(This could easily be a good, bad, and the ugly thread.)
Basic paradigm shift: Whereas once we had the rich, the merchant/professional class (including politicians), and the workers, we are already transforming into the creators/owners, the executives, the AI-literate professionals, and the vast ignorant class.
The good: Optimization. In a sense contrary to above assertions about AI not replacing human interaction, AI optimization will pre-empt much of the current need for human interaction. For example, taxation will be exactly codified and completely automated, so no need for tax accountants, tax lawyers, or even tax lawsuits.
Human diet will be optimized, not leading to Soylent Green, but leading to vast automated algae plantations, requiring very little hands-on work. Both starvation and McDonalds will be virtually eliminated from the planet.
The bad: Ignorance. The knowledge gap between the creators and the consumers is already unbridgeable and on its way to unfathomable as AI deskills people’s ability to actually know (as opposed to asking and believing AI).
Unemployment. The need for manual labor will decrease beyond current comprehension. Consumption will decrease considerably as the creator class limits the choice of the ignorant class to primarily entertainment options, the simplest way to control people. In short, the ignorant will eat their algae burgers and watch their boob tubes.
The ugly: Unrest. The transition will be marked by attempts to control various factors of production and control and by attempts to rebel. Eventually this will be quashed by the creator class controlling unimaginably superior weapons that don’t even need to kill to win.
On a political level, there will be attempts to transform society into some sort of egalitarian or socialist form of economy and government. This will likewise be quashed and eventually we will have an aristocracy of the creators with everyone else begging for anything and everything.
Conclusion: Don’t be one of the ignorant.
Or, alternatively, massive population decline. Which is likely preferable. Having a bunch of kids will (finally) be seen for what it is - hubris, wasteful, egocentric, abusive, and resource draining (from a communicty perspective). Our carbon footprints will be currency both socially and literally. We'll be penalized by the machines for engaging in wasteful behaviors that drain the society around us. The end of individualism. All for more profit. Yay.
@bradstevens lol
Yes, quite grim for the ignorant at first, unable to satisfy their need for potato chips, but some Coors Light might be on the menu if the creator class concludes it serves controlling the masses. Furthermore, they won’t have to work, they won’t have obesity troubles, they won’t be immoral because that can easily be controlled out of their behavior as well. They will be quite passive and satisfied, but not catatonic.
Note that this is an optimistic scenario. Based on geeks and nerds taking control of the creator class. if jocks, MBAs, or lawyers were to take control of the creator class, which is virtually inconceivable from a logical point of view, then the ignorant class would be slaves of one sort or another.
@bradstevens lol
Yes, quite grim for the ignorant at first, unable to satisfy their need for potato chips, but some Coors Light might be on the menu if the creator class concludes it serves controlling the masses. Furthermore, they won’t have to work, they won’t have obesity troubles, they won’t be immoral because that can easily be controlled out of their behavior as well. They will be quite passive and satisfied, but not catatonic.
Note that this is an optimistic scenario. Based on geeks and nerds taking control of the creator class. if jocks, MBAs, or lawyers were to take control of the creator class, which is virtually inconceivable from a logical point of view, then the ignorant class would be slaves of one sort or another.
You call them the "ignorant" but they just aren't able to use AI right? Those ignorant might actually turn out to gain far more practical knowledge which could be much more important then properly relaying a prompt to a machine.
I think many of the ignorant will opt out for a different lifestyle. More rural and less dependent on technology. They'll still use technology (much like we do today) but they won't allow their entire life to be run or organized it. What does this look like? I have no idea. Perhaps communal living? 100 years from now, who knows?
@bradstevens Btw, great thread! First time in a long time we’ve had a thread that engenders new ideas rather than rehashing the same old same old.
In theory AI should make life a lot easier. It should cut the amount of work that we as humans need to do to survive down drastically. The question is given that there will likely be a lot less work available what do we do with the people that cannot find enough work to support themselves? It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out over the next decade or so.
I think in order to maintain our capitalist system, we will be forced to implement some version of UBI. There will be very few opportunities for social mobility, so we will end up with a small elite capital class and a vast permanent welfare class.
Yeah, I wasn’t sure where to go on the population aspect. I’ve read that we could feed far more people with algae so I went with that.(This could easily be a good, bad, and the ugly thread.)
Basic paradigm shift: Whereas once we had the rich, the merchant/professional class (including politicians), and the workers, we are already transforming into the creators/owners, the executives, the AI-literate professionals, and the vast ignorant class.
The good: Optimization. In a sense contrary to above assertions about AI not replacing human interaction, AI optimization will pre-empt much of the current need for human interaction. For example, taxation will be exactly codified and completely automated, so no need for tax accountants, tax lawyers, or even tax lawsuits.
Human diet will be optimized, not leading to Soylent Green, but leading to vast automated algae plantations, requiring very little hands-on work. Both starvation and McDonalds will be virtually eliminated from the planet.
The bad: Ignorance. The knowledge gap between the creators and the consumers is already unbridgeable and on its way to unfathomable as AI deskills people’s ability to actually know (as opposed to asking and believing AI).
