Hoosiers Get Love from Computers and Human Voters

Image: Sammy Jacobs, Hoosier Huddle

Image: Sammy Jacobs, Hoosier Huddle

Written by Evan McShane (@very_reasonable)

The computers like the Hoosiers. It's been clear for a few weeks now that Bill Connelly's SP+ views Indiana as a top-25 team. ESPN's Football Power Index has the Hoosiers ranked 37th overall. IU received 18 votes in the Coaches Poll, fifth most among teams outside the top-25. The Hoosiers also received four votes in the AP Top-25 Poll. Indiana has not been ranked in over 25 years so it's worth noting the Hoosiers are right on the cusp.

While rankings and polls are certainly flawed, Bill Connelly's analytical model has proven to be an efficient barometer over the past decade. In Connelly's own words, "In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system."

While the Coaches Poll and AP Top-25 are subject to emotional reaction, Connelly says, "SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

Following Indiana's big win on the road against Nebraska, the 6-2 Hoosiers are ranked as the 23rd best team in the nation according to SP+. IU has an SP+ rating of 14.5, meaning the Hoosiers are approximately two touchdowns better than the average FBS team. The advanced stats and metrics especially favor Indiana's offense.

Regardless of who is playing QB for the Hoosiers, Kalen DeBoer's offense has been more than impressive to start the season. IU has scored 30+ points in seven of their first eight games for the first time in school history. IU has scored 30+ points five games in a row, the sixth longest streak in the country. Per SP+, the Hoosiers have the 14th best offense in the nation, averaging 38.0 adjusted points-per-game.

The defense is giving up a shade under 24 adjusted points-per-game according to SP+, good enough for 42nd in the country. The special teams unit - led by senior kicker Logan Justus who is a perfect 10-for-10 on the year, and punter Haydon Whitehead - is graded as the 14th best in the country.

Will a win at home against Northwestern be enough to push Indiana into the Top-25 for the first time since September 20, 1994? Can the Hoosiers' strong standing in the SP+ help make their case for a warmer bowl game? Only time will tell, but for now, the computers think IU is a top-25 team. They'll need to play like one on Saturday night to advance to 7-2. So, pack The Rock, this team has earned it.