2017 Big Ten Bowl Projections

Written By: TJ Inman (@TJHoosierHuddle)

As of October 31, 2017

After a very successful first year of doing bowl projections, we are back at it in 2017 to project each bowl matchup involving a Big Ten team. Most importantly, we’ll be projecting where we believe the Indiana Hoosiers will end up. Keep in mind, these are projections and it’s my best guess as to where teams end up at the end of the season, not where they might go if bowls were selected today.

College Football Playoff at the Rose Bowl - Monday, January 1 at 5:00 pm Ohio State vs. Clemson

What a game. For four weeks, I’ve been projecting the Ohio State Buckeyes in this spot. That projection was in real jeopardy on Saturday afternoon as the Buckeyes trailed PSU and appeared to be headed for a second loss. However, J.T. Barrett rose to the occasion and sliced through the Penn State defense, leading OSU to a come-from-behind victory. If they beat Michigan and Wisconsin and finish the season at 12-1 (with 11 straight wins), I see no way they don’t go to Pasadena. That being said, what if Oklahoma goes 12-1 as well? Would they both make it in? Would OSU be left out as a result of a head-to-head loss to the Sooners? I don’t think it’ll matter as Oklahoma doesn’t look like a team that will run the table but it’s a fun hypothetical to consider. I truly have no clue what to do with the slot belonging to OSU’s opponent. I’m giving them Clemson because I think the Tigers can run the table if Kelly Bryant is healthy and there’s no way a 12-1 Clemson doesn’t make it.

Orange Bowl – Penn State vs. Miami – December 30 at 8 pm

Wisconsin is sitting in great position at 7-0 and number five but I think Penn State will be 11-1 and the top-ranked non-playoff team in the Big Ten or the SEC. That means the Nittany Lions will go to the Orange Bowl and plays the highest ranked non-playoff ACC team. I’m projecting that to be the Miami Hurricanes. Here’s what I wrote last week: “One very possible scenario: PSU loses a close game at Ohio State, Ohio State wins out and wins the East, PSU finishes 11-1, the Big 12 has no unbeaten teams if TCU loses once and the committee gives the Nittany Lions the fourth seed in the playoffs.” Well…TCU lost and the Nittany Lions barely lost in Columbus. However, let’s say PSU does win out. What would their resume have on it that is all that impressive? For instance, would a one-loss/non-division champion PSU be taken ahead of a one-loss Notre Dame? No way.

Fiesta Bowl – Wisconsin vs. Washington - December 30 at 4 pm –

The Fiesta Bowl will be filled by two at-large teams chosen by the committee. TCU’s loss to Iowa State drops them from this spot and I am now projecting a “Rose Bowl” type matchup in the desert. The Badgers project to be 12-1 but their resume just won’t have the kind of firepower to contend for a playoff spot so if they are to get one, they’ll need to be unbeaten. With one loss, they could go to the Cotton Bowl, Peach Bowl or the Fiesta Bowl. The projection here continues to be the Fiesta Bowl and the opponent is now listed as Washington.

Outback Bowl – Northwestern vs. Mississippi State – January 1 at noon

The Citrus Bowl has an ACC/Big Ten option. Since I have the second-placed Big Ten team (PSU) being ranked higher than the second-ranked SEC team or Notre Dame, the Big Ten gets the Orange. This means the first non-New Year’s Six game for the conference is the Outback Bowl. Things get really dicey here as the Big Ten has, in my opinion, a “Big Three” followed by a wide gulf and then the rest of the league. This matchup has previously been listed as the Michigan State Spartans against Texas A&M. However, both teams took losses last week and I am sliding the rising teams into their spots. Northwestern has won three straight games and Pat Fitzgerald has them playing some terrific football. They now play at Nebraska before hosting Purdue and Minnesota and then playing Illinois. Eight wins seems to be the floor and nine wins is very much a possibility. Mississippi State hammered Texas A&M and they have three straight blowout wins to move to 6-2. The Bulldogs play UMass before welcoming Alabama to Starkville on November 11. I think they end up with nine wins. Mississippi State is a really fun team to watch and I think this would be a very cool matchup.

TaxSlayer Bowl – Michigan State vs. Kentucky – December 30 at noon

Northwestern was projected here but they have been bumped up to the Outback Bowl. Despite a loss to the Wildcats and upcoming games against Penn State and Ohio State, the Spartans should reach eight wins. An 8-4 record with a win over Michigan will have them slotted into the TaxSlayer Bowl and I’m keeping Kentucky here as the opponent. UK is currently 6-2 and they’ll be favored in three of their final four games. If they get to eight or nine wins, I think they’ll be taking on the Spartans.

Music City Bowl – Iowa vs. South Carolina – December 29 at 4:30

This was my projection last week and I’m sticking with it. South Carolina is 6-2 and having a terrific season behind Jake Bentley. They play at Georgia this week and close the season versus Clemson but they should get two wins against Wofford and Florida to get them to 8-4. The Iowa Hawkeyes won unconvincingly against Minnesota but they are now 5-3 with games remaining against Purdue and Nebraska. If they are 7-5, they’ll be in Nashville and I think it would ultimately be a sufficient season for their fans.

Holiday Bowl – Michigan vs. Stanford – December 28 at 9:00

This matchup makes all the sense in the world. I am projecting the Wolverines at 8-4 (losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State still coming). While they may slot ahead of Purdue given their win over the Boilermakers, I think they’d prefer to head out west as opposed to back to Florida for another ho-hum late December bowl in Jacksonville. The narrative in this game would be obvious: Harbaugh versus Shaw, Harbaugh versus the program he helped rise to prominence, Bryce Love versus the Wolverine defense. Neither team looks likely to have the kind of season they dreamed of but this would be a fun finish for both of them. Stanford is rounding into form and they may still sneak into the PAC-12 title game but their schedule is tough the rest of the way.

Foster Farms Bowl – TBD – December 27 at 8:30

Pinstripe Bowl - TBD – December 27 at 5:15

Quick Lane Bowl – TBD

Let’s look at the current three and four win Big Ten teams: Nebraska, Maryland and Minnesota are 4-4. IU, Purdue and Rutgers are 3-5. The Huskers have the best chance to reach six wins as they play Minnesota and have home games against Northwestern and Iowa. That being said, I think they end up with five. Maryland has Rutgers but then finishes with a tough stretch that will leave them at 5-7 as well. Purdue will get win number four against Illinois but they’ll need to upset Northwestern or Iowa to have a chance at six. Minnesota stinks and I see no way they get two more wins. Rutgers won’t be winning three more games. That leaves our Hoosiers. They play against Wisconsin before taking on Illinois, Rutgers and Purdue. Can IU get to 6-6? Sure they can. They’ll be favored against Illinois and Rutgers and the Purdue game will likely be a toss-up. That being said, I have no confidence in this team finding a way to win three straight games. Particularly when they are as beat up and battered as they currently are. So, it is with no joy that I must remove the Hoosiers from the bowl projections. I’m not saying they can’t get to six but it’s just blind optimism to expect it at this point.