Hoosier Huddle Big Ten Bowl Projections

Written By T.J. Inman

CFP team(s) – Michigan vs. Clemson

The Michigan Wolverines won in East Lansing so I see no reason to change my projection of them as Big Ten Champions and a selection of the College Football Playoff committee. I have updated this matchup though thanks to Clemson’s victory at Florida State. I am guessing Michigan will end up as the #2 seed and the Tigers will end up as the #3 seed. That leaves Alabama as the #1 seed and the Washington Huskies as the #4 seed. 

Rose Bowl – January 2 at 8:30 – Ohio State vs. Utah

Proclamations of this being Urban Meyer’s “best team yet” likely won’t be heard much, if at all, anymore. The Buckeyes struggled against Indiana, survived at Wisconsin, lost at Penn State and then squeaked by Northwestern. Still, they are 7-1 and they now get a shot against #9 Nebraska in primetime in Columbus. The victor will be the favorite to land the Big Ten’s spot in the Rose Bowl, particularly if Michigan remains unbeaten. It is very possible the Colorado Buffaloes could somehow find themselves in this spot but I’m still projecting Utah as the conference’s representative. It would make the Rose Bowl a battle of the Big Ten and PAC-12’s second best teams. Colorado (6-2) hosts the Utah Utes on the final weekend of the regular season in what could be a matchup that determines the PAC-12 South title.

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl – December 31 at 11:00 – Wisconsin vs. Auburn

My “UT” Citrus joke cannot make a repeat performance after the Tennessee Volunteers fell at South Carolina and dropped off the radar of any major bowl game. Likely SEC East champ Florida would be a logical decision here but they played in the Citrus Bowl last season (against Michigan) and I don’t think they’ll return for the second consecutive year. That leaves me turning to the SEC West and the red-hot Auburn Tigers. Auburn is 6-2 after knocking off Ole Miss and dropping the Rebels to 3-5. The Tigers have three more games that are very likely “wins” before taking on Alabama in a massive Iron Bowl clash in Tuscaloosa. Since I have Alabama as the 1-seed in the CFP, I’m projecting a third loss for Auburn and a 9-3 record. That should be good enough for a Citrus Bowl berth but not good enough to put them in the Sugar Bowl (that likely goes to Texas A&M). Wisconsin’s win over Nebraska keeps them on pace to land at 10-2 with a third loss coming to Michigan in the Big Ten title game. They have a relatively soft schedule down the stretch (only at Northwestern this week is the least bit scary) and 10-3 Wisconsin against 9-3 Auburn is a solid matchup.

Outback Bowl – January 2 at 1:00 – Nebraska vs. Florida

I see no reason to change my projection for either Nebraska or Florida. The Huskers fought hard against Wisconsin but they ultimately fell to the Badgers and now must go to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes. If Wisconsin wins out and the Huskers lose to the Buckeyes this Saturday night, the Badgers win the Big Ten West. Assuming they finish 10-2, I think they’ll fall behind Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin in the pecking order and be right in line with Penn State (more on that in a minute). The Huskers played in a bowl game in California last season so I’m projecting they get sent to Florida for the Outback Bowl this time around instead of to the Holiday Bowl.

Holiday Bowl – December 27 at 7:00 - Penn State vs. Washington State

A win over Purdue doesn’t move the meter in bowl projections. It’s very possible they finish the season at 10-2. The toughest remaining road game is Indiana and the toughest remaining home contest is against Iowa. Penn State could quickly move up the pecking order if Ohio State drops a game against someone besides Michigan or if Wisconsin or Nebraska lose an unexpected game. The projected opponent for this game, the Washington State Cougars, is now 5-0 in the PAC-12 and they could pull off an upset of Washington and find themselves in position for a Rose Bowl bid but for now, I’m projecting this as a strong Holiday Bowl matchup and sending the Nittany Lions to California. It’s a bowl they haven’t played in since 1989 and I imagine they’d have great fan support in San Diego.

