@twenty There's all these crazies on Instagram that I like to read who give financial panic advice. They're kind of I guess at the intersection of finance and tech bros. Anyway the theme they've all adopted, or co-opted, is that there's about a five to ten year earning window left and then that's it. AI will be so ubiquitous that government will have to undergo a transformation with basic guaranteed income blah blah to offset the loss of jobs. And in keeping with that, if you don't already have "yours," you're fucked, is the alarmist narrative they're pushing.
I don't believe it will be as prevalent as all that but I do believe we will see some craters in certain industries and the question of how we're going to provide for what will presumably be a significant number of unemployable people will begin to cut to the forefront of pressing issues.
So @twenty , what are you going to tell your kids re careers, college, majors, etc.?@bar-down true anything is possible. But I'm now on the safe side of the financial / human capital paradigm. I'd be exceedingly uncomfortable to be counting on human capital going into these next decades. But if it all falls down than nobody is safe. I think that unlikely.
Great question.
Short answer is I don't yet know.
They are in grade school still, so we've got time. I won't recommend the path I took. Picking majors and careers to chase money is something that I'm hoping they won't need to do.
@twenty There's all these crazies on Instagram that I like to read who give financial panic advice. They're kind of I guess at the intersection of finance and tech bros. Anyway the theme they've all adopted, or co-opted, is that there's about a five to ten year earning window left and then that's it. AI will be so ubiquitous that government will have to undergo a transformation with basic guaranteed income blah blah to offset the loss of jobs. And in keeping with that, if you don't already have "yours," you're fucked, is the alarmist narrative they're pushing.
I don't believe it will be as prevalent as all that but I do believe we will see some craters in certain industries and the question of how we're going to provide for what will presumably be a significant number of unemployable people will begin to cut to the forefront of pressing issues.
The worst is that all good investment returns are now in private money. It's more and more difficult for the average investor to even access the next generation of opportunities. Most firms are now staying private for years and years longer.
There are ways, but it comes down to personal relationships
As Scott Adams used to say, tell them to study subjects that build their talent stack. Critical thinking skills, along with problem solving, creativity, and analytics are vital. (Some of your posts about studying philosophy made me understand how useful philosophy is in these areas.). Trade skills, music, fine arts, education, health care, law, and other occupations that are non-routine, non-repetitive, and require high-level decision-making and application of morals and ethics, will always be useful.
All of these skills are diminishing as higher ed focuses on group-think, consensus, and conformity.
@co-hoosier AI will replace most of those occupations. Competition BBQ. The market isn't saturated. Multiple revenue streams with winnings, sponsorships, advertisers. Partner with a good digital media professional. Use the money for school to get a competition grill, smoker, and truck.
AI proof....
@co-hoosier AI will replace most of those occupations. Competition BBQ. The market isn't saturated. Multiple revenue streams with winnings, sponsorships, advertisers. Partner with a good digital media professional. Use the money for school to get a competition grill, smoker, and truck.
AI proof....
Anything the state requires licensure will most likely carry on
AI will replace most of those occupations.
Only those who don’t have the skills to perform these occupations would believe this.
@co-hoosier I have a meeting next Wed with two lawyers I know who left to invest in an AI company and now are working with it in some capacity I don't understand. I know nothing about AI really. I'll report back to you next week after I meet with them.
Ask them if AI can create a persuasive argument that the Virginia gerrymander is unconstitutional at either the federal or state level or both.
@twenty I would agree with that. I was in college in the 90s so enjoyed the 80s Stranger Things vibe and much of what you wrote. The rub, at least by way of comparison to a 70 year old, is that we don't know what's coming. We "could" have a bunch of years of shit coming down the pike
That 70 year old didn't know what was coming either.
I was a teenager in the 80s and I had no idea what was coming. The wall coming down and the "Peace Dividend" shook up what we thought might be coming and then didn't pan out the way we thought it would impact us.
Nobody knows what's coming next, we just have assumptions and biases that shape what we think is coming.
The worst is that all good investment returns are now in private money. It's more and more difficult for the average investor to even access the next generation of opportunities. Most firms are now staying private for years and years longer.
There are ways, but it comes down to personal relationships
I've been tempted to put some money into PSP and PEX, but the expense ratios (especially PEX) seem prohibitive and make me think it's not to be trusted.
Hope is not optimism, which expects things to turn out well, but something rooted in the conviction that there is good worth working for. - Seamus Heaney, Irish poet and likely Hoosier basketball fan.
POTFB
That 70 year old didn't know what was coming either.
I was a teenager in the 80s and I had no idea what was coming. The wall coming down and the "Peace Dividend" shook up what we thought might be coming and then didn't pan out the way we thought it would impact us.
Nobody knows what's coming next, we just have assumptions and biases that shape what we think is coming.
For sure. I just meant the 70 year old already has those years in the bank so knows they were good. A guy in his 40s doesn't.
AI “literacy” will separate most haves and have-nots. Even with business owners or maybe especially. Competitive advantage margins will be razor thin and volatile. Longevity never certain.So @twenty , what are you going to tell your kids re careers, college, majors, etc.?@bar-down true anything is possible. But I'm now on the safe side of the financial / human capital paradigm. I'd be exceedingly uncomfortable to be counting on human capital going into these next decades. But if it all falls down than nobody is safe. I think that unlikely.
Great question.
Short answer is I don't yet know.
They are in grade school still, so we've got time. I won't recommend the path I took. Picking majors and careers to chase money is something that I'm hoping they won't need to do.
COH is right about thinking skills but those are abundant enough at the top levels. Thinking skills plus AI literacy will be prerequisite to prosperity.