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Not a good job report for July

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Aloha Hoosier's avatar
(@aloha-hoosier)
Famed Member

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Per Grok they are accurate.

Yes, based on the July 2025 BLS report and revisions: foreign-born employment has declined by ~735K since January, federal government jobs down 84K. Native-born gains exceed 2M with real wages up ~1-2% adjusted for inflation under Trump.

The revisions came out today, those numbers in your Twitter twit’s tweet were reported during last month. Amazing! LOL!


This post was modified 9 months ago by Aloha Hoosier
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Posted : 08/01/2025 3:18 pm
hooky
(@hooky)
Noble Member

Posted by: @zeke4ahs

@receipt-keeper Right. I think that’s common, isn’t it, that they are always revised and the first is just an estimate.

Yeah, it's all surveys and estimates off of those surveys.  There isn't a business that has closed it's books for the month when they send out the jobs numbers.

I've heard that YoY, fewer businesses and individuals are taking the time to fill out surveys, which is causing sample sizes to shrink over time and leading to even bigger revisions.  No clue if that's true, but it makes sense if it is.

 


Hope is not optimism, which expects things to turn out well, but something rooted in the conviction that there is good worth working for. - Seamus Heaney, Irish poet and likely Hoosier basketball fan.
POTFB

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Posted : 08/01/2025 3:19 pm
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Arthur Dent's avatar
(@arthur-dent)
Noble Member

The revisions paint a dismal picture:

Not only did employers add a disappointing 73,000 jobs – well below the 105,000 expected – but payroll gains for May and June were revised downward by a whopping 258,000. That left May’s additions at 19,000 and June’s at 14,000, the weakest performance since the nation was climbing out of the COVID-19 recession in December 2020.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/08/01/july-jobs-report-recession/85473564007/

Those are not 3 months of good numbers. Of course July's could always be revised up.

 

 

 

 


ReplyQuote
Posted : 08/01/2025 4:22 pm
Gros Louis's avatar
(@gros-louis)
Noble Member

Posted by: @arthur-dent

The revisions paint a dismal picture:

Not only did employers add a disappointing 73,000 jobs – well below the 105,000 expected – but payroll gains for May and June were revised downward by a whopping 258,000. That left May’s additions at 19,000 and June’s at 14,000, the weakest performance since the nation was climbing out of the COVID-19 recession in December 2020.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/08/01/july-jobs-report-recession/85473564007/

Those are not 3 months of good numbers. Of course July's could always be revised up.

 

 

 

 

Almost no doubt that they will be revised up once the BLS person is fired and Trump gets some lacky named dbm in place to put whatever numbers he tells him to in the report

 


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Posted : 08/01/2025 4:30 pm
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McM666's avatar
(@mcm666)
Famed Member

@gros-louis like the Biden numbers that were inflated. Sad.  Our gov sucks.


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Posted : 08/01/2025 4:46 pm
UncleMark
(@unclemark)
Famed Member

Posted by: @arthur-dent

The revisions paint a dismal picture:

Not only did employers add a disappointing 73,000 jobs – well below the 105,000 expected – but payroll gains for May and June were revised downward by a whopping 258,000. That left May’s additions at 19,000 and June’s at 14,000, the weakest performance since the nation was climbing out of the COVID-19 recession in December 2020.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/08/01/july-jobs-report-recession/85473564007/

Those are not 3 months of good numbers. Of course July's could always be revised up.

There is nothing about this economy that says Booming! no matter what the Huckster In Chief wants you to believe. At best, things are flat. That's not necessarily bad, given the circumstances and the chaotic rollout of Trump's trade "policy." Uncertainty and fear is what kills an economy, and Trump promotes uncertainty and fear every single day. 

 


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Posted : 08/01/2025 4:49 pm
BradStevens
(@bradstevens)
Famed Member

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Posted by: @aloha-hoosier

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Looks amazing to me.

https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1951266734171726291?t=BLWWkkEvfv47VI4Apr1m7w&s=19

Do you understand that claim is based on the unrevised statistics? 

