Hoosier Huddle's Big Ten Bowl Projections Nov. 21

Written By T.J. Inman

Big Ten Bowl Picks – November 21

CFP team(s) – Ohio State vs. Clemson (last week: Ohio State vs. Alabama)

The Ohio State Buckeyes survived a very stiff test from the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing and I won’t knock them for a close victory. After seeing Michigan’s offense flail for most of Saturday’s contest against the Hoosiers, I’m projecting Ohio State to win this Saturday in Columbus and I don’t think it will be particularly close. An impressive win against the Wolverines would probably be enough to make sure the Buckeyes aren’t the #4 seed so they would avoid the top-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide. I think Ohio State would be the #2 seed (their victories over Oklahoma and Wisconsin look better and better with each passing week) and ACC Champion Clemson would be the #3 seed and they’d likely face-off in Glendale in the Fiesta Bowl on December 31.

Rose Bowl – January 2 at 8:30 – Wisconsin vs. Colorado (last week: Wisconsin vs. Utah)

Colorado knocking off Washington State in impressive fashion and Utah surprisingly losing at home to Oregon has caused me to change my Rose Bowl projection for the PAC-12’s representative. Out with the Utes and in with the Buffaloes. On a personal note, I think it’s really cool to see a completely unfamiliar squad in Pasadena and either Utah or Colorado would represent that. I’m a sucker for tradition and I always watch the Rose Parade and I think the New Year’s Day broadcast of the Rose Bowl is about as pretty as sports can be (granted, this year’s schedule is different and I’m none too pleased about it!). USC is probably the best team in the PAC-12 right now but the Buffaloes are 9-2 (7-1) and a victory at home against Utah would give them the South title outright and the edge over the Trojans, despite USC winning the head-to-head matchup. I am still projecting Wisconsin as the Big Ten West champion and I think they’ll beat Penn State in the Big Ten Championship game to finish at 11-2. They would have a very compelling case to make the College Football Playoff as a conference champion but their win over LSU has been diminished as the Tigers continue to struggle and their best marks on their resume would be a win over PSU on a neutral field and close losses to Ohio State and Michigan. I think they’ll be left out and placed at #5 or #6 and settle for another Rose Bowl trip.

Capital One Orange Bowl – December 30 at 8:00 – Michigan vs. Louisville (last week: Michigan vs. Louisville)

The Louisville Cardinals saw their College Football Playoff hopes dashed last Thursday night as they were thrashed by the Houston Cougars. That being said, they are still very safe as a pick to go to the Orange Bowl. The highest non-playoff ACC team gets this spot and there really are no other contenders. The only things that could knock them out would be a loss to Kentucky this week or a loss by Clemson that would knock them out of the College Football Playoff and down into the Orange Bowl. As I wrote last week, the Big Ten will place a team in the Orange Bowl because the non-champion and non-Rose Bowl participant from the Big Ten is going to be ranked higher than anyone besides Alabama from the SEC. I think 10-2 Michigan will get the nod over 10-3 Penn State and the Wolverines will take on the Cardinals. If the Wolverines are blown out by the Buckeyes, they may fall well behind Penn State and the Nittany Lions would find themselves in South Florida.

Cotton Bowl – January 2 at Noon – Penn State vs. Western Michigan (last week: Penn State vs. Western Michigan)

I have no clue what to do with Penn State. I’m now projecting them to finish the regular season at 10-2 and as winners of the Big Ten East. I also think they will lose to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game. If they knock off the Badgers and have wins over both Ohio State and Wisconsin with losses at Michigan and Pittsburgh, do they get chosen for the Playoff? I doubt it and I’m guessing they’d end up in the Rose Bowl. However, we’ll project 10-3 with a loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game. The other conferences are kind of a mess and the Cotton Bowl has two “at-large” spots for its game. I guess it kind of makes perfect sense to reward the Nittany Lions with a New Year’s Six bowl game in Dallas against the unbeaten MAC champions, the Western Michigan Broncos. If this happens and the Nittany Lions get chosen as an “at-large” squad for a New Year’s Six bowl, there will be a domino effect throughout the rest of the Big Ten bowls. 

Outback Bowl – January 2 at 1:00 – Nebraska vs. Florida (last week: Nebraska vs. LSU)

Nebraska was without Tommy Armstrong but they impressively handled Maryland under the guidance of Ryker Fyfe and a strong rush defense to improve to 9-2 (6-2). They’ll need to win at Iowa and have Minnesota knock off Wisconsin in order to win the Big Ten West. That seems very unlikely given the Badgers current form but it’s a possibility. I’m projecting a win for the Huskers over the Hawkeyes but that will be a tough battle. A 10-2 record would be a terrific achievement for Nebraska in Mike Riley’s second season but I don’t think it will end in a New Year’s Six bowl due to the quality of others in the conference and the lack of marquee victories on Nebraska’s resume. The Outback Bowl is the top non-New Year’s Six game for the conference if an at-large B1G team is chosen for the Orange Bowl. In that case, which I see happening, the Big Ten forfeits a slot in the Capital One Bowl. The Huskers would likely see the SEC East Champion, the Florida Gators, in this contest. The Gators won at LSU this past Saturday and they will now close the season at Florida State in a game that doesn’t really matter for anything other than pride (unless the Gators could win in Tallahassee and then beat Alabama). 

