Trying to predict the future will always make one look foolish.
Particularly in short term... And I consider short term as like 5 years
I think it's going to be difficult to get inflation back to 2% absent a real recession. I'm totally against the rate cuts that have already occurred. And certainly against any more cuts.
It will be interesting to see how things look after the Tariffs set in. Another year or so. What annoys me most I think is in the Trump packaging. That we were getting screwed by other countries and he's going to even the score, when in reality all it does is punish American businesses. And I said it operates like a tax, but in reality that's not true. It operates like a fine. It's more punitive than a tax. It's like a fine for doing business overseas. And had he been transparent and packaged it that way as an inducement to bring manufacturing back to the states it would at least be honest. As it stands the framing is bullshit. Most people don't understand who actually pays these tariffs
It will be interesting to see how things look after the Tariffs set in. Another year or so. What annoys me most I think is in the Trump packaging. That we were getting screwed by other countries and he's going to even the score, when in reality all it does is punish American businesses. And I said it operates like a tax, but in reality that's not true. It operates like a fine. It's more punitive than a tax. It's like a fine for doing business overseas. And he been transparent and packaged it that way as an inducement to bring manufacturing back to the states it would at least be honest. As it stands the framing is bullshit. Most people don't understand who actually pays these tariffs
That's politics. Nobody calls socialized healthcare what is really is either. It's free healthcare and a human right! Unfortunately, 95% of society is clueless and/or too lazy to figure it out, so phrasing becomes everything. Trump and the DNC are really good at.
Trying to predict the future will always make one look foolish.
Particularly in short term... And I consider short term as like 5 years
I think it's going to be difficult to get inflation back to 2% absent a real recession. I'm totally against the rate cuts that have already occurred. And certainly against any more cuts.
I'll throw out a bold take. I had a somewhat similar outlook as you, but am starting to think deflation might become a thing (or at least a concern). I'll have to see how the next several quarters go, but growth is robust while inflation has soften some and deficit spending decreased. Bonds might be offsides. If I would have said this 18 months ago, I would have told myself to go fly a kite.
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