Inside the Numbers: No. 24 Indiana Hoosiers at No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions

Image: Cam Koenig, Hoosier Huddle

Written by Andrew Walker

The #24 Indiana Hoosiers are 7-2 in an absolute heater of a year. Indiana’s season has been one to remember, especially in the wake of Mike Penix’s unfortunate progression through the season. A few games missed here, a few there, and finally out for the season is the epitome of brutality for a young talent fresh off his first missed season. Former QB1 for Indiana, Peyton Ramsey, stepped in when needed and balled out. Ramsey is now QB1 for the rest of the season for a really talented bowl eligible team. This Hoosier team hasn't subscribed to "what should've happened" after Penix went down. They've excelled.

On to Penn State. 

Indiana will travel to Happy Valley in the great state of Pennsylvania on Saturday to take on the Nittany Lions. Let’s take a look inside the numbers at some statistical advantages or disadvantages on each team. 

Red zone TD percentage

Indiana - 67%

Against any other team, I’d feel really confident about Indiana’s ability to basically convert a TD every two out of three tries. This isn’t just any other team the Hoosiers are facing, however. #9 Penn State is not a team to be messed with. Sure, they lost to Minnesota, but that sentence is no longer an ill-willed jeer. Minnesota is a great team this year, and the fact that Penn State made it a close game says as much about the quality of team the Nittany Lions are, just as much as the rest of their wins have. Indiana will need every bit of that statistically relevant 67% red zone TD rate in order to take down Penn State on Saturday. 

Penn State - 70%

The Nittany Lions offense isn’t a whole world better than Indiana’s. That’s a statistical fact. They don’t average that many more points than the Hoosiers, and they can’t convert red zone TD’s essentially any better than IU can. Penn State QB Sean Clifford has thrown 21 TDs and six picks on the year. Quite impressive numbers from the junior QB. Against Minnesota, however, the key to holding him down was turnovers. Clifford threw three interceptions against the Golden Gophers last weekend, and in turn, uncovered Penn State’s weakness. I’d expect the Hoosiers to emphasize the red zone interception opportunity this week in practice to see if they can hand Penn State their second consecutive loss. 

Rushing yards per game

Indiana - 138

There’s no secret what makes the Hoosier ground game work. Stevie Scott is an absolute force of nature for the Hoosiers, and continues to be an important reason for success for this Indiana football team. Scott and Co. average 138 yards on the ground, but against Penn State, this might be tough. Their opponents have only been able to average around 75 yards on the ground all year, so if Indiana wants to have an effective, balanced offense, they have to be effective and efficient on the ground. 

Penn State - 171

The Nittany Lions don’t have to worry about having their star running back put in work on the ground. They effectively have four reliable running backs that can get the job done. One of those just so happens to be QB Sean Clifford. Clifford averages 35 yards on the ground per game, and has been able to contribute three rushing TDs as well. Penn State’s ability to confuse the Hoosier defense as to who’s getting the ball on any given play might be a bit of an issue. 

QB Hurries/Sacks

Indiana - 23/20

Indiana’s ability to rush the passer has been a key part of the Hoosier defense this season. They might not have the highest amount of hurries or sacks in the Big Ten, but Indiana’s ability to change the course of a game at the time they need it the most has been spectacular this year. They might not have the most in total, but I’d argue that the amount of hurries and sacks they do have, came at the most important times. 

Penn State - 31/31

The Nittany Lions’ defensive line might as well be made up of robots. Pass rushing, vicious robots. 31 sacks is good for third in the Big Ten, and it just goes to show the talent of that Nittany Lion defensive line. For Indiana to come away victorious, the Hoosier offensive line has to be at an all time level. That offensive line has to allow zero sacks and zero hurries. Everything must go off without a hitch for the Hoosiers to be able to win.