Hoosier Huddle's Big Ten Bowl Projections (Nov. 14th)

Written By T.J. Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)

CFP team(s) – Ohio State vs. Alabama (last week: Michigan vs. Clemson)

Last Saturday’s results threw the seemingly straight-forward College Football Playoff picture into complete chaos. Washington lost to USC, Clemson was stunned at home by Pittsburgh and Michigan lost on the road to Iowa. The Penn State Nittany Lions survived Indiana and, if they win out and Ohio State knocks off Michigan in Columbus, the Nittany Lions will be Big Ten East champs. How would the committee value an 11-1 Ohio State (that now looks to be fully weaponized) without a division title? How would they value the winner of the Penn State-Wisconsin Big Ten title game? Obviously, these are guesses and last Saturday showed us yet again that we have no clue what’s coming every Saturday but I’m now projecting Ohio State at 11-1 and being placed as the fourth seed in the College Football Playoff. I believe this means they will be playing the #1 seeded Alabama Crimson Tide in the Peach Bowl on December 31. If that comes to fruition, it will be a titanic clash.

Rose Bowl – January 2 at 8:30 – Wisconsin vs. Utah (last week: Ohio State vs. Utah)

I’ve moved the Ohio State Buckeyes to the College Football Playoff so they obviously cannot play in the Rose Bowl. That slot will now go to the Big Ten Champion: the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin decimated Illinois and their defense is undoubtedly one of the best in the country. They are now 8-2 heading into games at Purdue and against Minnesota. I’m projecting their Big Ten Championship game opponent as Penn State and I think they’ll knock off the Nittany Lions to earn a trip to Pasadena, a place they are becoming regular visitors to. Washington’s loss to USC makes the opponent in this game a bit more difficult to pick. As of now, I think the Huskies will win out (which would mean victories over Arizona State, Washington State and probably Utah) and get selected as a one-loss conference champion for the playoff. That means PAC-12 South champion Utah would get the nod for the Rose Bowl. I think it’d be amazing to see a red-hot USC in this spot but they’ll need a couple of dominoes to fall in order for that to happen thanks to their early-season struggles. The Badgers could certainly nudge the Washington Huskies out of the College Football Playoff and move into a matchup against Alabama in the Peach Bowl.

Capital One Orange Bowl – December 30 at 8:00 – Michigan vs. Louisville (last week: Wisconsin vs. Louisville)

The Louisville Cardinals might be just one more upset loss (maybe Utah upsets Washington in the PAC-12 Championship or Washington State tops the Huskies in the Apple Cup, maybe Clemson gets beat in the ACC Championship, etc.). I still don’t think they are in the Playoff as of today and I’m sticking with slotting them into the Orange Bowl. As I wrote last week, the Big Ten will place a team in the Orange Bowl because the non-champion and non-Rose Bowl participant from the Big Ten is going to be ranked higher than anyone besides Alabama from the SEC. I think 10-2 Michigan will get the nod over 10-3 Penn State and the Wolverines will take on the Cardinals in a terrific matchup of “almost” College Football Playoff participants.

Cotton Bowl – January 2 at Noon – Penn State vs. Western Michigan

I have no clue what to do with Penn State. I’m now projecting them to finish the regular season at 10-2 and as winners of the Big Ten East. I also think they will lose to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game. If they knock off the Badgers and have wins over both Ohio State and Wisconsin with losses at Michigan and Pittsburgh (who just won at Clemson), do they get chosen for the Playoff? I doubt it and I’m guessing they’d end up in the Rose Bowl. However, we’ll project 10-3 with a loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game and I feel like my previous projection of the Holiday Bowl just doesn’t cut it for an East division champion. The other conferences are kind of a mess and the Cotton Bowl has two “at-large” spots for its game. I guess it kind of makes perfect sense to reward the Nittany Lions with a New Year’s Six bowl game in Dallas against the unbeaten MAC champions, the Western Michigan Broncos. If this happens and the Nittany Lions get chosen as an “at-large” squad for a New Year’s Six bowl, there will be a domino effect throughout the rest of the Big Ten bowls. 

Outback Bowl – January 2 at 1:00 – Nebraska vs. LSU (last week: Nebraska vs. Florida)

The Nebraska Cornhuskers survived a tough challenge from the Minnesota Golden Gophers to keep their faint division title hopes alive. They are now 8-2 (5-2) with games against Maryland and Iowa remaining. They’ll beat the Terrapins but the season-finale at rival Iowa will be a tough challenge. Assuming they win, they’ll finish the season at 10-2, a very successful second-season for Mike Riley. Because of the strength of the Big Ten this year, they are likely to be fifth in the bowl pecking order and the Outback Bowl looks to be the best they can hope for. The SEC is falling apart behind Alabama as Texas A&M is in the midst of their annual late season fade, Auburn just lost to the Silver Britches (sic ‘em doggies! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF!) and Florida looks likely to end up with five losses. LSU and A&M will battle in the season finale and I think the winner will get this game as a reward. The Outback Bowl isn’t what LSU was hoping for when the season began but it wouldn’t a bad finish for Ed Orgeron and the Tigers after a very poor start and the firing of Les Miles. 

