They would or we would. Invasions by sea are still difficult.@bradstevens You think Taiwan votes themselves back to being part of China? That's a really long game to play. I think (unpopular opinion likely) that China becomes less authoritarian over the next generation or so. Possibly to a point where the CCP assume more liberal democratic values. Not full on democracy but something much different that what we see today.
But, then again, if our current adventureousness becomes cowboyish, I don't see why they wouldn't just take it. Do you think Taiwan would scuttle the factories?
If you don't have the risk of nationalization. Which you have to worry about in many different parts of the world.Will be interesting to see how this goes.
Why rebuilding Venezuela's oilfields won't be easy or cheap after Maduro capture
Whats the gist of this link? (Behind a paywall).
I’ve always thought that investing in petroleum and infrastructure was very safe and lucrative financial bet providing you have responsible operators.
Oil prices are at their lowest since pre 2022. I wonder how likely oil companies are to make incredibly large investments right now?Will be interesting to see how this goes.
Why rebuilding Venezuela's oilfields won't be easy or cheap after Maduro capture
Whats the gist of this link? (Behind a paywall).
I’ve always thought that investing in petroleum and infrastructure was very safe and lucrative financial bet providing you have responsible operators.
Investment vision looks 36 months in the future, not at today $.
The acquisition process takes longer than a minute. If you don't "look" today, you have no product to sell in 12-18 months.
If men were any more stupid, we would have breed for the extinction of women. Proof yet again that WE are the best thing they have going for them.
You seem to be blocked a lot. I don't pay a dime and it's not behind a paywall for me:Will be interesting to see how this goes.
Why rebuilding Venezuela's oilfields won't be easy or cheap after Maduro capture
Whats the gist of this link? (Behind a paywall).
I’ve always thought that investing in petroleum and infrastructure was very safe and lucrative financial bet providing you have responsible operators.
Nobody knows exactly how much it will cost to rebuild Venezuela's broken-down oilfields, but everyone agrees it's a lot — and there's no guarantee that U.S. companies will be chomping at the bit.
Why it matters: "There is no quick and easy solution to the problems that accumulated over a quarter century," Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov said in a note.
The big picture: Venezuela's crude output has dwindled to well under one million barrels per day after years of underinvestment, mismanagement, and sanctions — a far cry from around 3.5 mbd in the late 1990s.
State of play: Don't expect a huge boost unless and until there's a secure operating environment, clear fiscal regime, an easing of sanctions and more.
- Some production could be revived relatively quickly by growing output from existing and still-operating wells, analysts say.
What they're saying: "I think that the low-hanging fruit could probably bring another half million barrels per day to the market from Venezuela," Center for Strategic & International Studies oil scholar Clayton Seigle said at a briefing Monday.
- He sees a one- to two-year time frame and steps like replacing well casings, subsurface stimulation to free up trapped oil and gas to flow more freely for extraction, mechanical pressure increases, and more.
President Trump told NBC News on Monday that the U.S. may subsidize an effort by oil companies to rebuild the country's energy infrastructure — a project he said could take less than 18 months.
- "I think we can do it in less time than that, but it'll be a lot of money," he said. "A tremendous amount of money will have to be spent, and the oil companies will spend it, and then they'll get reimbursed by us or through revenue."
Yes, but: Getting output back to former highs is a vastly heavier and time-consuming lift, Seigle and others note.
- Think investment in electricity, pipelines and other "midstream" infrastructure, and new and upgraded plants that ready Venezuela's heavy oil for refining.
By the numbers: Researchers with Columbia University's energy think tank estimate that reaching around 2.5 mbd would take $80 billion to $90 billion of investment in oil infrastructure over six or seven years.
- A new Rystad Energy analysis estimates an all-in cost of $183 billion needed to get north of 3 mbd over 15 years, split between state-owned PDVSA, national spending and private operators.
What we're watching: Whether U.S. producers — the ones with the balance sheets and know-how to operate there — confirm Trump officials' claims that they want in.
- Modest prices and opportunities elsewhere are headwinds.
- But a new Wood Mackenzie note argues that oil majors and state-owned giants will still find Venezuela tantalizing, with proximity to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries an added attraction.
@joe_hoopsier oh I get that. But crude prices have been falling consistently for 3-4 years now. Producing even more oil for refinement isn't going to raise the price of oil. That's a lot of investment for an ever slimming margin.
Are we going to defend Taiwan when China inevitably invades. I suspect we (China and the US) will come to some kind of treaty to still get chips and shit while handing the island over to China.Special forces have boarded Bella 1 tanker in the North Sea.
China will not just walk in and take Taiwan. They will put up a big fight. Does Xi want that initial embarrassment? That’s a big issue in that part of the world
@joe_hoopsier oh I get that. But crude prices have been falling consistently for 3-4 years now. Producing even more oil for refinement isn't going to raise the price of oil. That's a lot of investment for an ever slimming margin.
As I work through this.
Is the market 100% saturated? Are their opportunities to sell more, even at a lower margin? This is a question, I simply don't know.
There are times you sell more volume at lower margins, simply to bridge the gap for when you can use Economies of Scale and reverse that approach.
Just throwing shit out there. I respect the hell out of you. Well mostly ! 
If men were any more stupid, we would have breed for the extinction of women. Proof yet again that WE are the best thing they have going for them.
Taiwan, without question, will lose without US involvement. Defending Taiwan if China really wants it would lead to a more htan regional conflict. I don't think we'll defend Taiwan.Are we going to defend Taiwan when China inevitably invades. I suspect we (China and the US) will come to some kind of treaty to still get chips and shit while handing the island over to China.Special forces have boarded Bella 1 tanker in the North Sea.
China will not just walk in and take Taiwan. They will put up a big fight. Does Xi want that initial embarrassment? That’s a big issue in that part of the world
@joe_hoopsier Even more fun - Venezuela is part of OPEC. THe US isn't. Can the US create a market big enough to further pressure OPEC? Do we want to.
I just want to know how to profit from this shit at this point in my life.
Taiwan, without question, will lose without US involvement. Defending Taiwan if China really wants it would lead to a more htan regional conflict. I don't think we'll defend Taiwan.Are we going to defend Taiwan when China inevitably invades. I suspect we (China and the US) will come to some kind of treaty to still get chips and shit while handing the island over to China.Special forces have boarded Bella 1 tanker in the North Sea.
China will not just walk in and take Taiwan. They will put up a big fight. Does Xi want that initial embarrassment? That’s a big issue in that part of the world
I don’t so either but I also think China will initially take a lot of losses
@larsiu Next Gen Black on Black Defender. Duh. Thank you President Trump!
I just want to know how to profit from this shit at this point in my life.
Ball bearings. It's all ball bearings nowadays. Invest in a manufacturer. 30-weight is the best.