Numbers That Matter: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Written By Nick Holmes (@HoosierHolmes)

So it begins for the Hoosiers, ten straight showdowns with Power Five Opponents, this Saturday bringing to town upstart Wake Forest. This will be the second matchup in as many years between the two programs, schools historically mired in mediocrity, at best. However, both team’s boast undefeated records right now, the Demon Deacons with three wins and the Hoosiers with two of their own. Both team's know how important this game could become in late November; an out of conference victory that could make the all the difference in whether they are playing in late December or not.    
 
Both teams enter the game with question marks surrounding some keys members of their squad. Wake Forest will have to play without their dual-threat quarterback Kendall Hinton and running back Cade Carney. The Hoosiers are hopeful that senior stalwart Dan Feeney will be available, but the right guard will need to pass the concussion protocol before the team doctors give him the greenlight.
 
At this juncture in the season, paper and film review will do you little good in determining who will come out victorious on Saturday, especially considering that the Hoosiers have kept their offensive potential pretty well masked to this point. And with the Hinton missing the game, Indiana will have to game plan for John Wofford, a more traditional thrower who is still capable of moving the chains with his legs.
 
With all that being said, let’s take a look inside some of the keys stats that could be an indicator of how Saturday’s action might go. 

Third Down and Out

Indiana’s offense on third down so far this season has been absolutely abysmal, no other way to put it. Through two games Indiana has converted just eight of 28 attempts, or 28.6%. Nationally, that’s tied for 113 best out of 128 schools. Whether it’s because of poor play calling or the jimmies and joes, it’s something the team needs to get figured out quick before this lack of execution haunts them in a more competitive contest.
 
Wake Forest has fared considerably better on the decisive down, propped up by a 10 of 17 performance against the Delaware Blue Hens this past weekend. Overall on the season they are batting about 46.9%. Again, that percentage was bolstered by playing an FCS opponent, but sometimes just gaining that confidence that you will convert in key situations is as important as anything.
 
When it comes to third down defense, both teams find themselves in similar positions. Indiana only allows opponents to convert one in every three attempts while Wake Forest’s opponents get a first down on just 34.1% of their attempts. Keeping all this in mind, it looks like third down is advantage Demon Deacons.

 
What’s Mine is Mine and What’s Yours is Mine

Don’t be selfish, share with others, don’t steal; the adults in our lives make sure to instill these golden rules into our young, impressionable minds. However, don’t expect Coach Allen to preach a similar message, because in his mind, the football always belongs to his defense. Takeaways are at the center of Indiana’s defensive transformation, as the group has been responsible for creating six takeaways in just two games.
 
The Hoosiers offense has done an equally as good of job as placing a premium on not turning the ball over. Through two weeks Indiana has given the ball up just once, on a very questionable fumble by Devine Redding. Currently, the team ranks second overall in the nation with a 2.5 turnover margin per game.
 
Can the Hoosiers force the Demon Deacons into some poor throws and possibly putting the pigskin on the ground? Through three games they’ve turned it over four times, two of which came against Delaware.

All the Quarterback’s Men 

Richard Lagow has been exactly what the Indiana coaching staff thought he would be at this point. He’s made many of the right reads, made the easy throws, and not turned the ball over. However, he’s men, or offensive line, could make his job easier if they start providing a solid pocket to throw out of more consistently. It’s not that they’ve been bad, just not nearly as dominant as they were last fall. So far they have allowed six sacks in just two games. If you’re not good with math, that’s three per game, and only 18 teams giving up more per contest.
 
With the team breaking in new starters at both left tackle, center, and with the potential of Dan Feeney missing action on Saturday, Coach Frey’s group is still trying to replicate the cohesiveness that the offensive line had last fall. Their jobs become increasingly more difficult against Wake Forest, as they have racked up 10 sacks in just three games, good for 17th best in the country.

 Even more numbers that matter 

8 – The Hoosiers have won eight straight out of conference match ups, starting with their upset win over Missouri back in 2014
 
94 – The Demon Deacons defense gave up just 94 yards last week to Delaware. FCS team or not, keeping anyone under the century mark on offense is an incredible feat.
 
32 – Both the Hoosiers and Demon Deacons have an average time of possession around 32 minutes per game. Could ball control be the deciding factor on Saturday?
 
247.7 – It’s been said before by many other publications to this point, but Wake Forest brings with them an incredibly stout defense, giving up just 247.7 yards per game. Again, the number is a little skewed by their performance against the Blue Hens, but this will be a great opportunity for the Indiana offense to see how far they have come.
 
5 – Wake Forest does a pretty good job at not beating themselves, as they are penalized an average of five times per game, tied for 21st best in the country.
 
8.5 – While still a small sample size, the Hoosiers are getting penalized 8.5 times per game, 106 worst in the nation. Can they get out of their own way on Saturday?
 
2006 – The last time the Demon Deacons started out the season 4 and 0. In fact, Wake Forest actually won the first five games to start that season. This was the season they hit the ten win mark, culminating in an appearance in the Orange Bowl.
 
2009-10 – Last time Indiana had back to back seasons with a starting record of 3 and 0.
 
.900 – Wake Forest’s offense is far from a juggernaut, but when they make their way into the Red Zone, they do a good job of coming away with points. In 10 attempts, they’ve scored nine times, eight of which were touchdowns.
 
.625 – The Demon Deacons red zone defense is also stout, giving up just five scores in their opponent’s eight attempts. However, it is worth pointing out that all five scores were touchdowns.
 
.333 – While Indiana’s defense has allowed five scores out of six attempts when their opponents make it into the red zone, they have only allowed two touchdowns. Bogging their opponent’s drives down before they reach the endzone is a pleasant development.
 
22-26 – John Wolford, Wake Forest’s starting quarterback, has a career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 22 to 26. As mentioned above, the Indiana defense has shown to have a nose for the ball, picking off three passes in two games. Can the Hoosiers force Wolford into some tough throws leading to some more turnovers?