Holiday Bowl – December 27 at 7:00 – Minnesota vs. Washington State (last week: Penn State vs. Washington State)

As I wrote earlier, Penn State getting chosen for the Cotton Bowl has a domino effect for the rest of the Big Ten’s bowl slots. In short, Penn State taking an “at-large” slot basically moves every team below the Outback Bowl up one bowl (it doesn’t work exactly like that but, as far as I can figure, the Big Ten’s bowl tie-ins have to be filled by Big Ten teams so it is an apt way of thinking about it). That means Minnesota, whom I am projecting to finish at 8-4 by splitting their final two games, moves from the Music City Bowl to the Holiday Bowl. The PAC-12 is about to get incredibly interesting as Washington, Washington State, Colorado and Utah each have matchups against each other in the final two games of the season. The Cougars are 8-2 (7-0) and they now travel to #12 Colorado before hosting rival Washington. I’m projecting they drop both of those games and end up at 8-4. This would be a tremendous test for the Gophers but it’d be a fun game to see.

Music City Bowl – December 30 at 3:30 – Iowa vs. Georgia (last week: Minnesota vs. Arkansas)

The Iowa Hawkeyes changed the script of the 2016 college football season with a shocking victory on a last-second field goal victory over the Michigan Wolverines. The victory was the sixth of the season for Iowa and they’ll definitely be going to a bowl game. It seems likely they’ll win at Illinois this Saturday before hosting Nebraska in the season finale. That’s a toss-up game but I’ve projected Nebraska as the winner all season so I suppose I’ll stick with it and say Iowa finishes at 7-5. They jump Northwestern in the bowl projections and end up in Nashville. The Big Ten hasn’t been to this bowl game since 2005 and the bowl’s new contract states that the Big Ten must be represented in this game three times by 2019. I think it’s time. Interestingly, the Hawkeyes have never played in the Music City Bowl and I think it’s a game their loyal fan-base would be pleased to travel to. The SEC standings are a mess and I’m not sure how to make any sense of it. There are a number of teams that could be in this slot: Arkansas, Kentucky, maybe even Auburn. I’m going with the Georgia Bulldogs though. They upset Auburn on Saturday and they are now 6-4 (4-4) and done with SEC play. They take on Louisiana Lafayette and Georgia Tech to close the season and I think they’ll win both of those games to finish at 8-4 with great hope for the future. The Bulldogs haven’t played in this bowl game since 2001 so this would be a very fresh matchup for Nashville.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – December 28 at 2:00 – Northwestern vs. Pittsburgh (last week: Northwestern vs. Pittsburgh)

The Northwestern Wildcats took care of business against the Purdue Boilermakers and they’ll become bowl eligible with a victory in the season finale against Illinois. The Pitt Panthers improved to 6-4 with their shocking upset of Clemson and they have a pair of winnable games to close the season. If they improve to 8-4, it’s very possible they get snatched up by the Sun Bowl or the Belk Bowl. I’ll continue to project to the Pinstripe Bowl and this would be a pretty interesting matchup that I wouldn’t mind watching. 

Foster Farms Bowl – December 28 at 8:30 – IU vs. Colorado (last week: Northwestern vs. Colorado)

The Indiana Hoosiers were knocked off by the Penn State Nittany Lions and they remain one win short of bowl eligibility. They’ll need to knock off either Michigan or Purdue to get that sixth victory. I have IU ahead of Maryland in projections and there are a lot of IU fans out West that would love the chance to see their Hoosiers in a bowl game in Santa Clara. As I wrote earlier, the PAC-12 is a jumbled mess and the South division won’t be decided until the season’s final week. Colorado gets the deciding games at home but I believe Utah is better and Washington State might be as well. The Buffaloes have a really terrific, veteran defense and they’d be a stiff test for whichever Big Ten foe they face. This would be a disappointment for the Buffaloes and their fans. They’ve had an outstanding season and they have a chance to win nine or ten games if they can win their final two games at home. This is one of the 25 best teams in the country but the PAC-12 bowl tie-ins are not very good. Arizona State would be a more appropriate opponent for the Hoosiers but, unless there is a surprise in selections, the opponent could be Colorado (or even USC). 

Quick Lane Bowl – December 26 at 2:30 – Maryland vs. Georgia Tech (last week: Iowa vs. Georgia Tech)

The Maryland Terrapins are in complete free-fall mode. In the past two weeks, they’ve been blitzed by Michigan and Ohio State by a combined score of 121-6. They now face the Nebraska Cornhuskers and I can’t see things turning around this week. Starting tailback Lorenzo Harrison has been suspended indefinitely and, if he doesn’t return, it’s hard to envision where the offense comes from. Their season-finale is against Rutgers and they’ll need a win in that game to reach bowl eligibility at the bottom of the conference’s bowl structure. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets knocked off Virginia Tech in Blacksburg to reach bowl eligibility with a 6-4 record. They have a potential 7th win against either Virginia or Georgia and they might be able to climb up to the Military Bowl or the Independence Bowl. For now, I’m projecting them to lose to Georgia and end up at 7-5 and in the Quick Lane Bowl as favorites against Maryland.

Heart of Dallas Bowl – December 27 at Noon – Army vs. Western Kentucky (last week: Maryland vs. Western Kentucky)

With Penn State being selected as a New Year’s Six representative in the Cotton Bowl, the conference will not have enough bowl eligible teams to fill their slots. I’m selecting Army as a replacement team but that’s a complete guess.

Realistic Potential Bowl Destinations for IU:

There are realistically only a few destination possibilities remaining for the Hoosiers. The first is the Foster Farms Bowl against a heavily-favored PAC-12 opponent. The second appears to be the Quick Lane Bowl against what would likely be a similarly-skilled ACC team. The third would be the Heart of Dallas Bowl and that would probably only come into play if some surprises occurred in the New Year’s Six selections and that game would pit IU against a non-Power Five opponent.