Music City Bowl – December 30 at 3:30 - Minnesota vs. Arkansas

The Golden Gophers are officially bowl-eligible! Congratulations to head coach Tracy Claeys and to any Gopher fans following our site or these projections. They hammered Illinois to improve to 6-2 (3-2) and they still have two potential wins on the schedule. I’m continuing to project wins over Purdue and Northwestern and losses at Nebraska and Wisconsin to put them at 8-4 on the season. The Music City Bowl remains as the projection because they are clearly behind Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska and Wisconsin and a narrow loss to Penn State (plus PSU’s softer finishing slate) puts them behind the Nittany Lions as well. The SEC has at least six bowl games that are all on the same “tier” so it makes projecting their teams mostly guesswork. Tennessee could end up a viable candidate and playing in Nashville would likely be an enticing proposition for the Music City Bowl ticket reps. LSU might make sense as well but they played in this bowl in 2014.

Arkansas and Minnesota have played each other in this bowl game before, way back in 2002. The Golden Gophers won 29-14 and kicker Dan Nystrom was named the game’s MVP. The Gophers beat Alabama in this game in 2004 and then lost a year later in 2005 to Virginia. They haven’t been back since so I think a return would be a well-attended and well-received event for Minnesota fans.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – December 28 at 2:00 - Maryland vs. Pittsburgh

Maryland remains one win from bowl eligibility after IU knocked them off last Saturday and it appears unlikely they’ll  be able to reach anything higher than six victories. I believe the Pinstripe Bowl in New York would love to have an East Coast matchup of Maryland vs. Pittsburgh. 

Foster Farms Bowl – December 28 at 8:30 – Northwestern vs. Colorado

After three straight victories, the Northwestern Wildcats fell in a tight contest at Ohio State. The loss did nothing to dissuade me from my feeling that the Wildcats are a pretty good football team and they’ll be better than their 6-6 or 7-5 record suggests. As I wrote earlier, the Buffaloes are in the thick of a very interesting PAC-12 South race and the conference’s bowl affiliations are very interesting. If the Rose Bowl elected not to take a PAC-12 squad, almost every bowl projection would go haywire. Assuming they do, the PAC-12’s number three squad would go to the Alamo Bowl and the number four squad would go to the Holiday Bowl. That leaves the fifth slot to the Foster Farms Bowl and I’m now projecting that will fall to the USC Trojans, a team I am guessing ends up at 8-4.

Quick Lane Bowl – December 26 at 2:30 – Iowa vs. North Carolina State

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 5-3 and they had a bye week last Saturday to try and figure out how to navigate their remaining schedule. Of their four games left, they’ll play four ranked teams (PSU, Michigan and Nebraska) and only Illinois appears to be a likely victory. If they follow the projections, the Hawkeyes will end up at 6-6 and it’s hard to imagine a destination better than this one.

Heart of Dallas Bowl – December 27 at Noon – Indiana vs. Western Kentucky

IU’s “must-have” win over the Maryland Terrapins keeps the Hoosiers bowl hopes intact. Their best case scenario is now 7-5 but that would require IU to beat Rutgers and Purdue and find a way to knock off Penn State. 6-6 is the most likely result and that would land the Hoosiers either in the Quick Lane Bowl or the Heart of Dallas Bowl. The Hilltoppers are now 6-3 after blowing up the Owls of Florida Atlantic 52-3 and they will probably go 9-3 and face Louisiana Tech in the C-USA title game. The winner of that game will probably choose to play in this game because it is the only C-USA bowl tie-in against a Power Five opponent.

Realistic Potential Bowl Destinations for IU:

IU’s critical victory over Maryland keeps the bowl hopes very alive for another week and the reemergence of the running game and an explosive offense makes optimism for the rest of the season very possible once again. I continue to project wins over Rutgers and Purdue and losses Penn State and Michigan making the final record 6-6. If that ends up being the case, the options are probably the Heart of Dallas Bowl, the Quick Lane Bowl against an ACC foe and possibly the Foster Farms Bowl if Northwestern slips up against Minnesota. A 7-5 record would make the Foster Farms Bowl the likeliest destination. A loss at Rutgers would definitely put a wrench into my projection. A note: there does not appear to be any other Big Ten teams capable of reaching six wins so we may see another five-win squad from the conference going to a bowl game.