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Written by T.J. Inman

Who: #10 Indiana (3-0) at Michigan State Spartans (1-2)

Where: Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, MI

When: Saturday, November 14 at Noon on ABC

Odds: -9 Indiana – Game lines provided by legal Indiana Sports Betting apps

Series History: The Big Ten East rivals have played 66 times with the first matchup coming in 1922. Indiana won the first three games in the series but it has largely been dominated by the Michigan State Spartans with 13 wins in 14 meetings beginning in 1950. IU has knocked off MSU only one time since 2006, a close victory in 2016.

What’s at Stake: Indiana is playing this game as a road favorite and a top ten team. For the first time in a very long time in this series, the pressure and weight of expectations are on the Hoosiers. IU is going for a 4-0 start that would send them to Columbus with the eyes of the college football universe on the Cream and Crimson. This is also a trophy game as the two sides compete annually for the Old Brass Spittoon. While it is certainly not a “COVID-compliant” travelling trophy, getting the Spittoon back in Bloomington would be a nice achievement in the midst of this historic start. Mel Tucker is in his first season at MSU and not much is expected. They beat Michigan, something that should keep any pressure off of Tucker for a while but will be looking to bounce back after getting shellacked by Iowa last week.

Things to Watch

1. Can IU’s Rush Defense Make MSU One-Dimensional?

The Indiana Hoosiers were dominant against the running game of Michigan. Actually, they have been quite good against the run in all three games. Michigan averaged less than one yard per carry last Saturday. Penn State’s running backs were held to 3.6 yards per carry and Rutgers had 5.6 on a limited number of runs. The bulk of the Scarlet Knights success came on a 37 yard run later in the game. Take that away and they were sub three yards per carry. The only player to consistently hurt the Hoosiers on the ground was PSU quarterback Sean Clifford. Bottom line, IU has been very strong against the run and Michigan State has struggled to run the ball well. Jordon Simmons has emerged as the Spartans top back but he is only averaging 3.6 yards per rush. Connor Heyward and Elijah Collins have struggled even worse. If IU can completely limit the rushing attack, it will force Rocky Lombardi to beat the Hoosiers secondary and I like IU’s chances in that matchup.

2. Continuing to Win the Takeaway Battle

Indiana had three takeaways against Penn State. They followed that up with three takeaways against Rutgers and then had two takeaways against Michigan. Through three games, IU is plus six in the turnover department. Michigan State had seven turnovers against Rutgers and three more last week against Iowa. The Spartans have been loose with the ball and the Indiana defense has been outstanding at taking advantage of opposition mistakes. If IU wins the takeaway battle on Saturday, they’ll feel really good about getting out with a victory.

3. Achieving Balance on Offense

Michigan State does not have any glaring weaknesses on defense but they don’t have the dominant unit they’ve had in the recent past. Both Iowa and Michigan ran the ball well on them and all three of their opponents have had some level of success throwing against them. With a potentially rainy contest in the forecast on Saturday, the Hoosiers will want to establish some balance and a complimentary attack. I think IU is better and more dangerous when they get Michael Penix going early and are aggressive with the downfield passing game. First, the Hoosiers have the weapons to hurt teams with that strategy. Second, it softens the defense and opens up running lanes for Stevie Scott and Sampson James. This was evident against Michigan and I think more of the same should be the plan for Saturday in East Lansing.

JULIET GAHAN’S PREGAME SHOW

Big Ten Betting Picks

In partnership with legal Indiana Sports Betting apps, this article will include a couple of Big Ten betting picks each week!

Iowa (-3.5) at Minnesota – Friday night at 7:00 on FS1

Both teams were bad out of the gate and both teams bounced back with victories last week. Iowa won in dominant fashion against Michigan State and I liked what I saw from the Hawkeyes. It was a complete performance against the Spartans and Iowa is the more balanced side. While I trust in Minnesota’s offense, their defense will be by far the worst unit on the field. In my opinion, Iowa is the better side and I like them to cover.

Illinois at Rutgers (-6.5) – Noon on BTN

Illinois is the worst team in the Big Ten. I am confident in saying that. I know it’s scary to take Rutgers as a favorite but the Scarlet Knights are not bad and I am counting on them to deliver the comfortable victory.