Inside the Numbers: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Michigan Wolverines

Written by: Nate Comp (@NathanComp1)

Each game week, we will take a further look into the stats to preview Indiana’s upcoming matchup. It is homecoming week for the Hoosiers, and they will welcome the Michigan Wolverines to Bloomington. Indiana won the matchup last time in Bloomington 38-21 before falling to the Wolverines last year 29-7. Indiana has faced solid teams this season, but this will be the toughest test to date by far. The Wolverines enter the game ranked in the top five and off of a 2021 College Football Playoff berth.

11.6

The road will get no easier for the Indiana offense as they welcome to town one of the nation’s best defenses. The Hoosiers went just 2-for-15 on third down against Nebraska this past weekend, and that was against a defense that had struggled to stop anyone all year. Michigan rolls into town having allowed just 58 points in their 5 games this season (11.6 points per game), ranked 6th nationally in points allowed per game. Indiana ranks 99th, allowing 30.4 points per game, for reference. The Indiana offense, tempo or not, must be able to sustain drives.

“It's about staying on the field,” said Tom Allen on Monday. “It's not tempo. If you're three-and-out you're three-and-out, whether you're going fast or slow. It's executing. It's staying on the football field as an offense and driving the ball. And that to me [has been] the biggest issue.”

17 and 50

While the Indiana defense has been relatively solid against the run (69th nationally, allowing 142.6 yards per game), the formerly reliable pass defense has suffered. Indiana ranks 118th out of the 131 FBS schools in pass yards per game, allowing 277.8 yards through the air. To combat this, I recommend Indiana continue with the success they have shown when blitzing; if the pass rush cannot get home with four, it needs additional help. Fortunately, Indiana has two capable candidates: surprisingly enough, the Hoosiers have two players ranked in the top 50 in sacks nationally: Dasan McCullough (17th) and Noah Pierre (50th). 6.5 sacks leads the country, while McCullough and Pierre have 4 and 3, respectively.

3

While explosive plays are tracked in the advanced metrics, there almost needs to be a separate category for the “excruciating, back-breaking, explosive play” that completely demoralizes a defense. Saturday’s blocked punt and 75-yard Nebraska touchdown pass come to mind, both as plays that not only showed weakness in Indiana, but also entirely shifted the momentum and final outcome of the game. Unfortunately, Indiana would lead the conference in allowing these types of plays; there have been six plays of 70+ yards allowed in the Big Ten this season, and Indiana has allowed three of them.

“Defensively we gave up only five explosives the entire game,” said Allen. “But there were some big ones that cost us. We won the turnover margin; we won the explosive-play ratio, but we had some mental mistakes that were costly.”

Indiana must contain their defensive lapses, and not allow them to progress to the extreme.