Holiday Bowl – December 27 at 7:00 – Minnesota vs. Washington State (last week: Minnesota vs. Washington State)

As I wrote earlier, Penn State getting chosen for the Cotton Bowl has a domino effect for the rest of the Big Ten’s bowl slots. In short, Penn State taking an “at-large” slot basically moves every team below the Outback Bowl up one bowl (it doesn’t work exactly like that but, as far as I can figure, the Big Ten’s bowl tie-ins have to be filled by Big Ten teams so it is an apt way of thinking about it). That means Minnesota, whom I am projecting to finish at 8-4 by losing their finale to Wisconsin, moves from the Music City Bowl to the Holiday Bowl. The PAC-12 is tough to figure because they don’t have great tie-ins and their pecking order still has a long ways to go before it is decided. The Cougars are 8-3 (7-1) after getting beaten somewhat decisively at Colorado. They now host rival Washington with the winner taking the Apple Cup and the PAC-12 North. I’m projecting they lose to the Huskies and end up at 8-4. This would be a tremendous test for the Gophers but it’d be a fun game to see.

Music City Bowl – December 30 at 3:30 – Iowa vs. Georgia (last week: Iowa vs. Georgia)

The Iowa Hawkeyes followed up their shocking victory over Michigan with a comfortable win over Illinois to improve to 7-4. For me, the win over Michigan made them jump Northwestern in the bowl projections and end up in Nashville. The Big Ten hasn’t been to this bowl game since 2005 and the bowl’s new contract states that the Big Ten must be represented in this game three times by 2019. I think it’s time. Interestingly, the Hawkeyes have never played in the Music City Bowl and I think it’s a game their loyal fan-base would be pleased to travel to. The SEC standings are a mess and I’m not sure how to make any sense of it. There are a number of teams that could be in this slot: Arkansas, Kentucky, maybe even Auburn. I’m going with the Georgia Bulldogs though. They followed an upset of Auburn on Saturday with a win over Louisiana Lafayette. They now take on Georgia Tech with a chance to finish the season at 8-4 with great hope for the future. The Bulldogs haven’t played in this bowl game since 2001 so this would be a very fresh matchup for Nashville.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – December 28 at 2:00 – Northwestern vs. Pittsburgh (last week: Northwestern vs. Pittsburgh)

The Northwestern Wildcats and Minnesota Golden Gophers were supposed to play a very competitive game on Saturday but the Wildcats were disappointing and fell 29-12. They need to beat Illinois to reach bowl eligibility. The Illini have been very poor all conference season and I don’t think it’ll be a problem for Northwestern to top Illinois and get their sixth victory. The Pitt Panthers improved to 7-4 with a dominant win over Duke and they now host an awful Syracuse team to get to eight wins. If they improve to 8-4, it’s very possible they get snatched up by the Sun Bowl or the Belk Bowl. I’ll continue to project to the Pinstripe Bowl and this would be a pretty interesting matchup that I wouldn’t mind watching. 

Foster Farms Bowl – December 28 at 8:30 – IU vs. Utah (last week: IU vs. Colorado)

Indiana gave Michigan a scare before the Wolverines eventually made enough plays to win a competitive 20-10 decision in Ann Arbor on Saturday. The game followed a similar script for IU against top-notch opponents and they ultimately fell short, leaving them at 5-6 and needing to beat Purdue to go to back-to-back bowl games. I’ve projected the Hoosiers to the Foster Farms Bowl for weeks and I’m not changing now. I think they’ll beat the Boilermakers and finish the regular season at 6-6. The opponent is very likely to be a top-half team from the PAC-12. The question is, which one? It could be the red-hot USC Trojans but they are going to hammer Notre Dame and finish at 9-3 and I have a hard time thinking they won’t be snapped up by a New Year’s Six bowl. I have Washington in the College Football Playoff and I’ve moved Colorado to the Rose Bowl after they knocked off Washington State. Utah just lost to Oregon and I am projecting them to lose at Colorado this Saturday, dropping them to 8-4. I think they’ll fall to the Foster Farms Bowl in Santa Clara and be a heavy favorite against the Hoosiers.

Quick Lane Bowl – December 26 at 2:30 – Maryland vs. Georgia Tech (last week: Maryland vs. Georgia Tech)

Last week, I began this paragraph with the following: “The Maryland Terrapins are in complete free-fall mode”. That sentence is still very accurate. The Terrapins got blasted by Nebraska and they are now 5-6 (2-6) heading into the finale with Rutgers. Lorenzo Harrison is still suspended and the running game is weak without him. In the past three games, they’ve lost 59-3, 62-3 and 28-7. The Terrapins must come together and find a way to beat the worst team in the league. If they can get that done, they’ll get to take on the triple option of Georgia Tech! The Yellow Jackets are 7-4 after topping Virginia and I’m projecting them to finish at 7-5 with a season-finale loss to Georgia.  

Realistic Potential Bowl Destinations for IU:

There are realistically only a few destination possibilities remaining for the Hoosiers. The first is the Foster Farms Bowl against a heavily-favored PAC-12 opponent. The second appears to be the Quick Lane Bowl against what would likely be a similarly-skilled ACC team. The third would be the Heart of Dallas Bowl and that would probably only come into play if some surprises occurred in the New Year’s Six selections and that game would pit IU against a non-Power Five opponent.