2017 First Glance: Illinois Fighting Illini
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Written By Alex Compton (@alexncompton)
We have hit Week Ten in our First Glance series, which means the season is nearly here. The Hoosiers will make the short trek over to Urbana-Champaign to play Lovie Smith’s Fighting Illini in November, and have won the last two games against Illinois, which were in 2012 and 2013.
Week Ten: Illinois Fighting Illini
Date & Time: Saturday, November 11th, TBA
Venue: Memorial Stadium (60,670)
TV: TBA
ILLINI AT A GLANCE
Head Coach: Lovie Smith
Entering his 2nd year as head coach and 2nd year at Illinois
Overall Record: 3-9
At Illinois: 3-9
Illini Last Season: 3-9 (2-7) Beat Murray State, Rutgers, Michigan State
ILLINI RETURNING LEADERS
Passing: Jeff George Jr. (40 pct. 470 yards, 4 TDs, 5 INTs)
Rushing: Kendrick Foster (126 att. 798 yards 5.7 YPC, 7 TDs)
Receiving: Malik Turner (48 rec. 712 yards, 14.8 YPR, 6 TD)
Tackles: LB Tre Watson (102 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 1 PBUs, 1 QBHs, 3 FF)
PRE-SEASON PREDICTIONS
Athlon’s: 7th in the Big Ten West
Lindy’s: 7th in the Big Ten West
Street & Smith’s: 7th in the Big Ten West
Phil Steele: 7th in the Big Ten West
IMPACT NEWCOMERS FOR THE ILLINI
1. Dwayne Lawson, QB- One of the most intriguing story-lines of Illinois’ summer ball will be whether or not potential community college quarterback Dwayne Lawson is able to qualify or not. He has expressed his intentions in playing for the Illini, and Lovie Smith is holding a scholarship for him should he be able to qualify. The former Virginia Tech QB would give Lovie a better option than Chayce Crouch and Jeff George Jr., but his availability is still unknown at this time.
2. Kendrick Green, DT- While Lovie Smith didn’t turn in the best recruiting class in his first season, he did a pretty solid job at keeping the local talent at home. Kendrick Green was the fifth-ranked player in the state in the 2016 class, and he should be able to play right away. The top four sack guys on the D-Line are gone for Illinois, which leaves many positions thin. On the inside, Jamal Milan and Kenyon Jackson will see a bunch of snaps, and Green should be able to work himself in that group before the season gets underway.
3. Louis Dorsey, TE- Dorsey was a guy that IU recruited hard and even had on campus for a visit, but ultimately he chose to play for the Illini. He’s a lanky 6’6” pass-catcher that could line up in the slot as well, which would cause all sorts of problems for most defenses. With a thin group at TE for the Illini this year, Dorsey should be playing right away.
WHY THE ILLINI WILL PICK UP A MUCH-NEEDED BIG TEN WIN OVER THE HOOSIERS
Illinois leads the all-time series with Indiana 45 to 23, and they have historically defended Memorial Stadium pretty well. There is some buzz around the program right now as they head into year two with Lovie at the helm, a new practice facility planned, and stadium upgrades on the way, and they are hoping to capitalize on that in 2017. They had a really rough year in 2016, but sometimes all you need is a fresh start and a new season to turn things around.
The offense for Illinois last year was all or nothing, and that could be the case again this year. Kendrick Foster is a home run back, and Malik Turner is much of the same on the outside at receiver. The recruiting class features some really talented guys, but most of them are deep ball threats as well. Getting some real production from the backup running backs Reggie Corbin and Mike Epstein will help the Illini balance the offense out a bit, and having Mikey Dudek healthy could make a huge difference for whichever quarterback ends up starting. He was one of the best players in the country as a true freshman in 2014, but his since torn his ACL twice and missed the 2015 and 2016 seasons. He is projected to be healthy by the time the season rolls around, but it is unclear how much work he will be doing over the summer and how much of an impact he’ll have after not playing in almost three years. IU’s secondary was prone to give up big plays at times last year, and the Illini could look to expose this aspect of what is a really strong secondary otherwise. If U of I connects on a few of these big plays early in the game, it may allow them to run the ball really effectively.
On the other side of the ball, playing on the road is always tough for an opposing team, and you never know what you may get. Richard Lagow seems ready to have a really great senior season, but if he can’t find the consistency for this game, you could have a lifeless offensive attack going up against a really good tackling unit. IU would then struggle to make big plays, and the defense would be on the field for long portions of the game. Throw in cold November weather in Illinois as well, and you could have a pretty sloppy game down in Champaign that the Illini walk away with.
WHY THE HOOSIERS WILL MAKE IT THREE IN A ROW OVER THE ILLINI
Simply put, Illinois doesn’t have that talented of a team for this season. They struggled mightily last year, and lost a lot of the production that they did have to graduation, transfer, or the NFL. IU will have one of the best defenses in the Big Ten next year, and an offense that will struggle to put chunk yardage plays together consistently will have big issues scoring on IU. If the D can limit some big plays from Illinois, the Fighting Illini should have a tough time getting to 20 points. That is assuming of course there aren’t any defensive scores, which brings me to my next point.
Illinois’ defense should be pretty susceptible to giving up some big numbers on the scoreboard this year, and IU has the chance to do just that. If Lagow can establish a rhythm early, IU’s superior O-Line should be able to carve out sizable holes for Devonte Williams and company all day long. The key on offense for Indiana will be to keep control of the ball and have some long drives. Keeping the defense off the field will be big, as they can really be aggressive when they are out on the field since they are fresh. A good game for Lagow should be one where he limits mistakes and just hits the open guy. He won’t need to make any big plays for IU in this game, the blend of skill all over the field should more than handle that for the team. As long as IU holds on to the ball and has some longer drives, it should be fairly smooth sailing on the road at Illinois.
FINAL ANALYSIS
While winning on the road is always tough, Indiana has much more talent than Illinois heading into 2017. Assuming the majority of key contributors stay healthy by this point in the season, IU would have to play one of its worst games of the year to not come out of Champaign with a victory. On paper this projects as a very, very winnable game for Indiana, but you play the games for a reason. IU’s defense should overwhelm an inconsistent offense, and a balanced attack on the other side should prove too much to handle for a young Illini defense. I think IU takes this one 31-14.