 

Per Grok they are accurate.

Yes, based on the July 2025 BLS report and revisions: foreign-born employment has declined by ~735K since January, federal government jobs down 84K. Native-born gains exceed 2M with real wages up ~1-2% adjusted for inflation under Trump.

 

So now we are going to add a “native born” identitarian category?


GIF

 

 


ReplyQuote
Posted : 08/01/2025 5:31 pm
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NPT's avatar
 NPT
(@npt)
Estimable Member

Posted by: @zeke4ahs

@receipt-keeper Right. I think that’s common, isn’t it, that they are always revised and the first is just an estimate.

And the first number is just about always off in a way to help the party in power. And the second number, if worse, is released at a time when they hope most people won't notice it.

 


This post was modified 9 months ago by NPT

There are 10 types of people in this world, those who know binary and those who don't.

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Posted : 08/01/2025 5:51 pm
Shooter
(@shooter)
Noble Member

@bradstevens 

40% of Nobel Prize winners for the United States in chemistry, medicine, and physics since 2000 are not native-born

But we don't want those dirty foreigners any more

And they sure don't feel welcome here


"You can't make someone listen to reason if they aren't willing to think"-- Ray Bradbury, Fahrenheit 451

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Posted : 08/01/2025 5:59 pm
snarlcakes's avatar
(@snarlcakes)
Noble Member

@bradstevens it's something they should keep tabs on if they want a functioning country.


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Posted : 08/01/2025 6:02 pm
dbmhoosier
(@dbmhoosier)
Famed Member

Posted by: @bradstevens

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Posted by: @aloha-hoosier

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Looks amazing to me.

https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1951266734171726291?t=BLWWkkEvfv47VI4Apr1m7w&s=19

Do you understand that claim is based on the unrevised statistics? 

 

Per Grok they are accurate.

Yes, based on the July 2025 BLS report and revisions: foreign-born employment has declined by ~735K since January, federal government jobs down 84K. Native-born gains exceed 2M with real wages up ~1-2% adjusted for inflation under Trump.

 

So now we are going to add a “native born” identitarian category?


GIF

 

 

America first.

 


ReplyQuote
Posted : 08/01/2025 6:31 pm
Gros Louis's avatar
(@gros-louis)
Noble Member

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Posted by: @bradstevens

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Posted by: @aloha-hoosier

Posted by: @dbmhoosier

Looks amazing to me.

https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1951266734171726291?t=BLWWkkEvfv47VI4Apr1m7w&s=19

Do you understand that claim is based on the unrevised statistics? 

 

Per Grok they are accurate.

Yes, based on the July 2025 BLS report and revisions: foreign-born employment has declined by ~735K since January, federal government jobs down 84K. Native-born gains exceed 2M with real wages up ~1-2% adjusted for inflation under Trump.

 

So now we are going to add a “native born” identitarian category?


GIF

 

 

America first.

 

 

DBM

https://twitter.com/theonlyesta/status/1951069417254559980?s=46&t=RqAzYMWPzX-OinhMiXHkng

 


ReplyQuote
Posted : 08/01/2025 7:07 pm
JDB's avatar
 JDB
(@jdb)
Noble Member

Posted by: @mcm666

Posted by: @hooky

When all the “new foreign investment” that Trump is touting is followed up with shovels in dirt to start the construction process, I’ll start to believe that something is changing for the better.

i dont' believe we're going to see that in any meaningful way.  in my industry, which is massive overseas, a 15% tariff is annoyance but certainly not enough to make people rethink production

reshoring was underway since before COVID. It’s happening, but mostly for valuable products. Start making shit of value!

 


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Posted : 08/01/2025 11:57 pm
McM666's avatar
(@mcm666)
Famed Member

@jdb too hard


ReplyQuote
Posted : 08/02/2025 12:37 am
Socks-Shorts-1-2-3-Swish's avatar
(@socks-shorts-1-2-3-swish)
Trusted Member

It's like firing your dentist when he tells you that you have a cavity.


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Posted : 08/02/2025 1:01 pm
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