever analyzing sports you have to take a look inside the advanced statistics. Although it is a bit difficult week one, as historic data is a poor predictor of future success in college football because of constant roster turnover, we will do our best to both highlight some statistics from 2017 that stood out, and give some insight on numbers to watch that could tell the story for who winds up victorious Saturday night in Miami.

Yards Per Play

The 2017 season saw an impressive Indiana defense coupled with a poor offensive unit. The offense finished the season ranked 110th in yards per play, averaging only 4.8 (a drop from 5.4 in 2016). This number only got worse on the road, as Indiana averaged 4.5 yards per play while playing outside of Memorial Stadium. Florida International, on the other hand, flexed their offensive powers last season and finished the year ranked 59th at 5.5 yards per play. While playing at home, this number was a tick higher at 5.6. With new offensive units for both teams, seeing how these players start the season off in terms of yards per play will likely serve as an indicator for who puts more points on the board and ultimately comes away with a victory.

Havoc Plays

A havoc play in football is considered a play in which a defense either recorded a tackle for a loss, forced a fumble, or defended a pass (including both interceptions and passes broken up). Something to watch for Indiana this season will be whether their defense is able to keep up their high track record in the past couple seasons of continuing to wreak havoc on opposing offenses. Indiana ranked 26th last season in Defensive S&P+, with a 16.9% havoc rate (10.5% on their front seven, added together with 6.4% by their defensive backs). Florida International’s defense finished 2017 with the 93rd best defense, with a 13.8% havoc rate. Their many returning defensive lineman and improved front seven overall will make their havoc rate an interesting statistic to watch and will likely serve as an indicator for how Indiana’s offense performs.

Field Position

Field position is an aspect of the game that can often be overlooked in importance. However, having shorter fields for your offense and forcing the opponent’s offense to drive the length of the field often shows how a team will perform late in the game. The number I am going to highlight regarding field position last year for IU and FIU is the yards per possession. Indiana averaged nearly 6 less yards last season (26 to 31.81) per possession than did FIU. This meant IU tallied less first downs per possession (1.29 to 1.67) and again showcases how much better the FIU offense was in 2017 than Indiana’s. When Indiana is forced to punt, Haydon Whitehead must force the FIU offense to drive the length of the field, both giving the offense a longer break and the defense a larger margin of error.

Takeaways

Takeaways were Coach Allen’s biggest disappointment from a 2017 defensive unit that was stellar overall. After the 2016 defense forced 23 takeaways –13 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries—the 2017 unit forced 10 less, good for second-to-last in the conference. Takeaways are the perfect way to “cheat” the field position game and can swing the ever-important momentum factor in college football. Florida International proved better than Indiana at takeaways in 2017 tallying a total of 20—9 interceptions and 11 fumble recoveries. Takeaways have been a focus of Allen in practices during the spring and fall, so watching how the inexperienced defense is able to improve in this facet of the game will help predict Indiana’s success this season.

The Huddle

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