Unemployment. The need for manual labor will decrease beyond current comprehension. Consumption will decrease considerably as the creator class limits the choice of the ignorant class to primarily entertainment options, the simplest way to control people. In short, the ignorant will eat their algae burgers and watch their boob tubes.
The ugly: Unrest. The transition will be marked by attempts to control various factors of production and control and by attempts to rebel. Eventually this will be quashed by the creator class controlling unimaginably superior weapons that don’t even need to kill to win.
On a political level, there will be attempts to transform society into some sort of egalitarian or socialist form of economy and government. This will likewise be quashed and eventually we will have an aristocracy of the creators with everyone else begging for anything and everything.
Conclusion: Don’t be one of the ignorant.
Or, alternatively, massive population decline. Which is likely preferable. Having a bunch of kids will (finally) be seen for what it is - hubris, wasteful, egocentric, abusive, and resource draining (from a communicty perspective). Our carbon footprints will be currency both socially and literally. We'll be penalized by the machines for engaging in wasteful behaviors that drain the society around us. The end of individualism. All for more profit. Yay.
Incidentally, I agree with COH on the notion that there will always be people controlling the machines. That’s where the creator class comes in. That’s really the paradigm shift that one has to wrap his head around in my scenario. Yes machines will be powerful enough to control people, but not people in the creator class. In other words, the creator class will have the ability to control everybody, not like puppets on a string, but more in terms of framing the dhape of their lives.
@co-hoosier You couldn't be more wrong. Name a major revolution led by a member of the "dirty jobs" class.
Compare with American Revolutionary war leaders, leaders of the French Revolution, and leaders of the Bolsheviks. Lenin? law degree. Trotsky? college drop out who studied engineering and math. Castro? Law student. Guevera? medical student.
I dunno. I think you answer the question when you refer to American Revolutionary War leaders. I don’t look at the laptop mob as leaders.
I tend to see intelligence, artificial or human-powered, as a commodity in the supply chain of the production of goods and services. For me, artificial intelligence is information to be gleaned from massive amounts of data. But artificial intelligence will always lack judgment and all that judgment implies when solving problems. Intelligence is like energy, labor and capital. Artificial intelligence will produce important information faster, but it will also produce gobs of unimportant information.
I think in order to maintain our capitalist system, we will be forced to implement some version of UBI. There will be very few opportunities for social mobility, so we will end up with a small elite capital class and a vast permanent welfare class.
We have already lost a lot of good coding jobs overseas, soon what is left will be lost to AI. It is already decent at writing code, it is going to keep improving. Many other professions are going to go the way of the dodo. Without something like UBI, eventually a dystopian future will implement something far worse.
Our future?
I think in order to maintain our capitalist system, we will be forced to implement some version of UBI. There will be very few opportunities for social mobility, so we will end up with a small elite capital class and a vast permanent welfare class.
We have already lost a lot of good coding jobs overseas, soon what is left will be lost to AI. It is already decent at writing code, it is going to keep improving. Many other professions are going to go the way of the dodo. Without something like UBI, eventually a dystopian future will implement something far worse.
I don't think people appreciate how big of a deal it is that AI is good at coding. At a certain level, that means AI becomes capable of improving itself even better then we can. It becomes effectively independent at that point. Any restrictions are only the ones we artificially impose, which we absolutely need to do, but which we will also absolutely fuck up.
It’s kind of scary how good the AI is getting though. Elon says Grok 4 operates at a PHD level. Said he’s able to run although the most complex problems he worked on from his materials science and engineering days and immediately get the correct answer almost every time. Some jobs will definitely go away.
That's both awesome and terrifying at the same time.
At this point AI, or at least the version most of us have, is more like an advanced search engine in how it aggregates & presents data or answers questions. I suspect advanced versions in development or used by gov’ts & military(Skynet) are “thinking” more independently, & are not just simplifying finding answers. imo when it will truly become terrifying is when it can solve problems we have not been able to on our own.
It’s kind of scary how good the AI is getting though. Elon says Grok 4 operates at a PHD level. Said he’s able to run although the most complex problems he worked on from his materials science and engineering days and immediately get the correct answer almost every time. Some jobs will definitely go away.
That's both awesome and terrifying at the same time.
At this point AI, or at least the version most of us have, is more like an advanced search engine in how it aggregates & presents data or answers questions. I suspect advanced versions in development or used by gov’ts & military(Skynet) are “thinking” more independently, & are not just simplifying finding answers. imo when it will truly become terrifying is when it can solve problems we have not been able to on our own.
This is a good point. We will know AI has truly arrived and has taken over the world from us when it, say, solves P/NP or something like that.
@larsiu Damn, bruh, you're that cynical about kids? Best thing in my life is my kids. Best decision I ever made.
I think many of the ignorant will opt out for a different lifestyle. More rural and less dependent on technology. They’ll still use technology (much like we do today) but they won’t allow their entire life to be run or organized it. What does this look like? I have no idea. Perhaps communal living? 100 years from now, who knows?
#FutureAmish