Inside the Numbers: Indiana at Michigan State

By David Sugarman (@David_Sugarman2)

The dust has had time to settle from the overtime loss against Michigan on Saturday that was frustrating, infuriating, disappointing, encouraging and at times just confusing. As is always the case in the unforgiving Big Ten East though, Indiana must quickly move on and play another tough opponent in 5-1 #18 Michigan State. It’s time for our weekly dive into some stats that matter this week in Inside the Numbers.

5 - I’ve put a stat highlighting Indiana’s issues creating takeaways probably every week and I’m running out of creative ways to do it. Indiana has lost the turnover battle in five of six games this season. In four games they haven’t forced a turnover at all. Of their four takeaways this season, three were against Georgia Southern and with all due respect, it was Georgia Southern. Granted Indiana has had some turnovers wrongfully taken away, exhibit A the Rashard Fant interception against Michigan that was called back on a bogus pass interference penalty, but that’s the way things go sometimes. Indiana’s offense isn’t good enough to expect a lot of points without special teams and defensive help. The Hoosiers defense need to get back to one of their trademarks from last season and create some Tom Allen takeaways Saturday and through the second half of the season.

Sub-100 - For the second straight week Indiana will play a team from the state of Michigan with an excellent defense, especially when it comes to defending the run. Halfway through the season Michigan State has yet to give up a 100+ yard rushing game to a single player. Sitting at third in the Big Ten, they are a spot behind Michigan, giving up just over 93 yards on the ground per game. Peyton Ramsey was neutralized on the ground against Michigan and Morgan Ellison’s final stat line was misleading. One 31 yard carry accounted for nearly half of Ellison’s yards and without it he averaged under three yards a carry. Ramsey isn’t good enough yet to beat teams with his arm yet and will have to get back to using his mobility to his advantage and get more support from his running backs.

3rd - Third down defense has been a staple of success for both squads through the first half of the season. Respectively MSU and IU are ranked 15th and 16th in the nation in third down defense, allowing opponents to move the chains under 30 percent of the time. The difference lies in the third down offense. The Hoosiers are ranked 79th in the nation making 37.3 percent of their third down attempts. To put that in perspective, Rutgers and Illinois are both doing better on third down. Michigan State is somewhat better, converting at nearly a 42 percent clip. For Indiana to have success offensively and avoid a repeat of the high number of three and outs like they had versus Michigan, five in a row in the second half, they’ll need to establish a running game on the early downs and get into more third and manageable situations.

5 - After giving up nearly 300 yards on the ground against the Wolverines including 200 to Karan Higdon, IU may be faced this week with an even tougher task on the ground defensively. LJ Scott is coming off a monster game against Minnesota where he averaged nearly eight yards a carry for 194 yards and two touchdowns. Not only that, but the Spartans have five players on their roster that have gone for more than 100 yards total on the season, three of them scoring touchdowns. Indiana has been good defending the run game at times, like holding Penn State’s Saquon Barkley to 56 yards on 20 carries, but will be put to the test again this weekend with an army of skilled ball carriers coming towards them.

1 - Since a couple early blowouts and a twenty point loss to Notre Dame, each of Michigan State’s last three games have come down to one possession and they’ve won all three including two on the road, at Michigan and most recently at Minnesota. Indiana is 4-4 in their last eight games decided by one possession dating back to last season including the overtime loss against Michigan. This will be a tough road environment and could be another game that comes down to the wire. This is a game that Indiana could really use if they have aspirations of seven regular season wins and not to mention Tom Allen is still searching for his first Big Ten win as a head coach. Michigan State has proven to be poised in the fourth quarter and will feel confident in a close ball game late.