Mammoth Task Awaits Hoosiers in Ann Arbor

Written by: TJ Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)

Michigan Stadium, more commonly known as “The Big House”, has been a house of horrors for nearly all Big Ten teams. Indiana is certainly no exception. In fact, the Hoosiers haven’t won there since 1967 (a 27-20 IU victory) and they have not beaten the Wolverines at all since 1987. This Saturday at 3:30, the Indiana Hoosiers will try to stun the college football world, gain bowl eligibility and end the Michigan Wolverines hopes of making the College Football Playoff. It will be as tough a task as possible as Michigan has one of the country’s top defenses and what is generally considered a top 25 offense. They have a fringe Heisman Trophy candidate in do-everything weapon Jabrill Peppers and a rushing game that averages 236.3 yards per game. Despite all that, Indiana offensive lineman Jacob Bailey believes he and his teammates will be ready to battle their fourth top ten team of the season, a school record for top ten foes. 

“We get another shot to go up north and play another great, top ten team. We have a chance to redeem ourselves. We have a second chance, and those do not come around often in line,” Bailey said on Monday.

IU has good reason to believe they can compete with the nation’s elite. Just this season, they played Ohio State tough in Columbus, arguably outplayed Nebraska and fell just short and gave Penn State all they could handle. Alas, each of those contests ended in defeat and the Hoosiers find themselves at 5-5, still one win short of bowl eligibility. Playing in Michigan Stadium will be the toughest test yet but there are some reasons for hope. Michigan is coming off of their first loss and Iowa was able to lock down Michigan’s offense. In addition, quarterback Wilton Speight is likely out after breaking his collarbone late against the Hawkeyes. That means inexperienced back-up John O’Korn will get his first start of the season and IU’s improved defense might be able to force him into mistakes. The Wolverines will probably lean on their run game and short passes to big targets like Jake Butt, Jehu Chesson and Amara Darboh as they try and get O’Korn ready for their clash the next week against Ohio State. UM’s offense was dominant all season but they sputtered to the tune of just 2.8 rushing yards per carry last week against Iowa. They’ll look to return to form this Saturday and IU’s defense will need to be at its best, no matter who is under center for Michigan. If the Wolverines offense can find some rhythm, the Hoosiers will be in trouble because UM’s defense has been the stingiest in the country this season. They are allowing only 11 points per game and just 244.7 yards per game and half of Michigan’s opponents have failed to score more than a touchdown. 

“Defensively, they are very attack-oriented,” said IU head coach Kevin Wilson. “They talk a lot about pressure, but the pressure they put is just how hard they play every day. Whether they’re blitzing or not blitzing, whether challenging every throw, a lot of man-to-man coverages, bracket coverages and a front playing seven, eight, nine, 10 guys, linebackers pinning their ears back and getting after you.”

IU’s offense will present some challenges for Michigan’s dominant defense though. The Hoosiers have scored at least 30 points in each of the past three weeks and they have gained at least 450 yards in each of those contests. Quarterback Richard Lagow’s last two games have been two of his strongest and the Hoosiers have an outstanding group of wide receivers that will test one of the nation’s top secondary units. The two problems that have continually hampered the Hoosiers though will need to be fixed if IU is to have a shot at keeping it close on Saturday. First, they will need to take better care of the ball. IU turned the ball over five times against Penn State and four times against Rutgers and they are now minus-6 in turnover margin for the season while the Michigan Wolverines are plus-8 and have forced 16 on the season. The second is red zone offense. The Hoosiers are just 27 of 40 in red zone conversions, good for only 67.5%, last in the conference. The Michigan Wolverines defense is allowing teams to score on only 64.7% of red zone opportunities, the best defensive mark in the conference. 

If the Hoosiers are to defeat the Michigan Wolverines for the first time since 1987 and win in Ann Arbor for the first time since Lyndon Baines Johnson was President of the United States, they’ll need to play their best game of the season. Even that might not be enough if Michigan is able to clean up the mistakes they made in Iowa City and give a good performance. ESPN’s “Pick Center” technology gives IU just a 2.2% of ending the historic victory drought in Ann Arbor. Those are long odds, no doubt. But IU players and coaches know they are capable of at least competing with the nation’s elite. So, as Lloyd Christmas taught us, perhaps IU players will be able to look at those expert predictors and respond with confidence, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!”